Eldon-Online

Life is Like .... a Toilet Roll!

I must have led a sheltered life - I had not heard that one before but someone sent me a message a couple of days back with that notation. Life is like a roll of toilet paper - it says - the closer you get to the end the faster it goes.

Ooh - how true, albeit somewhat sobering. Mind you - the trick surely is to keep another roll close by so that you can switch rolls and start again. Bit like retirement?

Someone said to me yesterday that her Father was about to retire and was not looking forward to it especially as he's still kind of young in this longer life-expectancy world, but the company policy said it was time for him to go. And let's be honest there are people for whom retirement cannot come soon enough - and then there's people like me. My argument is that currently I know things that I have learnt over many years and which still have their uses - and I am happy to share the experiences while others still want them. And in the case of the gentleman to whom I referred above, and knowing what he has been doing, there is certainly life after retirement for him. New role or new roll!

The alternative to working, unless you are fortunate enough to have enough hobbies and other entertainment to keep you happy, is maybe to sit in front of the television and scare yourself silly by watching the news.

In the (dis)United Kingdom, the best President that America has ever had - according to him - is imminently arriving to dispense more advice on how to run the country and leave the European Union. Apart from opining that the British public love him - some questions there I fear - he has even taken to anointing the people who he thinks would be the best negotiators and leaders. Although the people concerned, by and large, do not seem to welcome the interference support. Anything, it seems, to divert attention from himself, his tax returns, his tariff war (becoming a serious issue for many within the USA) and what is likely to be a higher cost of living when either the goods carry the cost of the tariffs or they don't get shipped at all.

And he is stepping into the Brexit debate - rather grandly referred to by certain people who wish to leave Europe as it being "the will of the people", which of course it was - or least just a little over half of the people who voted. Hardly a decisive majority. The other 48% who voted against leaving now have no voice it seems - unless you support the Liberal Democrats.

When you look around the world today you think of the populist trends and the rise of both right and left wing extremes, and then note the honest endeavours of many who suffer as a result of the widening (as commented many times before here) gap between the rich and the poor. Particularly when there are some among the rich who think they should not pay taxes!  No wonder the richer countries want to keep out the impoverished, the disadvantaged, the people saddled with corrupt leaders, in countries with few natural resources and therefore neither food nor water in sufficient supplies.

A world that lacks compassion generally, and no common purpose.

This might not please my Australian friends much, but we were talking the other day about what New Zealand has been doing that is positive under its new leadership. The reaction, for example, to the shooting in the mosque and the action taken over gun laws immediately. Truly genuine compassion. Contrast that with the latest shooting outrage in the USA - 12 people shot which apparently is the 150th incident this year so far where more than 4 people have been shot in one go! Carry on like this and there'll be no-one left in some places.

Nothing detrimental about Australia, of course, because I'm still looking around for places to live. Hong Kong for me is still home, but my other home - Britain - has a significantly declining appeal as a place to go, and seeing as even Mr. Trump seems to be giving advice to Britain now I'm not sure who is running the country!!

Ah well, with all that is going on it is hardly a surprise that the toilet paper comes in handy, and given the number of sheets one needs these days it should not be a surprise when you look and see that the roll is running down rather quicker that one might like! Time to panic buy?

The Year Ahead – Mixed Feelings – Part II

Whether we like it or not, and there are many in the “dislike” camp, business and economic issues are going to be particularly significant in 2015, and of course politics will play a part in this too. A major election in the UK in May, where the outcome is far from certain unless of course the Labour Party manage to bring back David Milliband. There are issues over whether Greece will stay or leave the Euro, and whether it matters more politically or economically. How are both the US and the German economies really doing, and let’s not forget China – again, politically and economically?

But for me, the questions that I have uppermost in my mind that have the potential to disrupt our day to day lives in 2015 relate to the rise of both terrorism and nationalism.

Now, living in Hong Kong you might be forgiven for thinking that not much of this affects us here, but it would also be wrong to be complacent – especially if you travel to just about anywhere else.

You don’t hear quite so much these days about ISIS, ISIL, Islamic State, or Da’esh, the various names still in use for the aggressors in the war in Iraq, although the latter name is becoming more commonly used. Should this lack of news indicate that the war against these people is being won? Certainly there have been positive gains by the opposing forces, but this is likely to end up eventually as yet another guerrilla war with pockets of resistance popping up now and again, and probably spilling across borders. And let’s be honest, the Taliban are not in favour of Da’esh either so expect a battle between both organisations.

Also, although it is hard to separate them at times – we need to keep in mind that there is a far broader, saner, more rational face of Islam than that portrayed in the media. However, issues like  the sentencing of a human being to 1,000 lashes by the Saudi authorities do absolutely nothing to promote impressions of sanity.

Recent events, particularly in Europe (Paris, Belgium, for example) – are not likely to soothe fears. In addition the rise of nationalism in many countries, for example, in the UK where the UKIP party is gaining ground, just prior to the elections: in France where the National Front is making significant gains, in Germany where Pegida – an anti-Islamic Group has been attracting much attention but also, thankfully where rival demonstrations have also been held.  But “nationalism” is not confined to Europe. A daily scan of the media – whilst it's not always accurate or objective – does report of such tendencies elsewhere.

