Eldon-Online

From One End To The Other

It’s all very well isn’t it to think that after many years of work and knowledge acquisition you are up to date with, and still a participant in, world affairs. Maybe still invited to take part in debate, public or private, that you think is meaningful. To demonstrate that you are worldly wise and making some sort of important contribution.

I wrote recently about the inevitable rise of Artificial Intelligence, pointing out that the ability to prevent this new technology from taking over the human race in due course was at least for the time being still very much in our control. Then this week we have had “important” events like the Bitcoin rise - a bubble if ever I saw one, a boost for Theresa May in the Brexit negotiations albeit a small step forward in what - for me - is not a clever strategy to leave Europe in this manner, and President Trump leading us all closer to global violence with his announcements about Jerusalem.

And then I was brought back to earth with a bump!

I was in Dubai and had been invited by my colleagues at HSBC Middle East to attend a workshop for young  people about finance. Right up my street, you might think. But actually it has been a long year what with one thing and another - no complaints, it’s what I do because I want to, although the health bit in the middle was something of a distraction (mending nicely thank you) - and after a particularly taxing week I admit it, I was tired and honestly, less than enthusiastic.

However, I duly turned up with some fellow Directors to participate in this “workshop”. It was in a warehouse-like space that was rented out for events like this, and after a general briefing on what was expected of us the attendees came to join us. Sixty of them, boys and girls - aged variously from about 14 up to early 20s. Many of them - but not all - born in the UAE of originally immigrant parents who themselves had been in the UAE maybe for 20 or 30 years. A few recent arrivals from Syria/Palestine. None of them with citizenship they could use, the majority of them without schooling or at best very elementary, from low-income families, a few with jobs - but my goodness, all of them eager and with aspirations and with hope. A hope that was etched on their faces as they sought even the most rudimentary knowledge and took in the sort of advice that said, for example, if you were lucky enough to get a job and receive money, the idea was to resist the temptation to immediately go and spend it. All of it. “Save” was the word of the day

They were asked to create a future time-line of their lives and put their aspirations on paper taking into account that everything they did cost money, and pointing out that the more attention they paid to learning the better equipped they were to get jobs, and fulfil some of their dreams. The young 16 year old boy on my right said “you know, dreams never come true”. I asked him how he knew, and of course he didn’t really have an answer but it was a belief borne of the life he had lived so far. I gave him and the others at my table some of the background to my life (readers of my Blog know the history) and said that although I agreed life was made up of many combinations of things including luck and opportunity you also had a part to play in making your own luck. He understood what I was saying although I’m not sure I convinced him - but despite that, he did still want a better future. And he wanted to work for it. And as for the young man opposite me - he will either rise to the top of the pile or sink (and then probably come back up again). He gave a really good impromptu rap performance and was prepared to get up and give a presentation on some of the things we had spent time talking about - with a bit of prompting. But lively - oh yes.

The aspirations were interesting. They wanted to go to college and study; own their own businesses - anything from construction companies to car sales to restaurants. But what I found really interesting was that many of them wanted to devote some of their time and money to helping those who were even worse off than they were. That was a lesson for me - not a lesson from me! 

I left the workshop refreshed, energised and ... humbled. And it was not purely and simply that I had been a part of something that I was not initially looking forward to and realised that I had done something that was truly worthwhile, and clearly I was impressed by the enthusiasm of the young people themselves. But I was also very taken by the dedication of the adults who were giving their time to try and ensure that these children had better lives than their parents, and were in a position to make a difference, including I am pleased to say colleagues from the HSBC team in Dubai who are fully involved and unstinting in their support.

Similar sentiments have been expressed by others - but in relation to the UAE most vocally by HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Ruler of Dubai, - whose view is that if we do not educate our children we are making them vulnerable to pressures representing elements that will only lead our world down a slippery slope of temptation and make them easy targets for the recruiters of terrorists.

How true!

The Artificial Intelligence Phenomenon

Let me start with a non-artificial albeit not very intelligent, apology.

When prompted to re-start my Blog-writing at the beginning of this year I was determined not to let there be large gaps in production ... and if the gaps re-appeared, then to give it up for good for lack of time. I have let two and a half months go by since my last submission - it's too long, and it was not for lack of trying to get something out. I won't go into the details - they're boring, but if it happens again then I will need to heed my own advice.

Anyway, back to the topic in hand. I think we all understand what is meant by the word artificial - being something that is unreal, insincere, often man-made, but I - for one, am less clear about the word intelligence. For example I have never felt able to describe myself as being particularly intelligent. Lots of common sense - I believe, but intelligence? Although the basic definition of intelligence says something along the lines of "having the ability to learn or understand" is something that all of us, including me, can do to some extent or another. But I suppose I just look around me at people who I would consider to be far more intelligent than I am based on a variety of criteria, and judge myself accordingly.

