Eldon-Online

TechnoTrad

I admit it: I had no idea what title I was going to give this piece. It's all about the technological world in which we live today and the surprising amount of tradition that is still around. And around almost to the extent that it might not go away any time soon, giving hope to those over and above a certain age that they still have a role to play. So I combined technology and tradition. Simple.

We are surrounded on a daily basis by reports of the advances in technology, artificial intelligence, robots taking over our jobs, driverless cars, no need for money in cash form - the list is actually endless and growing.

That growth is in the hands of the digital natives and millennials, and although facing extinction dinosaurs still roam the world and seem to revel in the fact that they are happier living in the past. No computers, they don't use ATM machines and I am sure in some cases they may even use a typewriter or have maybe mastered a fax machine. Hands up anyone under 25 who has actually seen one of these things? But how long can they hold out against advancement and a tech-savvy generation coming up rapidly behind them.

Now although of dinosaur age I have always prided myself on kind of keeping up with technology but it is growing at a much faster pace than it ever was, and therefore in time and as the brain cells start to function at a slower speed I am sure I will get left behind, but not disinterested. But you know, despite all these advancements it appears to me that there are still some traditional attributes about living in this world that are not actually changing so fast, or are drawing back from the edges of where they had reached.

 On the latter point, for example, take books. They are still being written and thereafter appearing in paper form despite the obvious online attractions of downloading them to read. There are an increasing number of people now who tell me they are going back to the paper versions of the books because they like the feel of the book and they can see easily how far they have read. It seems to be a comfort for them, and it's not just the older folk but young ones too. And I get that. Indeed my own Kindle is lying quietly in a corner at present. Having said that I read just about all my newspapers online, and 90% of the companies on whose Boards/committees I sit deliver the papers to me using technology. When you end up with Board papers for a meeting these days that run to a length in excess of War and Peace (seriously) - by using technology you are saving the environment for sure. It is of course possible to annotate those papers, but I admit to the occasional temptation to print some of them out if only to save my eyesight.

I am talking about other things too that today technology cannot replace. You can use technology to contact people easily and instantaneously. You can use various social media networks to call them, diarise meetings, exchange information - BUT you cannot use technology to substitute for human interaction. Not yet, anyway. The more traditional means of looking a person in the eyes, watching their facial expressions, gauging whether they are being truthful, reading the body language. That all takes time, practice, and in person.

Then there is that fact lurking in the back of the minds of individuals today, in what I find to be an increasingly cynical world (and being by nature one of the most cynical it is concerning even to me) is a growing mistrust of technology. Those of you who know some of the things I do in Hong Kong will be aware I am involved with Octopus cards, the almost 20 year old, and definitely ahead of its time (at the time), transport and retail touch card. We have a facility that enables people to automatically top up their cards through their Bank account but the take up of this facility in relation to the number of cards in issue is very small. I ask why.Hong Kong people love technology. I am told it is because if the card is lost or stolen and used, unlike cash which once spent is gone, you run the risk of it being topped up from your account automatically. That is true, but the vast majority of people in Hong Kong are sensible folk who would keep their card safe, and would know quickly if it were lost so they could stop it. And if there are a number of top ups being made on a card with Automatic Top up, the company will pick it up the unusual pattern and call you to ask if it is you using the card. That is from practical experience I had, and it was way before I was involved with the company.

Also, I get asked to talk to groups of people about joining Boards for example, and also about subjects like Corporate Governance. These are things that require people to understand what is needed, to do the right things, be ethical - and while technology can provide much of the background information you need quickly, it cannot yet replace human nature. If it could, we would now be heading even faster down some slippery populist slope where you are not sure whether the information you see in front of you from the media is true or false.

So the next time you get excited about the prospect of jumping into a driverless car, make sure your enemies are not tech-savvy enough to be able to drive you off the road - or indeed the 10 year old next door hasn't decided he or she is going to get their own back because you told them to get off your garden wall!

For all the advances in tech, there's still a need for past history and tradition. Maybe TechnoTrad's not such a stupid title after all.

A Choice of Topics

 Often any decision, even the wrong decision, is better than no decision.