The bigger immediate threat surely, although once again I have heard it said by a couple of commentators that it is not really a threat at all even after the Paris “massacre”, is the growth of  in-country isolated cells attacking institutions or people they don’t like, “inspired” by the Da’esh. And what happens when some of these terrorists return to their home countries - will our home security forces be alert to their return? I have to believe that in the majority of cases they will, but some will inevitably slip through the net and disappear for a while. And these “fighters” – now murderers in many cases – may well continue their fight on home soil.Don't forget that Da’esh has attracted people from the West and the East. From Britain and America, from Europe but also from Muslim populations in South East Asia, and from North West China.

We should be, must be, alert to the potential for serious mischief in 2015.

What however seems to be a common theme though is generally – not always – the people who are attracted to these terrorist organisations are often disaffected, under or un-employed, lacking education and with few alternatives in life.

Our world today is no longer confined by nice neat ethnic, religious or linguistic boundaries. We live in a melting pot of cultures, and many countries try to embrace new arrivals to their shores. But by the same token, those new arrivals must also aim to integrate into their surroundings and not believe that their new country should adapt everything to suit them. It’s a two way street – not one-way.

When I started my international banking career it was always impressed on us, not as I recall that we actually needed impressing, that in every new country we were sent to it was up to us to remember we were a guest in that country, and we were expected to learn and understand the culture in which we were working. It was a mark of respect. Today, I fear that respect has gone. Integration has gone. And, as a final point, education is playing a part in that disintegration.

I feel sorry for many teachers in many schools. They are often underpaid, underappreciated, have become "parents" in absentia by default, have class sizes that are too big and are almost dragged into a situation where they move at the pace of the underachievers in the classroom. As a result in many inner cities and some of the poorer developing countries, despite the best efforts of the teachers, we have undereducated children with minimal job prospects living in un-integrated communities. They are an easy target for recruiters to violence.

If this is allowed to continue, we will see more wanton acts of destruction and senseless killings in 2015, and I wonder where the leaders are going to come from that have the ability and the determination to put this right.

If we keep our wits about us, take our surroundings seriously, elect politicians who will serve their communities better, improve education, encourage integration, hold businesses accountable to pay fair wages and salaries and create job opportunities, maybe we will have a chance of success.

The rise of nationalism is not the solution, but I can understand why it is attractive to many. Neither are terrorist acts acceptable in any shape or form, but for heaven’s sake let’s try and re-discover respect and dignity towards our fellow human beings – whatever they believe in. Murder is not an option.

The Year Ahead – Mixed Feelings – Part 1

Oh my goodness, where do we start?

 I have to say I am not known for the consistency of my Blog writing and my 2015 New Year’s resolution, to improve that consistency, like resolutions I suspect of many other people is already out of the window as this Blog is at least two weeks later than I had intended.

 However, I was spurred into action by a comment I received from one legislator the other day who was trying to link the recent lack of activity to a suggestion I might have been ‘sat upon’ by some quarters regarding my series of Blogs on Occupy Central. To which I can only say “far from it”! As Howard Winn writing under Laisee in the SCMP pointed out last October I have always been independent of thought and expression, and my views on that movement struck a positive chord with considerably more people than it seemed to irritate a few others. That is what freedom of expression is all about – an agreement to disagree, without getting either violent or stupid about it. And if you can’t stand negative comments, don’t comment in the first place.

Which brings us to this year - and where do these years go anyway?

It actually doesn’t matter where you look, but we haven’t got off to the most wonderful of starts this year, with my conclusion being that this is likely to be a difficult and volatile year. And in part because each year our world becomes more complex and more complicated.

[In case you are wondering about the difference between complex and complicated, let me describe my understanding of the two.  Something that is complex may have many parts to it that require putting together properly, but it might not of itself be difficult. Complicated, however suggests to me a considerably higher level of difficulty that requires much work to solve it.]

There is much in my mind that I could write about, accepting that my views are no more or less valid than those of anyone else, but to keep matters manageable I intend therefore to try and keep this to two Blogs .

Oil prices this year are in sharp focus, and I heard a commentator the other day talking about the current oil price and saying that this was absolutely nothing to do with politics and was solely about a greater supply, particularly out of the US and partly falling demand. In other words nothing unusual and the market was behaving, as it should.

Well maybe sometimes I don’t understand as much as I think I do, but consider this:

The Russians have been major suppliers of arms to the Syrians who sit on the Saudi Arabian border, and whose troubles could one day just spill over into the Kingdom. The oil price slump has battered the rouble, which hurts Russia. Also I can’t see the US being terribly unhappy with the pressure being put on Russia as a result of the Saudi position.

Next, and as a result of US policy and the desire of the rest of the world to ensure that weapons of mass destruction in the hands of Iran should be moderated, the US has become rather close to Iran. No progress so far but there is a lot of wooing. Saudi Arabia in turn cannot be desperately happy with the US sort of “adopting” Iran as a favoured Middle Eastern nation in replacement of the Kingdom, but in truth they too would also feel more comfortable if Iran was less nuclear. So, oil price pressure on Iran might make them more amenable to US talks.