We are now, though, bombarded daily by the term "artificial intelligence". That ability of humankind (forgive me for being so gender-specific - but I haven't found hupeoplekind yet!) to create the artificial means to do many of the jobs that are undertaken by living people in the workforce now. And there are two particular aspects of this that concern me.

Firstly, the dire warnings being talked about where we will find all of our jobs taken over by machines, leaving us out of work, out of money, and out of our minds with boredom. The second, and the follow-on, is the lack of solutions being put forward to deal with this phenomenon.

On the first issue, I recall various predictions in history where warnings of impending doom due to automation never fully came to fruition - at least in the time frame predicted. The industrial revolution comes to mind, so does the advent of accounting machines that automated much of the back office work in banks for example - and Automated Teller Machines that were introduced in the mid 1960s and were going to revolutionise bank branches and result in hundreds of thousands of bank job losses over the subsequent 10 years. And yes, banks are now beginning to close branches, but for a variety of reasons other than the ATM revolution, but it has taken 40 more years for those early predictions to come to bear, and the job losses have not been so dramatic as people have been trained in other roles. The world has moved on and we are still able to find paid employment.

Let's not be ostrich-like and stick our heads in the sand, because the speed of change and of development has undoubtedly changed the landscape. So we should recognise that artificial intelligence - in whatever format - will indeed become a feature of our lives and the lives of the generations that follow us, if they are still around!! But I nevertheless feel that human ingenuity, creativity, empathy, emotion and basic common sense has the ability to help us deal with this "brave new world" - and that we have time to prepare,  as long as we do not ignore what is happening around us.

The second issue is that in the midst of all these warnings about the future, and how useless we are going to become, is the general lack of suggestion about what we are going to do about it. There is a school of thought that suggests - as in the paragraph above - that robots/artificial intelligence, whatever, will find it hard to develop such things as common sense and creativity. They will not be programmed that way, although they could perhaps go some way to developing these emotions through copying. We do, though, need people to seriously consider our options, and to start now. Obviously use robotics and artificial intelligence to undertake the work being done by manual labour as long as they can do it effectively, or to interrogate data files at a far greater speed than can be achieved by the human brain (the banks should benefit from this in their "Know Your Customer" programmes, rather than chasing us all to determine the source of the last deposit made to your account) and therefore take the drudgery out of that work - but what then do you give those people to do who have been displaced. This for me is the big dilemma, and brains far greater and better than mine need to be looking at the various options.

It is all very well creating an environment in which we are all living longer (and therefore becoming more prone to developing dementia because heart disease and other potential killers are being better diagnosed and treated), but if we have nothing to do and no way of generating a living wage - what then? I said earlier that dire predictions have been around over the centuries and we have always found a way to deal with them - but this seems to me to be somethings different. The people that I speak to about it all acknowledge that AI is the future. The question is how do we keep it under control and stop it from eventually taking over the world - our world in case you needed reminding.

We have to remember that - at this moment in time - it is us that is developing AI, not the other way round. We are in control - so far. As a result, there is of course one sure-fire way of ensuring this does not become a problem which is to recognise at what point you need to pull out the damn plug!

Where Social Media Fails Society

I actually love technology ... most of the time. All of those good things that it has brought to our lives to make them easier, simpler, quicker ... and enables us to keep in touch. With my travel schedule, family in various parts of the world, visiting offices in different locations and all that entails, technology including social media means I am almost always in touch or at least contactable. That's the upside. But I worry about a growing downside - especially involving the technology we call social media.

 

During the last few months I have started to hear the word empathy used an awful lot more than I have previously. It is a valuable human trait that we are in real danger of losing, and if we do so it will be to the detriment of the world, but let me explain the connection.

 

On August 18, 1988, George H. W. Bush received his party's nomination for President of the United States of America. In his acceptance speech, he called for a "kinder, gentler nation." A sentiment echoed and welcomed I am sure by the majority of people around the world, not just in the USA. Fast forward 30 years and I'm not entirely sure where it has eventually led us, but I don't see much of that sentiment in evidence today. And it has been a growing concern for me. For example, go back to the trolling that was going on when someone supported a particular course of action that others disagreed with - only to find they were then subjected to unidentified and vitriolic attacks on them via "social media", by people who did not have the courage to be identified as being behind an alternative viewpoint and - worse - using highly charged language to vent their anger.

