Eldon-Online

Middle East - A Groundhog Day Scenario?

I am sure many readers of this Blog will be familiar with the 1993 comedy movie "Groundhog Day". If not, and you're up for some light entertainment, do watch it. But Groundhog Day is defined as "a situation in which a series of unwelcome or tedious events appear to be recurring in exactly the same way".  I don't know about you, but certain parts of the Middle East are beginning to look to me more and more like a Groundhog Day scenario.

Mind you, I don't remember anyone with true knowledge of the Middle East saying that the aftermath of the Arab Spring was going to be easy. The region is a conundrum and a kaleidoscope. And never forget the interpretation of the now famous Nostradamus prediction that the starting point of World War III will be the Middle East! 

The current nervousness all started with Arab Spring. The hopeful new shoots of a revolution that would turn the Middle East into a democratic paradise by deposing despotic dictators, or overturning at least decades if not centuries of feudal rule. The bands struck up a jolly tune to herald the new order, but although the band plays on, the music has turned funereal. And suddenly we are displaying shock, horror and dismay. Alright, it wasn't meant to happen this way but neither should we be as surprised as we apparently are nor should we have expectations of a rapid solution.

I have to say that I still get amazed by the number of people who, as with China, look at the Middle East as if it is one largely homogeneous region and that everyone inside behaves roughly the same way, has the same aspirations, and that they all want to be like the West! How wrong can they be? (Statement, not a question!). 

But trying to explain the differences would take a book, not a Blog, so I just want to look quickly at two existing situations in the Middle East that are currently in the news.

Egypt, one of the most significant players in the Arab Spring movement, experienced a popular uprising (the media never seems to find an "unpopular" uprising, do they?) in 2011. I have to say it seems longer ago than that! But the origins of that uprising were bedded in a desire to get rid of Hosni Mubarak's extended and corrupt leadership rather than a deliberate attempt to enter into a democratic process. It was a move welcomed particularly by Western interests who were overjoyed at the prospect of another democracy being established but I was publicly wary, concerned that the country was not really ready for democracy. There were too many "factions" involved with differing interests that were more concerned about self-preservation than the good of the country. And by the way, I must quote a phrase I heard yesterday at a Conference I am attending, which went along the lines of "just because you have a vote, doesn't mean you live in a democracy"! Quite!

But back to Egypt.

The election of President Morsi was an indication that a country that had generally accepted, but didn't always truly practice secularity, (ask the Coptic Christians for a start) was electing someone who though outwardly moderate was nevertheless more fundamentalist than many people would have preferred. I suggested in a Blog at the time that perhaps the new President was nevertheless deserving of a chance - and he was at least more open than Mubarak. But three months into his Presidency, Morsi was beginning to look more and more like Mubarak. He wanted to create a cocoon round himself and his cronies that could have put him in perpetual power. Oh dear! And not surprisingly, it was unacceptable to many of the people who put him in power, although this point seems to have been lost on the West.

After a period of self-restraint, and I do not condone military intervention in national domestic disputes - most of the time - the army intervened and with promises of early elections, some form of stability was restored. But we should remain cautious of the "what next" scenarios. Fresh elections are likely to be fought on largely religious lines as opposed to economic, social and political concerns, and the outcome as well as the future will continue to be uncertain. In other words, don't expect real democracy in the short to medium term because I fear you will be disappointed.

The other issue is, of course, Syria.

I was, and remain, disgusted by the Assad dynastic dictatorship and wished for nothing more than a swift resolution by the Arab League. This is not a Western dispute. We all hoped for the overthrow of that regime with a return of power to the Syrian people - despite the fact that once again we are unlikely to see a true democratic process. That said, it may be more manageable in Syria than for Egypt, where the population is four times greater than that of Syria. But I fear it is too late.

If Western forces attack Syria, what would they hope to achieve? And for many reasons I applaud the British Parliament's decision not to support Cameron's initiative at this time. And if America wants to sulk about that decision, it's up to them. Lest we forget, it was based on lies and flawed information that both countries attacked Iraq - right outcome of course, but undertaken for the wrong justification - and how has Iraq benefitted from that action?

If Western, or any, forces attack Syria today and oust Assad what will be left behind? A bunch of factions, mostly hostile to the West, and no longer representative of the Syrian people. It's not a great solution for the future.