The idea of the US becoming self-sufficient in oil and gas through the fracking processes used, will of course have an impact on oil prices – reducing them. However, fracking is a more expensive extraction option in terms of ongoing capital expenditure, which with a low oil price if it is sustained and supported by OPEC means those producers in the USA and of course elsewhere are going to start hurting soon on economic grounds. Draw your own conclusions.

So is the current cost of oil purely based on economic supply and demand? I don’t really think so.

Oil prices, the recent situation with copper prices and the commodities market in general, the currency markets currently volatile especially after the recent Swiss announcements, and problems once more for the Euro. The potential property bubbles being created by wealthy Russians and Chinese presumably beginning to falter as wealth becomes eroded in one country and more probing questions are being asked about sources of funds in another all suggest that skittish markets are going to be the norm for a while. And watch this space if interest rates start to rise at all. There are some businesses, many small, and of course individuals particularly in the housing market, that will not welcome such a move.

So, a word of warning to those with short term memories – if you don’t understand the markets and can’t afford the volatility, stay out of them!

For all of the negatives though, it has to be said that some businesses will seek relevant opportunities and be successful even in these markets. In particular look for companies who are hiring some older people who have experience of managing in markets in a down turn. Some of our younger colleagues haven’t had that experience yet.

But enough for now. I have a few other things that are troubling me. For Part II I want to consider the rise of urban terrorism, mentioned in my columns before and to touch on associated subjects like education, integration of communities, leadership and politics – although I fear that political leadership is now an oxymoron.

Change ... Or No Change. Part 1.

There is a game show on British television which having started in Holland must exist in some form or other in additional countries, called "Deal ... Or No Deal". It's a game of chance where you hope to walk away with more money through your own luck rather than skill, than you are being offered from time to time by a faceless banker. Sounds a bit like real banking at present!!

There's no real point to that story other than that it provided the thought behind my Blog title today. For those of you who know I have not been active of late, I was thinking to myself ... in the time I have been away what's changed in our world? And the answer, as it seems to be in many "soaps" is lots on the face of it but precious little in reality, or if I were really showing off I could have called the piece "Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose", in other words "The more it changes, the more it's the same thing".

The Middle East in general, Syria in particular, is not in the news quite as often as previously so you might expect all has quietened down. If you do, you would be wrong. Assad still believes he will come out of his war unscathed. Heaven help us if he does, but at this moment in time even if he were to lose there is no great certainty that peace would follow, as there are too many factions installed in Syria. Remember too that Syria is a "new country" relatively speaking. Under Turkish rule from the early 16th Century it came under the French in the early 20th Century becoming a military republic in 1963.

The region is probably also going to be heading back into the newspapers once the Iranian elections start to grab some attention and then there is Egypt which, for my money, has always been a major key to Middle Eastern stability. It's simmering like a pressure cooker. Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan - the list of potential trouble spots continue. And Israel, currently more hawk than dove, (more war than peace), cannot be left out of any solution. So, lots going on even if it's not much in the headlines, but not a lot has changed.

Europe looks decidedly uneasy. You have a comedian in Italy capturing a large share of the vote in the last general election, on a platform of getting out of any previous agreements made with the EU that would continue the austerity measure which, in my view, sadly must continue - although not in a solely cut, cut, cut environment. You must have growth too.  And Mr. Berlusconi, who seems to be desperately seeking election to avoid being tried on sex-related and corruption charges, is obviously in some Italian minds a "credible" leader. Either that or they just want to see what the hell happens next. 

Mr. Hollande, the French President would appear to be seriously out of his depth with the country getting into deeper and deeper trouble, and even Mrs. Merkel with the immense job she has done in holding it all together in Europe is going to face something of a backlash in her own country. So, even if much has been happening, has anything changed? Not really.

Oh wait, there is of course a significant change ahead in Vatican City following the resignation of the Pope. A brave move, in my view - but what hasn't changed, disappointingly, is the number of churchmen in high places who have been admitting to past indiscretions of a sexual nature. And just because these people have been falling on their crucifixes does that mean the younger generation of priests have not been doing the same sort of thing? This appears to have been a plague, passed from one generation to another.

And that little island off the coast of mainland Europe is also struggling. I actually think many of the measures being taken by Mr Cameron's government have a semblance of sense in them, but if the old adage which says it is "going to get worse before it gets better" is true,  then the Conservative party is going to be voted out of office before it does get better and Britain will be plunged into financial chaos by a new populist administration with all the hand-outs and borrowings. Maybe Scotland DOES have the right idea with wanting independence! (Please don't take that last comment seriously). 

It seems to me that the problem with politics, politicians and national economies is that everything ends up in a compromise. Can we not at least for a short period of history (during my lifetime would be nice), put the best people into those important jobs that affect the countries in which they live, irrespective of their "party" lines?  Which might take me neatly into the USA (doing better, I think), Latin America, Africa and then Asia, but at the risk of writing too much in one go, that will be for Part 2 very soon.