 

But it really sank to low depths last week in Hong Kong when, following the suicide of the 25year old son of the Undersecretary for Education, cowardly internet users were taunting the Undersecretary, and "congratulating" her on the suicide. Whilst she may not have been the most popular recent appointee to Government - that is absolutely no excuse for such behaviour. Thankfully many right-minded people have come out publicly to express their outrage at this misuse of social media: although that said, perhaps not quite everyone! The Students Union said they regretted the suicide but also said that one should ensure that the concept of freedom of speech must be respected. What?? Oh well ... that's all right then, say anything you like because it is "freedom of speech". I am sorry, no it's not!!! Freedom of speech, yes I am all for it, but where do these people get their ideas that making callous, cruel and personally hurtful remarks against an individual while hiding behind an anonymous mask counts as "freedom of speech"? It goes against every idea of common decency, and indicates a complete lack of empathy.

 

But look, isn't the cause of this becoming embedded in the way in which children grow up today. (And before you jump up and down - no, not all children). Having been handed a means of communicating with other people without actually having to look them in the eye, or allowing them to operate remotely behind an alias - even using someone else's pictorial identity they suddenly adopt a meaner, less caring attitude to life. They will of course point out, they have lots of "friends" - except they haven't met many/any of them yet, at least not in real life. And they feel emboldened by their ability to use strong language and words - and feel "braver" for it because they do not run the risk of identification. So far anyway - although I am very against the "big brother" scenario that this suggests is the only way to curb these outrages.

 

And the other downside to using "social media" for communication purposes is the inability to understand from the inflections or tone of voice a situation that a real life conversation would convey. The ability to misinterpret, sometimes deliberately, what has been written is high - often because it has been written ambiguously, which leads to further, misunderstandings, hate mail even ... and all in the name of "freedom of speech". A child brought up with the ability to be empathetic would stand a better chance of understanding.

 

The amount of hate in our world is on the increase, which means we must encourage our children to use social media for all the right and positive reasons, but also teach them to communicate verbally with one another. To understand emotion, to create feelings and speak out their thoughts directly to one another and to adults so that if they have a point of view - they should express it clearly and confidently,  and watch the reaction on someone's face as to the impact it has.

 

But for now ... a kinder gentler world? ... I wish.

Ignorance Is Not Bliss.

I have come to the realisation that a number of my Blogs recently have been directed at, shall we say, an older and occasionally wiser generation. That said I had lunch a couple of days back with a young man, Hong Kong Chinese, who is definitely of the next generation and who I found refreshing, stimulating, capable of straddling the line between tradition and tech, and who gave me renewed hope for the future - unless Artificial Intelligence (A I) gets there first of course. But more of that meeting later … in another Blog perhaps.

But in this one, I wanted to get something off my chest (my waist line too come to that), and this is serious.

Along the general theme of "Ignorance is Bliss", I get continuously surprised by people of my generation, give or take plus or minus 12.5%, although particularly in the lower numbered ages, who do not take good care of themselves properly in the medical sense of the word. Not true, you will say. We are all very conscious today of what we have to do and eat. Just have a look below and tick the boxes that apply:

 Watch the diet:                ✔︎     

Do some exercise:             ✔︎

Remain mentally active:    ✔︎

Annual Medical:                x

The most common reason for the last one getting negative reviews? “Well, I’m never ill and I don’t want to disturb the doctor unnecessarily”. The chances are, though, that if you don't do something about regular check-ups you certainly will be disturbing the doctor - with cause! And what does it take - a few hours (very few) of your time. You just need to get to a medical centre somewhere that specialises in such things, and if you are fortunate enough to be in Asia then you have a variety of options (and prices, of course) at your disposal.

When I was in full-time employment, I was lucky enough to be “forced” into having an annual medical exam. So, when I retired I thought I should keep it going. Let’s face it, if you have a car that is ageing, most Governments these days require you to have it regularly tested to ensure that it remains roadworthy and to fix the parts that aren’t. It may be running along quite nicely on a day-to-day basis, but you don’t necessarily spot a worn tyre or brake pad. 

So it is with our bodies. We think we are running along perfectly well, and suddenly the bottom falls out of everything and you find yourself in deep trouble - or worse, someone else finds you.

Which of course leads me into why I am now more than ever convinced that having regular health checks is a good idea. I was the recipient of news - some time ago now - as a result of my annual medical check that indicated a cancer marker was on the increase, and common sense together with a dose of self-preservation suggested I needed to pay attention.