And as for the rationale now for an attack - was gas used in Syria? Certainly - but are we absolutely certain who used it? I make no excuses for either side in the use of gas, whoever used it, but unlike what happened in Iraq - if an attack is to be made on Syria, or more specifically on the dreadful Assad regime, we must be sure we have it right this time, and given the delays so far is another week really going to make a dramatic difference?

Is there any possible good news out there? Watch Iran very carefully!

Crumbling Empire ... Where To Now For The USA?

Why is that people always get to use the best titles before I get there? (And why do I get so side-tracked when I am trying to write blogs more regularly?) 

I had thought about rushing to print with a piece called “Eye Spy” when the revelations made public by Mr Snowden hit the public domain. A man who clearly broke the law, but whose views of ethics and morality seemed to hit a chord with the global public, leading to much justification being put forward in support of his actions. Nevertheless, no matter how much courage the man has in speaking out, I was always taught that you were not entitled to take the law into your own hands. But like so many things, does even that get justified by an “… unless…”?

Clearly snooping on the affairs of others when it is unjustified is – even in our new world of transparency – a disgusting habit. And to try and justify it by rather petulantly saying “Well, everyone else does it” does not actually impress me much. I was also always taught, “two wrongs don’t make a right”.

No wonder America is, or was, called the land of the free. It is free to criticize everyone else. It is free to allow its citizens to run around schools armed to the teeth and kill young children. It is free to say, “we are the arbiters of good taste, and good governance”, and we have the best rules that must be followed by everyone else because we have got it right, and if you don’t follow us then you have got it wrong! And we will punish you, without recourse, but don’t think about calling us to account in return.

Apropos the “land of the free”, I came across an article in The Washington Post from January 2012 that provided in somewhat less emotive terms “Ten reasons the US is no longer the land of the free”. So, I thought, perhaps the comments I have made from time to time in these Blogs that have been critical of the USA that led some readers to believe I was anti-American (conveniently ignoring the fact I am critical of lots of places, if I find something to be critical about), were maybe hitting a raw nerve or two.

Nevertheless I was a little surprised during a discussion I was having with an American friend a couple of weeks back, when he suggested America was behaving just like an Empire of old. And if I accepted that as a theory, then I should note that its “power” was coming to an end. Soon. Caused by the emergence of new economies geographically, some high-handed behaviour domestically, and a growingly vociferous lack of acceptance by many countries – by US allies even - that the USA had the monoply of getting it right.  And the power of the US economy, evident particularly since the end of the 2^nd World War, was in terminal decline.

Personally I had never thought in terms of the “American Empire” – so I started to look it up and found that many others apparently had thought of it! Stick phrases like “The end of the American Empire” into your favourite search engine and the number of people who have already come to this conclusion may overwhelm you. And there was me, in my total naivety, not even knowing they were one.

So where to now for the American Empire? If history is anything to go by, nowhere that great really.

The British at one time managed to have a huge Empire, which basically denuded many countries of their natural resources and their wealth, leaving nothing much behind by way of “compensation”. Great administrators the British, but look at the old colonies of Africa and how they are managed today – and how poor they are.

Other Europeans, for example the Dutch and the Spaniards, had bits and pieces of Empires, and the Portuguese had the odd colony.

Step further back in time to the Ottoman and  Athenian Empires and that most original of the “Classical” Empires - the Romans, from whom the word Empire (imperium) originated. Where are they now? Shadows of their former selves.

Some believe that as we move forward we are in for an “Asian Empire” – and perhaps we are. Note, not necessarily a Chinese Empire, but an Asian one; a more likely scenario, in my opinion, than an African or Latin American one. Maybe an economic empire, which has probably been the overiding hallmark of the American Empire – although Korea, Vietnam, the Cold War, Iraq, Afghanistan and a few others cannot be ignored.

Or perhaps we are missing something here that is much more fundamental.  If we go back to the 15^th century BC (or the more PC BCE) and the then New Kingdom of Ancient Egypt, ruled by Thutmose III, was huge, and 12 centuries later you had the Assyrian Empire (located in what is now Northern Iraq), followed by the Median and Achaemenid Empires (both Persian). Don’t they say history repeats itself?

So that’s what the Arab Spring is all about! Now we know.

Change ... Or No Change. Part 1.

There is a game show on British television which having started in Holland must exist in some form or other in additional countries, called "Deal ... Or No Deal". It's a game of chance where you hope to walk away with more money through your own luck rather than skill, than you are being offered from time to time by a faceless banker. Sounds a bit like real banking at present!!