Until writing this Blog, no-one outside my family (obviously excluding members of the medical profession who have been involved) had any idea about my diagnosis. I didn't want to make a fuss about it. It was a cancer of the sort that has a much better success rate of cure than others, particularly if you catch it in time. It was identified, monitored, scanned and has now been dealt with, hopefully fully successfully. Only time will tell of course but everyone involved is pretty confident. I would, prior to, during, and after this whole process, defy anyone to have identified that there was anything out of the ordinary with regard to my health.

And I would have happily kept it that way but my point is this. Through the whole process from start to finish I have not felt ill, weak, or in pain. I therefore would have seen no point whatsoever in going to see a doctor. However, if I had left it to grow and to get worse heaven knows what stage it might have got to before I became another potentially negative statistic.

Let's be realistic, can you be tested and be negative on day 1, only for something unpleasant to happen on day 2 - yes of course you can. But that tends to be the exception.

If your dearly beloved old banger (non native English speaking Brits might need to click the link for that one) needs a regular test to ensure that it is being lovingly maintained and cared for, doesn't it make sense for you to do the same? It's funny, most of the women I talk to about annual medical exams get it (but may not do it). But to everyone of at least a certain age - and even all you macho tough guys out there, do yourselves a favour and do something - if not at least for you but for your families and loved ones -  and get a regular check up.

This truly is a case where ignorance may not be bliss at all.

 

Targets Of Terror - A Global Issue

Not for the first, or sadly even the second time in my Blogs do I repeat the phrase ... "coming to a city near you".

Attacks on innocent people - as in Barcelona and Cambrils - just cannot continue. Who gives these people the "right" to take other peoples lives? And in this case it came a little too close to home as very good friends were but 100m away from the Ramblas incident, and other friends just a little further. It was by chance they escaped any harm. And listen - it's not going to stop any time soon. Police and security services around the world stand very little chance of catching every little worm that creeps underground with the intent of doing harm to people - and believing that if they die in the process then they go to heaven, or whatever they call it. They want to destroy people - any people and if Muslims also get caught by this murderous intent, then the terrorists don't care. They also want to destroy places of worship - other than Mosques of course. Why? What is it that drives them?

Of course there are probably many simplistic reasons that we can all think of ... it is attractive to people from a rotten lifestyle with no hope of betterment, or no jobs through lack of education and the promise of a better life as promised to them by a person more educated than they are. Someone with the gift of persuasion.

And let's be frank, we have heard persuasive orators before. Hitler was one, as was the odious cult leader Jim Jones who led many people to their deaths. But if we are talking persuasion - and although I could not and would not put him in the same category as the other two but merely use him as a example - look how successful evangelists were; Billy Graham for example, although he preached love and forgiveness - not death and destruction. But persuasive none the less.

Does anyone have the solution? Long term education should be one possibility, but how long does that take to bear fruit - and who checks the content of the "education" anyway? In a rather novel twist I noted the other day an initiative being taken in Egypt where a group of Imams have established an "Advice Centre" on one of the cities Metro stations. It is they say "A means whereby they try to distinguish between the Islam twisted by extremist groups and the true meaning. It's hard" they say "as the extremists quote Koranic verses out of context. They manipulate it". It's a brave attempt and I wonder both how successful it will be and how long it lasts. But it's a tiny step. Look at the origins of this latest terrorist group, Moroccans - certainly not the first place in the world you would have looked, so terror spreads its wings.

Belief is a strange thing. I would much prefer to have things proved to me, which I don't think makes me a whole lot different from many other people, but if you can be persuaded to believe in something or in someone, I see there is an attraction. Christians have a strong belief in the teachings of Jesus, as do the followers of Islam. But unless I have totally misunderstood those teachings there is nowhere I can find that specifically suggests you need to seek out the destruction of human beings and property. If that had been the belief over the centuries, then the world would be in a dreadful state (okay - an even worse state!). This latest spate of terrorist attacks in general, and now lone wolf or small cell attacks is therefore generally new. And if it is new then there must be an opportunity to stop it by getting the right people to speak out against it. For respected leaders of a religion to condemn what is happening. To say that this is not the teaching of the Koran - but they need to do so now before it is too late. Parents need to be alert to the behaviour of their children and recognise that if they let their children go astray it will grown, to the detriment of the world.

Does the USA believe that these car attacks will not happen on their soil? I wouldn't count on it - and I wouldn't wish it on them either in the same way that I just hope it will stop, or our future generations are going to grow up in a very miserable world where Muslim communities will become isolated ... or worse, and fear will walk every street.

We must not allow that to happen ... we need a solution, now!

It Really Is Just a Numbers Game

I used to think it was only older people who developed a fixation with numbers - in particular focusing on age, with this thinking now being developed to even further degrees as the latest "miracle" drug or cure shows promise. The "fix" becomes even more pronounced as we are encouraged, at any age, to read the numbers on the packet of anything you have picked up off the supermarket shelf to see if it has too much sugar or salt or not enough meat.

But this age thing, in particular, is a worry on a number of counts. I have been surprised recently at the number of people who have become seriously worried, depressed even, at the prospect of turning 40. I am not knocking it - you can get depressed by whatever number you like, but 40 is still young. You still have - given a fair wind, decent health, reasonable genes, no world war or a road accident - over half your life to go. I have to say, turning 40 certainly didn't phase me - neither did 50 nor 60 although I confess to getting somewhat skittish at 70. But I wasn't about to bury my head in my hands and give up, say it was the end, and please bring my armchair and some slippers while I waited for the grim reaper. Particularly in my case where my hobbies (non-existent in the conventional sense) have revolved solely around being a part of the world at large, as my active interest in sport slowly succumbed to muscle tears and strains, and ultimately gave way to disinterest because I wasn't involved anymore. But that said I do have some ideas about what to do with my future time :-)

I read last week about the amount of discomfort being expressed in some quarters because the pensionable age is rising in Britain to 66-67. The protesters were saying that they had worked hard all their lives and it wasn't fair that they now had to wait longer until they retired and were able to take a break. So let's try and put that into perspective. When pensions were first introduced by Bismarck towards the end of the 19th Century, when the majority of our forbears worked until they were carried out feet first in a box if they hadn't been caught up in a war, and life expectancy was in the low 50s, it was decided that people who made it to 60 and were still working should actually be entitled to be looked after by others and allowed to stop working. I understand that if we applied that principle to today, where longevity in the developed world is well into the 70s - and with the developments in medical science probably making it a good deal higher, then we should probably only allow people a pension when they reach 105!!

But look, it is what it is. The media are fully of advertisements extolling the latest means of living longer and longer. This involves it seems exercise in various degrees of vigour, with which I do agree, but depending on the particular week you are in, it extols the virtue of a particular product that has been described as a miracle towards living longer, but which is found two weeks later to be the complete opposite. And on that subject I was only reading today about a miracle cure for cancer that nearly killed the user!!

Really, we are blessed by being given an opportunity to live - and yes, I agree some are more blessed than others by virtue of where they are born and to whom. And if we can stop Messrs, Trump, Kim, ISIS and Al Qaeda from waging war on the world at large we stand a reasonable chance of living longer. And does the body become more frail? Yup. Do our brains become less active? - Well ... maybe. In some cases yes, but in the case of our bodies and our brains there are things we can do to assist. Miracle foods? Supplements you take daily? The latest exercise craze? For me - moderation is a word that comes to mind. In just about everything. You look at what gets served in restaurants these days in the developed world - portions that are too large. We are eating because it is there - not because we need it. Everything we do, should be done in moderation although I do confess to having trouble finding a suitable definition from time to time.

But stressed about age? Is there a great deal of point in doing so? Every day when you wake up you should expect to get through it and to make the most of it, at whatever age you are. Even if you have been dealt a rough set of cards - make the most of them. Be brave and look forward. Add the two numbers of your age together. If you are 65, think of yourself as being 11. Wasn't that a good time? Re-live it, and live for the day.

Who's Bluffing Who?

"I don't know", as Teresa Norton used to say in her newspaper column some years ago, "maybe I'm nuts", but am I the only person in the world who has no real idea what is happening in this war of words between the USA and North Korea? Everyone has a "view", but I'm not sure on what such views are based.

I was always told that if you make threats, there comes a time when you have to carry them out or be seen as weak.

So, the USA is saying to the young, inexperienced despotic leader of a country that still believes it is at war "Do something like that again - and we will destroy you". Meanwhile, the young leader who either possibly believes he's finished anyway, or who is totally convinced of his infallibility and therefore can't lose, continues to push. He doesn't carry out precisely his earlier threat but comes somewhat close. What does the USA do then; send yet another warning, or act? Or, does he keep us waiting by saying - okay "I'm good to go - but not yet" - as he just seems to have done. Perhaps as a result of getting out of bed on the right side this morning - but then we have the next day.

This "game" of brinksmanship is becoming dangerous for the whole of mankind. I do not want to even think about who is going to blink first because unless there is a peaceful settlement I see this ending in tears all round. In the case of North Korea the deaths of many totally innocent but brainwashed, undernourished, ill-educated people who have no idea what truth looks like. Collateral damage may well spread to South Korea, given the proximity of the North Korea border to Seoul, or fallout could affect China and Japan. This will set wheels in motion that could be almost impossible to stop.