There's no real point to that story other than that it provided the thought behind my Blog title today. For those of you who know I have not been active of late, I was thinking to myself ... in the time I have been away what's changed in our world? And the answer, as it seems to be in many "soaps" is lots on the face of it but precious little in reality, or if I were really showing off I could have called the piece "Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose", in other words "The more it changes, the more it's the same thing".

The Middle East in general, Syria in particular, is not in the news quite as often as previously so you might expect all has quietened down. If you do, you would be wrong. Assad still believes he will come out of his war unscathed. Heaven help us if he does, but at this moment in time even if he were to lose there is no great certainty that peace would follow, as there are too many factions installed in Syria. Remember too that Syria is a "new country" relatively speaking. Under Turkish rule from the early 16th Century it came under the French in the early 20th Century becoming a military republic in 1963.

The region is probably also going to be heading back into the newspapers once the Iranian elections start to grab some attention and then there is Egypt which, for my money, has always been a major key to Middle Eastern stability. It's simmering like a pressure cooker. Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan - the list of potential trouble spots continue. And Israel, currently more hawk than dove, (more war than peace), cannot be left out of any solution. So, lots going on even if it's not much in the headlines, but not a lot has changed.

Europe looks decidedly uneasy. You have a comedian in Italy capturing a large share of the vote in the last general election, on a platform of getting out of any previous agreements made with the EU that would continue the austerity measure which, in my view, sadly must continue - although not in a solely cut, cut, cut environment. You must have growth too.  And Mr. Berlusconi, who seems to be desperately seeking election to avoid being tried on sex-related and corruption charges, is obviously in some Italian minds a "credible" leader. Either that or they just want to see what the hell happens next. 

Mr. Hollande, the French President would appear to be seriously out of his depth with the country getting into deeper and deeper trouble, and even Mrs. Merkel with the immense job she has done in holding it all together in Europe is going to face something of a backlash in her own country. So, even if much has been happening, has anything changed? Not really.

Oh wait, there is of course a significant change ahead in Vatican City following the resignation of the Pope. A brave move, in my view - but what hasn't changed, disappointingly, is the number of churchmen in high places who have been admitting to past indiscretions of a sexual nature. And just because these people have been falling on their crucifixes does that mean the younger generation of priests have not been doing the same sort of thing? This appears to have been a plague, passed from one generation to another.

And that little island off the coast of mainland Europe is also struggling. I actually think many of the measures being taken by Mr Cameron's government have a semblance of sense in them, but if the old adage which says it is "going to get worse before it gets better" is true,  then the Conservative party is going to be voted out of office before it does get better and Britain will be plunged into financial chaos by a new populist administration with all the hand-outs and borrowings. Maybe Scotland DOES have the right idea with wanting independence! (Please don't take that last comment seriously). 

It seems to me that the problem with politics, politicians and national economies is that everything ends up in a compromise. Can we not at least for a short period of history (during my lifetime would be nice), put the best people into those important jobs that affect the countries in which they live, irrespective of their "party" lines?  Which might take me neatly into the USA (doing better, I think), Latin America, Africa and then Asia, but at the risk of writing too much in one go, that will be for Part 2 very soon.

Why Don't You Blog Off?

I have just gone through my annual Blog review, wondering whether now is the time for me to stop blogging and move on to other things. It was an even more thoughtful process this year because I have not written very much in the last two or three months. Clearly this was due to some circumstances beyond my control, and by the way I must thank those who enquired about my health. I think it is safe to say that I am now fully recovered.

Anyway, my review process is pretty simple really. I start by asking myself why I do it, does anyone actually read it other than family and a few stalwart friends, and what actually am I hoping to achieve by writing a few of my random thoughts down on a computer? And it is really the latter thought that exercises my mind the most.

My Blog is most definitely not an ego trip: some morbid desire to hang on to the past. If I write something, I want it to be able to inform, or provide a perspective on events that happen within the world in which we live today. Perhaps viewed through the eyes of experience from a generation that is already living longer, and which is active for longer, than previous generations. I am very conscious, though, that there is much opinion already out there – available immediately. And although I may not agree with such opinion, are mine any more relevant or should be respected than the opinions expressed by others? Opinions to which they are clearly entitled.

Historically, the Blog really started because I was still being asked questions by a number of journalists, so I thought it easier to provide a “general” comment on issues in which they were interested out of which they could pick the bits they wanted. But, not surprisingly the questions from them have slowed over time – let’s face it I have been retired (from full time employment, anyway) almost 8 years – and although I know the blog is still read by some journalists, they are mostly Hong Kong based, and they are interested in Hong Kong and HSBC! But my own interests are much broader than that.