And the irritating thing about it all is that we - that is you and I - can do nothing about it. How comfortable does that make you feel?

It seems there will be many in America who applaud President Trump's "tough" stand, and say that anything the USA does is only in defence of its borders and safety. Okay, I get that - but how is it that the President is saying one thing, openly and publicly, thereby provoking an open challenge to someone who doesn't really care and who is clearly enjoying the attention, while the President's closest advisors seem to be saying "the best solution is a political one, and that is what we need to achieve". The rest of the world, it would appear, is in agreement with the sentiments expressed by the advisors. One man tweeting threats, versus a few billion people who think there is something wrong with that methodology. A President, let us not forget, who has only just and under pressure, read from a script a statement condemning the white supremacists in the USA.

There is no doubt a huge amount of complexity here - there always has been as far as North Korea is concerned. As I said, the North still believes it is at war and that while the Korean war ended for the rest of the world in 1953 this was not reflected by the North. A political or economic solution whereby the South absorbs the North (a la Germany - East/West) is not feasible - the South could not afford it for a start, but even if there was a cooperation agreement between the North and the South, Japan would become very nervous because if there is anything on which the "Koreas" agree it is a burning sense of ill-will towards the Japanese. (I was going to write hatred - I am not sure today if that is still so prevalent). But it has surely not gone unnoticed that Japan has significantly increased its defence spending. Then if the USA were to somehow take control of North Korea - not something would appeal to the Chinese at all - you would have a situation where US troops could be camped on China's border - which would not be tolerated.

There are no easy answers. Think for a moment about the psyche of North Korea's leader. A man who with no compunction has had his brother killed, his closest uncle killed - and who does not really bother about what the world thinks. In the opposite corner you have someone who - from a relatively safe distance, depending on whether the reports of North Korea's nuclear capability are accurate or not (remember, only one agency has so far reported this to be fact) who is prepared to make threats which, if not supported by actions, are going to indicate weakness.

If North Korea backs down fully - and at this stage it looks like a very big if - I suggest it will almost certainly be because China has done something positive. Of course President Trump will claim credit for "forcing China's hand" even though China has been concerned for a very long time about the behaviour of North Korea but have acted behind the scenes.

Call my bluff, a long running series on British radio, was described as a duel of words and wit. In this particular global version there's plenty of words and zero wit. This is a more ruthless version where rather than getting points you will be counting success by bodies.

Gimme, Gimme, Gimme

You have to be of a certain age to remember the Abba song Gimme, Gimme, Gimme - although the line did go on to say "a man after midnight". Well the first part of the song, and therefore the Blog title seems to apply neatly to some recent revelations, but for the follow-on lyrics frankly in my particular case the last thing I want is a man after midnight. Each to their own.

But the Gimme bit ...? Maybe I'm getting overly sensitive (unlikely) but there has been much in the news of late about pay and pay differentials. It's a subject that has been a favourite theme of mine over time although more in the nature of my concerns over widening gaps between "haves" and "have-nots" and without it being controlled the possible fallout that will eventually arise.

It all started with the appalling revelations about the disparity in pay in the BBC between the men and the women. Are Chris Evans, somewhere in the £2.2m p.a range, or Graham Norton with his salary plus the money from his production company worth the money they apparently receive? Certainly when Jeremy Vine was asked on his radio show if he thought he was overpaid he was stumped for an answer. (And just as an aside, I haven't heard too many people ask the question about whether Wayne Rooney is worth his £13.5m a year.)

Well, I guess I would have been stumped for an answer too, because you should pay people based on the value they bring - and the audiences they entertain, and personally I think these entertainers work very hard. As a result, and for once, I actually don't have a problem with some of those pay cheque amounts.

I do however have a problem, big time, with the disparity in pay between the men and the women at the BBC. It's a total disgrace. And I certainly don't buy the argument of one of the higher paid men who said it was the fault of the agents not to have negotiated better terms for their women clients when in many cases the agents represent both sides of the gender equation in the same business, and would have been aware of the disparity.

The Gender/Pay gap is not however my focus here. It is money itself which, like it or not, causes many problems. You will say it's human nature. You look over the fence at the house next door that is bigger than yours and you want one the same. You look at how much people spend, and the shops they go to and you are envious. So you seek to enrich your position and almost get to the point where your ethics and morals head for the door. If you have a decent amount of money already, the little devil inside you still wants more and doesn't care what ploys you use to get it.

Maybe I am more naive than I thought possible, but I have witnessed recent cases where a job seems to be undertaken because of the money being paid to do it, rather than for the sake of the job, and the responsibility that comes with it.