We are impacted in Asia by things that happen elsewhere around the globe. Particularly economically. Our future safety is wrapped up in what happens in the Middle East and in North Korea, and undoubtedly other places. But also amongst certain communities that profess to embrace tolerance, but who by their actions demonstrate a flagrant disregard of their own teachings. And as I have continuing roles in the Middle East region, as well as Asia, I have other thoughts to share.

But this is not just about economics, and politics and security – important though they are. It is also about demographics, employment, education, food and water supplies, nationalism both economic and territorial. And it is about older people – like me, who are still able to contribute, and it’s about our children and our grandchildren and the world in which they are living, surrounded by technological and medical advancement – both the good, the bad, and the very ugly.

There is so much going on out there in our world that you just cannot become an ostrich and pretend that if you don’t see it – then it won’t see you! The media can inform, but it can also misinform. It can interpret, and it can misinterpret. By way of example I read an article recently in a respectable Australian business newspaper that was writing about how difficult it was going to be for international banks to operate in China because of the restrictions being imposed by the authorities. It quoted a couple of recent cases that, in their opinion, justified their line of thinking. But I happen to know the precise story behind one of the examples quoted – and I have been advised by a reliable source about the other one and can, with confidence, say that the report while well-written and indeed convincing, was also free from reality.

For this reason, despite the blog commentator who has described my blog, if I may paraphrase, as being written by someone in the winter of his life and who he therefore thinks may express views that are of less relevance today, that even though the old lion may not run so fast as before, he can perhaps still finds ways to make his presence felt.

So conclusion? Another year I think, and then we’ll see.

What Did I Miss?

If you don't get out much, as has been my misfortune of late, you start picking up all sorts of "rubbish" information. For example, were you aware that "soap operas" - now shortened of course to just "soaps" - got their name because the original sponsors of these long running fictional dramas were the major soap companies? I certainly wasn't.

Another feature of soaps - not that I watch them, but as I have been told - you can be watching one over a period of time and then not do so for a matter of months, but when you come back to them you can apparently pick them up virtually from where you left off. You don't seem to have missed much.

So it has been for me! Before I took to my bed Barack Obama was President of the USA - but under "serious threat" from Mitt Romney. I recover to find the USA still has President Obama. The battles in Syria go on, albeit despite the dangers globally they have taken a back page. Egypt still hasn't found any solutions as a result of the Arab Spring - but seems to be degenerating, which was the other option if they didnt get their act together. The Eurozone still hasn't bitten any kind of bullet, as a result of which they are in disarray, which was the expected outcome of not taking any action. China has established its new leadership to cover the next ten years. Although it is only new to the extent of confirming what everyone already knew some time ago.

So, what did I miss in the last six weeks? Precious little, it would seem. The moral of the story? Take a holiday. Have a break if you can still afford one and have a job to come back to, and you will find not much has changed. 

And, of course not to be outdone at home - Hong Kong's beleagured Chief Executive C Y Leung is still facing questions about illegal structures, bus and minibus drivers still drive too fast without due care and attention, and the focus on business and those little things that might drive Hong Kong to retain its important role in Asia, get pushed further and further backwards and swept up in the general news.

Just as an example, a little over a week ago the UK press picked up on a report issued by the highly regarded Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The CEBR report said that "London has lost its crown as the world's financial capital by number of finance jobs to New York. And it will fall to third place behind Hong Kong by 2015". (The bold script is mine). Did this get reported by any of our Hong Kong media, or were they too focused on a highly intelligent member of our Legislature, who wears totally inappropriate T Shirts to the Chamber and throws things at people? Oh! Perhaps I missed it!!

The report is actually good news - but we do seem to have trouble in bringing ourselves round to the point of publishing things that are good. Is it because we don't really believe them?

I do seriously wonder if there is any possibility that we will get to the stage where the "Government" can work together with the Legislative Council, and perhaps the business community in its broadest sense, to the overall benefit of Hong Kong and it's future.

Publish the good news and the successes, damn it, and  put some serious thought into keeping Hong Kong's status highly regarded in the world. Then there will be no need for the front pages of our newspapers to focus on silly shirts and relatively minor issues, or for people to feel the need to wave an old colonial flag.