I am not referring here, by the way, to those people who need to take any job with any pay, because they cannot live otherwise, but this is from people who have already worked and are comfortably off - without being rich - but for whom money is their driving force. That said, we also have the recent plethora of fraud cases where people have been claiming money for disabilities and then found to have been competing in various sporting events or climbing mountains.

Personally I find it disappointing. We seem to have fine-tuned the well-trodden path of give and take into an art form called take and take. We are becoming selfish - not universally, let me add because being an optimist I still believe there are more unselfish people out there than there are selfish ones.

But how much is enough, how much is too much and how much do you need? The argument that a professional footballer is worth £10m a year, for example, because he has a limited playing career suggests that if he plays for only 3 years at that level he will earn £30m. Divide that by a 45 year working life gives you £650,000+ per annum. What's the average wage in Britain - some £28,000 a year? Hmm. There's something odd here, isn't there?

Anyway, back to the point. We are living in a world where greed has become commonplace. And where, sadly, in some countries where there is a welfare society it has become easier to take money from the Government than to go and find a job. I am not saying that everyone is lazy but if you are faced with a situation where you get paid roughly the same amount for going to a job every day ... and paid for not going to a job - what do you choose? It lowers self-esteem and raises the sense of entitlement - for which someone has to pay!

Which brings me back to where I started. This was from the premise that some people who should know better seem to be happiest when singing the opening line of "Gimme, Gimme, Gimme..."

 

Hong Kong 20 Years On - Almost Halfway!

Okay I admit it, just couldn't resist a comment and before anyone thinks about telephoning HSBC so they can "distance themselves from my comments" - I have been nowhere near the Bank,and the comments are entirely my own. Well, maybe not entirely. I was kind of given a gentle nudge by a comment on my last Blog - and having read a lot of hand-wringing and critical comments about the lack of democratic progress in Hong Kong during the last 20 years and how shameful it is, I guess I had to make some sort of appearance.

Let me say upfront in case anyone believes as a result of what I am about to write that I am either a rabid left-winger or a turgid liberal. I believe in fair play, and a degree of equality but also believe that if people are successful through their own efforts they should be entitled to reap and retain the benefits. I do therefore believe in, and am in favour of the democratic process. 

Perhaps we should put this in context. Firstly, if the UK had been serious about a democratic process being installed in Hong Kong perhaps they should have thought about introducing it 30 years before the "end of the lease" rather than right at the last moment. And if indeed they had thought about it, they managed to keep the concept very quiet.

Also, wasn't there an effort to introduce more democracy into the Hong Kong process just a couple of years ago, and it was rejected because it was not exactly to the liking of some people? Look, if you are creating something new, and although you might hope it was perfect the first time round, is there not a case to be made for launching it and then dealing with the inevitable imperfections as they arise, working on them once you have perhaps a little more time to think them through?

I would also maintain that while the zeal and the effort over the "demands" for democracy as evidenced by the Occupy Central movement was relevant to a few, the real causes for discontent were more related to the cost of housing and job security for the young of Hong Kong; practical issues that remain to be addressed, I believe.

But the comments made about my last Blog were telling, with one section in particular reading "... democracy is not an end in itself; it is instead one means to achieving an end, which end could be defined as 'liberty and freedom from tyranny, plus the pursuit of happiness under a just equitable and effective Rule of Law as determined by a reasonable consensus of society'.

A lot of truth in that statement, in my opinion, and it suggests that despite all the demands for democracy there is also an element of be careful what you wish for when many of the things you want, perhaps not all of them, are already present. Also, in many countries (no, not all I accept) I believe that the so-called democratic process is tainted by lobby groups who try to ensure that they will be well-represented in the parliament (or by whatever name it is called) so that they can continue to operate in a manner favourable to themselves. This leaves the people, who really believe there is a democratic process in place, no better off than they were before. The rich remain protected but at least those who have a vote believe they have had their say. So far, anyway, until the wealth gap becomes more telling as it is likely to become.

I accept this view of democracy is at one end of the scale, and one pursued by people like Noam Chomsky in his, "Requiem for an American Dream". In addition I do believe that a democratic process, properly administered and regulated is the best way to go, but I have become increasingly cynical about the validity of many so-called democratic elections where there are strong beliefs, often supported, that ballot boxes have somehow been "stuffed" to the advantage of an incumbent leader. Is this the sort of democracy we want? And if you look around the world today at the "great democracies" are they really producing the sort of results and leadership you want?

There is no perfect solution, of course, and quotations about democracy are plentiful. Nevertheless, I think we do need to look at the situation of Hong Kong in detail. Is there a general opinion that we would prefer to have a better and freely elected representative body to discuss the issues that affect Hong Kong? If the answer is yes, then it has to come with the caveat that it must actually do things (and I mean "do") that will benefit Hong Kong in the long run both for the population at large but also a place to do business. I would need to be convinced that this would be the situation.