This does not mean sweeping the important things under the carpet. It does not mean ignoring the calls towards establishing a democratic process for the election of some, hopefully, appropriate legislators and a Chief Executive, but it does mean leaving room on the front pages for some of Hong Kong's achievements.

We are becoming just like a soap opera - close your eyes for a month or two and nothing has changed. We do not have the luxury of floating in a sea of inertia.

Currency Changes? Old Hands For Hire!

In April 1970, a small group of Britons assembled just outside the walled gates of the city of Muscat in the Sultanate of Oman; a city where at sunset they closed the main gate (Bab al Kabir). To enter thereafter, you could only go on foot through the Bab as Saghir (the “small gate”) and needed to be in possession of a fanoos (sometimes called a "butty"), a hand held lantern so that your face could be seen.

 The foreigners were on a mission, and took up residence in a small local house built next to a nearby wadi. It was a mission carried out under the direction of the Sultan with the full cooperation of the military forces. The start of the exercise depended on the sighting of the new moon. 

But before I get totally carried away by the opening remarks of this potential spy thriller, I should perhaps wind the clock back a little and tell you what this is all about.

 I have just attended a reunion in London of some former colleagues, one of whom recently wrote and published a book about his professional life, which started back in the 1950s. When I first met him he had two jobs – Heavy Plant Driver. He was a bulldozer driver on a building site in Oxfordshire, drove a motor bike and spoke and dressed appropriately to his role. His part time role on his tax form? Financial Advisor to the Sultan of Muscat and Oman – in which position he also spoke and dressed appropriately! He was the leader of the team in Oman in 1970. The mission? To go around the whole country, one the size of Britain excluding Northern Ireland, in two weeks gathering in the local currency – Indian Rupees, known as Gulf Rupees and the last country using them – in exchange for the new currency – the Riyal Saidi, named after the Sultan, Said bin Taimur. [Of course the name of the currency was changed just a few months later when HH Sultan Qaboos, the current Ruler and Said's son, took over the running of the country.]

 I was the youngest in the team, and was given the easiest route, which was up the Batinah coast in the company of five clerical staff, all Indians imported from other countries around the Gulf, one local interpreter, 25 troops mainly of Baluchi origin (and glad to have them on my side), one British army Major under contract, five landrovers, three 3 ton trucks – and tins full of cash! 

We would stop in various pre-determined villages and towns and set up "shop" either in a date grove, or an old mud fort, or in an army base. It's a long story, really, and while it was tough going at times, the memories are all good.

(Yes, I'm there!!)

But fun story though this is, the whole thing just set me to thinking.

If Greece is going to leave the Euro, as it might, then maybe closing the borders for two weeks to collect in all the Euros in existence there because they are no longer legal currency and handing out the New Drachmas would be the answer.

And if so, there is an old team around somewhere with all the relevant experience - indeed possibly the only people left with any experience - but payment in healthcare costs please!!

 

The ABC of Finance

Now, you may have landed up in this Blog by accident because you were searching Google for something learned or maybe educational, on finance. Perhaps you wanted a forum to exchange views with finance industry participants. Or you may just be curious about the title. Whatever it is, read on. By the time you have discovered it is not exactly what you were looking for, you will have finished it anyway!

But first to the "A". A happy letter - it starts the alphabet, but is now a letter feared in Europe because it is the starting letter of that other "A" word - Austerity. A concept that some European leaders (not that Greece seems to have found a leader yet, following their elections), seem to regard as a recipe for disaster. A concept that politicians from the left seem to find has a particular appeal for their voters, especially those in the "sunshine belt" of the Mediterranean . But I bet those same politicians don't run their homes the same way they want to run their economies. If they want groceries, heating, clothing - they work out what they can afford, and spend within their limits - or close to them. And if times get tough, they cut back on various things. That is austerity, so I wonder which bit of Austerity they don't understand.

They want growth, but they need money to grow and they don't have it. Where does it come from then - the printing presses? Yes, up to a point but then we all know what happens to countries that just print money - eventually it all catches up with them and they enter a period of depression. Worse, much worse, I would suggest than a period of austerity. Oh yes, and another thing, who suffers the most - who has to pay it all back eventually? The children, and their children and inevitably, even their children. What great parents you all turn out to be.You voted for yourselves a comfortable life without having created the means to pay for it but, just like your household bills, they have to be paid eventually.

Sure, some people get it. While M. Hollande may have been victorious, yet the margin was not as large as it could have been, and he only received a little over half the votes which doesn't suggest a landslide, because almost the other half didn't want him! But look at the poll results for the far left. A huge success for them.That should worry Europe!

And has Europe given up worrying about Greece? I saw today that the leader of their far left says Europe would not dare throw Greece out of the Euro. Really? Alexis Tsipras might regret such a bold statement. But once again, did you notice in Greece the rise in popularity of a neo-Nazi party in the polls. Be wary Europe. It does not look good from where I am sitting.

"B" in the Blog title is for Bankers and Brides. Actually, I was originally only going to talk about brides under "B" - and at a safe distance from my daughter who could suffer sense of humour failure if I write this incorrectly, but it was in relation to austerity! My extremely talented and beautiful daughter (what do you mean I'm biased - well of course I am - but she is!), is about to get married - in a couple of months actually. Made a wise choice - Scottish accountant; they don't come much more careful than that - (but good luck son)! I was merely going to say that for weddings, austerity is not a word on the lips of many! But it's worth it - and I am NOT spending more than I saved for the day!

But then my thoughts on brides got neatly hijacked by Mr Dimon and his J P Morgan Chase colleagues, with yet another example of the excesses that continue to give banks and bankers a bad name, reinforcing the view that the profession is run by a bunch of banksters.

One of the greatest critics of new regulations, claiming they stifle business, Mr. Dimon has quickly been "up front" in saying that they got it badly wrong. USD2bn wrong at the last published count, (which is already a lot) although there were some rumours on the street I hang out on that the amount was actually quite a bit higher. Nice of Mr. Dimon though to be so refreshingly honest, and for senior people in his firm to accept responsibility and leave already. But in an honourable house, the buck stops with the boss who should take full responsibility. But then perhaps like the now standard "Murdoch defense", Mr. Dimon was not aware of what was going on!

And as for "C", well yes, China. For the second time in a month I find myself in the Middle East at the request of people there, to go and talk about China. Talk about a region which has strong historical links with the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Links that were put on the back burner during the last couple of hundred years with the rise (and subsequent decline) of British naval and trading dominance, the subsequent rise generally of the West, and then the growth of nationalism in China which effectively closed off the country for decades. The Middle East has the oil and gas and the money. China has money and a work force for hire. Both want to invest, but the trade links are nothing new. It is just a restoration of an old pattern.

As far back as 745 AD, or whatever the politically correct term is now, a census determined that as many as 5,000 foreigners were living in Xi'an, the so-called "eastern terminus" of the trade route from the Middle East. In terms of the difficulties of travel in those days, it represents a large community.

And today, in the North Western provinces of China, written out in this Blog in a six part series starting in July 2009 by younger son Paul entitled "Travels in China", there is still strong evidence of the Turkic minority in China known as the Uyghers. But the links have gone, so I find it fascinating that business people in the Middle East are once again looking eastwards. Wanting to re-establish ties with an emerging China - and othercountries in the region. Deciding that the future is in the East, and in what my colleagues in the PwC bit of my current working life have dubbed SAAAME. (South America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East).

And if you look at the West today, can you blame them for heading this way?

Meanwhile ... Back In The Real World

As Hong Kong waits with breathless anticipation for further raunchy revelations or alleged underground illegalities to emerge, aimed at besmirching the candidates in the race for election as the city's next Chief Executive, the world around us meanwhile has been witnessing some rather more serious issues that should be commanding greater attention from our somewhat parochial media. 

Elections, for want of a better or more accurate description, have taken place in both Russia and Iran during the last few days. The North Koreans meantime have, once again, successfully pulled the wool over the eyes of a number of countries by offering to talk about the cessation of their own nuclear ambitions in return, as usual, for food to feed their starving masses. And the odious Assad continues to kill his Syrian countrymen, women and children without conscience or any regard for humanity. Like father like son, I guess.

In the case of Russia, the election result which gave back Mr Putin the Presidency he had temporarily had to give up, came as no surprise. Well, maybe not entirely true. While the result was never in doubt in the minds of the foreign community, it surprised the people inside Russia who had been protesting en masse against his "leadership". Perceived to have had a tear in his eye when acknowledging the cheers of his supporters (he said it was the cold wind that caused the damp eyes), maybe he was crying about the fact that he had to pay people to stand and wave their flags in his support.

 But although this was supposed to have been a fair and democratic process, there are certainly not many (actually, not any) people I have spoken to who believe it to have been the case. Allegations of fraud are rife, amid concerns that this marks a reversion to the bad old days of dictatorship. We can but hope not.