We also have to be realistic. Hong Kong was under a 99 year lease from China. That lease is now over (and has been for 20 years), and the "original owners" - like it or not - have the last word now.

Twenty years on and thirty to go - we still have time to put ourselves into a position of relevance and strength within the context of China as a whole, and for sure the world in general. The last 20 years have been, shall we say, "interesting" - we need to work at making the next 30 years into a story of which we can be proud.

 

Optimism Must Win In The End

I am a regular reader of a weekly magazine that is, rather creatively, called "The Week" where amongst the really good stuff there is a fun "Wit and Wisdom" column. In the last edition there was a quote I had not seen for a long while that goes "What the caterpillar calls the end, the rest of the world calls a butterfly". It stopped me in my tracks because I was only the other day bemoaning the fact to someone that I have gone from being a person that is usually on the side of optimism, over to the "dark side"!! I have tended, rather simplistically, to say you have two choices in life - you can be happy or you can be sad, and I know what I would rather be. And you also have to remember that having wealth and material possessions does not necessarily make you either happy - or a better person.

I have to confess, looking at recent events all around the world there do not seem to be a whole lot of things that are a cause for optimism. The negative energy that is evident almost everywhere - and trending - is a concern. I have commented previously on the growing trend for nationalism, and I know I am old fashioned, but I also look with some dismay at a world where a sense of entitlement is evident in some countries. Lots of people with their hands out but not prepared to work, believing that people who have managed to accumulate savings over the years should somehow be subsidising others. Compare it to those countries where they actually have nothing and are deserving of some humane support - but where their leaders do not seem to suffer from malnutrition or the lack of a decent place to stay. Add to that the people who are of the opinion that their view is the only view and that no-one else is entitled to be heard. And that particular phenomenon is one that infiltrates everything from politics, to religion, to everyday life. Excepting of course my wife who is always right - well, most of the time.

Then there is the growing despair over the competence and general ability of Governments to deal with important issues of the day. Of course they are usually elected to look no further than the end of their particular garden fence, or they won't get re-elected. They are a little like the financial analysts community who have turned major companies into quivering wrecks in their desire to produce good quarterly results to avoid criticism by the analysts who only see the short term and very rarely the long term vision so badly needed by those companies.

Hence a growing sense of gloom in my recent blogs over insular thinking, short-term goals, and persuasive but unhelpful rhetoric, some of which has a somewhat aggressive tone. All leading to a pessimistic streak that is unusual.

But you know, what's the point in sitting around and moping? Either accept the negative and be miserable - but please don't come and talk to me about it and make me more miserable. Instead, adopt the philosophy of the wonderful comic character Wilkins Micawber who appears in David Copperfield by Charles Dickens and is the eternal optimist. Often beaten down and suffering all sorts of problems he says in one piece ... “Welcome poverty! Welcome misery, welcome houselessness, welcome hunger, rags, tempest, and beggary! Mutual confidence will sustain us to the end!” Perfect.

We take a view today that we are living in the worst of times. It's a comment I have used in various speeches throughout the years because you only have to think back to the lives of most of our parents (if you're my age), grandparents and great grandparents. Think what they lived through. If it wasn't strikes, riots and civil commotion - which we still get today in some places I grant you - it was all out war, or it was an influenza virus. The 1918 flu epidemic killed an estimated 50 million people in a matter of months - three times more than had been killed in the First World War. 

I am the first to admit that I have been lucky to have been born when I was, in the country I was, to a hugely supportive parent. But what happened since has not come on its own; a lot of hard work and effort, supported by others who I hope I have supported in turn. A world that has seen some good time. And it continues to grow and evolve. Things I did that disturbed my elders is replicated today by the next generation, it will continue and it was ever thus. But we have been through good times. There are more people out of poverty today than there were a decade ago. That said, yes, I do recognise and do not like the fact that the wealth gap is widening: there is no need for that sort of greed.

But we should be optimistic about progress. We need to stop gazing at our navels and bemoaning our fate or it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Look instead at the good that is in people - in ordinary people - for example after the appalling fire at Grenfell Towers in London recently. Look at the actions of ordinary people after the terrorist attacks in Britain - religion didn't matter; ethnicity didn't matter, rich or poor didn't matter and it demonstrated to me at least that there is more good in the world than bad.

I think, like Mr. Micawber, that we have cause to believe that optimism will win in the end - just as long as we don't let the lunatics take over the asylum.