On the face of it, better news from Iran - but is it? 

In the 2 March elections for the legislature, a high turnout of voters saw a great amount of support for those allied to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Almost ensuring that Ahmadinejad will not be re-elected President next year. And while the Supreme Leader is not exactly a fan of the West, he is potentially less volatile than the current President.

But how will the President react to this result - given his history? Probably quite badly, but maybe not immediately. There has been much talk in defence circles recently about the heightened level of concern surrounding Iran's nuclear capability and its attitude towards Israel. There is also concern being expressed by the same circles about Israel's potential action - rather than its reaction. The major question being "who strikes first". Not, you will notice, an "if" - but almost a foregone conclusion that a pre-emptive strike is more probable than possible. That surely is worrying.

And still in the Middle East - what about Syria? A matter for the Arab League to sort out -  Western forces really should not intervene, but this is getting to be too much. Whilst I can understand the comment made by a former British Ambassador to Syria who said that even if Assad goes the same way as Gaddafi and Mubarak - hopefully the former in my view - there is no guarantee as to what we might get by way of replacement. A regime not so cold blooded as Assad surely, but then again and regrettably, when the first wave of euphoria at the toppling of Assad is over there will be many scores to settle. Acting under orders or not, you won't get much sympathy from a mob baying for retribution. 

Yes, North Korea has pulled it off once again. How many times is this?  "If you give us some food we will be happy to talk about not proceeding with our nuclear capability"  At least feeding some of the people is the right thing to do from a humanitarian perspective, but come on people - been there, done that, or prove me wrong - Please!! And by the way - nothing on the discussion table about stopping nuclear supplies to Iran?

But, you say, why should any of this bother Hong Kong? We have no political strife, only political satire. We are economically okay. What does a Russian election, a bit of North Korean kabuki which we have all seen before, and the actions of some mad people in the Middle East have to do with us?

Well, potentially quite a lot actually.

If Russia reverts to its old ways, repression, communism, "four legs good, two legs better", markets around the world will get nervous, and China is a little close in proximity to Russia.

North Korea will remain quiet for a little while, as it has done in the past while it consumes its food (not sure who gets it, but looking at the size of the new leader I can make a guess). But then it will start to get a little belligerent again, as it has done in the past. Let's think about this. The "boy", to remain in power, needs the support of some octogenarian generals who will see, at last, an opportunity to do something they have wanted to do for a long time. Something dramatic. They won't care, but China is a little too close for comfort.

If Ahmadinejad wants to make a point to the Supreme Leader that he still has power and, like a cornered snake, decides to attack first then any semblance of stability in the Middle East goes out of the window. This will of course impact the developed world, in the midst of its fragile recovery, and it will impact China. 

And if China is impacted, so too will Hong Kong be, because most of our eggs have been invested in the land mass to the north of us!

It is not a comfortable situation in which we find ourselves, while we hide our sniggers behind our hands at the discomfort being felt by at least one of the candidates for Chief Executive. But if the global situation is not enough to concern us - or at least make us aware that there is a real world out there - also give some thought to the reaction of Beijing to our Hong Kong blues! Could they by now be fed up with their potential poster child? Will they now say enough is enough? They had their chance, but now Shanghai is going to be positioned as the financial centre for China while we really do become what others have predicted - just another city in China.

Our fate, I would argue, is clearly in our own hands.

Barbarity Is Not A "Cultural Difference".

No cartoons this time around. Not in the mood for humour as I read once more about the barbarity of certain members of this world in which we are all supposed to live in harmony together. Barbarity disguised (excused even?) in the name of "cultural differences". I am sorry but there can be no place today for the actions of men principally in parts of the Islamic world - particularly in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan with regard to women.

I have been described in comments on my Blog as an apologist for China, which I do not think I am, preferring instead to try and balance anti-Chinese Western driven rhetoric. China, a country with many imperfections which, nevertheless, is trying to improve and has done pretty well from a standing start of only a little over 30 years.

I have been described, also in comments on the Blog, as being anti-American. A comment that again I would defend, supported by many of my American friends many of whom who have actually agreed with my comments.

And I have been described to my face, accusingly, of being an Arab-sympathiser; actually by someone who has never lived in that region, no less. And on the basis that much of the world sees any Arab as a potential terrorist, I would defend myself against that comment on the basis that I know many Arabs who are perfectly decent and reasonable men - and women. And yes, there are indeed some genuine cultural differences in Islam that I completely respect.

But if Islam wants to know why it has a bad name - here is one place to start which is just not defensible.

So called "honour killings", for example, where women have been killed because they have brought "shame" to their community by just talking to the wrong person. This seems to happen in Britain, but if you want to carry out an honour killing in Birmingham England, you cannot - or should not - expect to be saved because you are "culturally different". There are laws in Britain against this sort of thing, and despite attempts in some quarters to make the country religiously neutral by making even the wishing of Happy Christmas seem somehow inappropriate, Britain is still predominantly Christian. 

And  now the recent reports out of Bangladesh where a man cut off his wife's fingers because she wanted to study is not - at least to my mind - a cultural difference. It is a pure act of barbarism and has no place in our world. It follows on from an earlier report of the man who gouged out his wife's eyes, also because she wanted to study.

We are not supposed to intervene in the affairs of other countries, but how can one stand back and allow this sort of thing to happen? Okay, so human rights groups are demanding life imprisonment for this crime, but will they get it? It will be interesting to see if the media keep an eye on it and follow up. Certainly the comments from the police chief in Bangladesh would not give me comfort that this will be treated very seriously. "He was enraged", said the Chief, "He was jealous." Draw your own conclusions!

In an attempt to bring some balance to my thoughts, the west has not always behaved properly either - but it was a few centuries back with things like the Catholic led Spanish Inquisition, and the Puritans with their witch trials. We have learnt from those mistakes. And this is the 21st Century. And whatever your religious persuasion, barbarity is NOT amongst them and is not condoned in Islam either. 

While on this rather depressing subject, I just want to share with you a link sent to me the other day by an old school friend. I hope you can open it, and that you will watch it through. It's not long and will cost you nothing, but it provides a story of hope. It is organisations like the Hoshyar Foundation, and my old and continuing favourite Room to Read that are doing so much to try and change the world for the better. Particularly by educating girls and women.

 

Libya - Liberated Liability?

And still it dominates the headlines.

The first phase of the Arab Spring - Tunisia, Egypt and the skirmishes in Bahrain and Yemen - now seems a long time ago. No significant progress or changes have been made in any of those countries, and with the Moslem world now about to enter the Eid holidays after the holy month of Ramadan, not much is going to happen immediately either. The lack of progress will not come as a surprise to many Middle East watchers, with the key still seen as being a resolution to the Egyptian "conflict". The longer the delay in appointing a new Government, the more chaotic is going to be the end result.

Syria, with the suffering and the brutality being meted out by Assad's Government troops also remains distressing and worrying, but it would be preferable that a resolution here needs to be orchestrated by the Arab League without relying on outside "help", unless it is properly sought. And it also needs to be done soon, before we get any more loss of innocent life.

But Libya is where all eyes are focused right now. And despite the positive signals that favour an ultimate resolution by what are still being referred to as "rebel forces", despite the "legitimacy" they have been given by various foreign powers, we have not got to the end game yet.

News today, for example, suggests that these rebel forces are prepared to let Gaddafi go to a "safe" country - Nicaragua has been mentioned - if he is captured alive (the odds of which, I would suggest, are remote). I would also suggest, though, that allowing Gaddafi to leave the country - humane though that might be - should only be contemplated under the most stringent controls as to his future activities, and I would with all due respect to the leadership of Nicaragua feel that they might not be able to provide the most secure haven.

Even as soon as tomorrow morning, Gaddafi may have been found - dead or alive!

But look at the resistance being put up by people loyal to the Gaddafi regime. It surprises many of the people I speak to who ask why some Libyans remain supportive of a despotic and unstable leader? Even though they have the means to see for themselves the excesses enjoyed by the family, and the cruelty with which they dealt with the civilian population. But you have to remember that Libya is not a cohesive country, bound by a common purpose. It is a country of tribal clans, some with scores to settle. And indeed, some with blind loyalty. Even the death of Gaddafi does not necessarily mean all the trouble will immediately stop. But allow Gaddafi the freedom to roam relatively freely abroad, and I wouldn't mind betting that it would not take him long to get up to some potentially globally damaging activities.

There is also the question as to how the world will behave, should Gaddafi be captured and held for trial. What would a "fair trial" look like? I am sure that there can be very few rational people in the world who believe that Gadaffi's actions could in any way be justified, and therefore the outcome should be predictable.

And in the meantime what happens now? Well, maybe Libya is about to be liberated but I fear that it is going to remain a liability for some time to come.