                                                                                            Ben Horowitz

I started off by thinking I was going to comment on a report I read earlier this week on the subject of strikes in Britain and the demands being made by the unions for a fairer distribution of corporate profits.That would have led to a discussion on the wealth gap. Then I got sidetracked by a conversation I had on what has happened to women in the recent past. Not just the fact that we were anticipating a more prominent showing by Women Leaders - now Clinton has faded, while Merkel and May are both under pressure, but the issues go deeper than that. So, a possible opportunity for a rant there - or should I say a series of thoughts. But then I got sent an interesting YouTube clip which deals with a subject I am hugely interested in - millenials. And this one was a clip - 20 minutes of it - that touched on a variety of topics that made me feel unsettled, troubled, somehow having failed, and yet in agreement ... and wondering what it all means. Oh boy! Where was I to start?

Decision time! Women first!!

Surely, any right thinking person in the modern era has to understand the enormous benefits that women bring to our society. It doesn't matter whether it is social or business; technology, finance, design or shipbuilding.

There are negative issues surrounding the beliefs and practices in some cultures over the role of women but, and I accept this is a controversial statement, if those people want to practice such beliefs then they should find an environment in which they can do so and not try to impose their culture on others. That, by the way, works both ways and if you find yourself in a country where greater attention is paid to modesty then don't think as a westerner, for example, that because what you do in your own country is acceptable it should be okay anywhere else.

I am a great believer in diversity in general, and also in getting the right person for the job - irrespective of gender, ethnicity or other any persuasion. I am also not generally in favour of having quota systems. But I am not at all convinced that we provide the necessary training or create the right opportunities for women to prepare them for roles.

There are various initiatives in a number of countries whereby corporations are either encouraged or required to have a certain number of women on their Boards. This works to a degree, but too often the ratio of male:female workers in senior positions is heavily skewed in favour of the males. This means that the pool of available women becomes limited and surely we should not be focusing just on Board positions but asking companies why they don't have more senior women in their corporate structure?

I am due to moderate a panel at a conference in a week or so and I was looking at the list of speakers and panellists. Frankly, I was shocked at the lack of women speakers, less than 10%, and asked the organisers for a comment. The response was that they had asked a number of high profile women speakers but most had declined. I'm afraid this goes back to an earlier comment. There are so few women in senior positions that the pool is small and they are therefore much in demand. But do you always need to have the very top names - and nothing else will do? There are many highly articulate, talented women out there who just need some exposure, and in my view we are letting them down.

I said earlier on that I was against quotas, and I am. I came from an era where business was done based on principles of good behaviour and trust. This subsequently became eroded to the extent that rules and regulations had to be imposed. Perhaps we do need to something similar to make companies wake up to the value of women.

In one or two of the Middle Eastern countries with which I am involved, there are quotas for localisation. These are set not just on an overall basis but on a layered basis - level by level.

Maybe it's worth a thought.

 

Oh No ... Not Him Again!!

"After Puckoon I swore I would never write another novel. This is it."

                                                                                Spike Milligan.

 

I have used this quote once before in a Blog, but it is so appropriate to the situation in which I now find myself I just had to use it again. When I stopped writing this Blog on 31 July 2015 I did so on the basis that I had insufficient time to continue writing regularly, and of course there were some critics out there who thought I was past it anyway. Perhaps the latter is true ... but I am of an age where I don't actually care! What does make me humbled and energised to give it another go are the continued notes I have received from a wide variety of people, some of whom I never knew read the Blog or were even aware of it, that have asked if I would reconsider, and write again.This has become especially true during the last few months, and I have found myself writing longish emails to a variety of people who have asked for a view on this or that.

And on that particular point I must reiterate something I have always maintained, which is I am not an "expert" on anything in particular. Sure I've been around, go to many places, and have an opportunity to meet many different people from all walks and at all levels of life. I guess it gives me a perspective that happily I share and in which some people are interested. 

When I stopped writing I was putting in a few more hours on work than perhaps I should have been - depending on who you listened to ... and I had suffered from a powerfully debilitating virus (all now long gone) that had left me a tad drained. And, frankly I was getting fed up with the world.

Fast forward to today and guess what, I am actually doing more than I was doing even back then. I am even more involved in business in the Middle East than I was and in more countries, although for the avoidance of doubt I am still very resident in Hong Kong. I also have increased my involvement with a couple of roles in Hong Kong. 

The upshot of all this is that after quite a number of weeks of debate about whether I can/should/want to do this all over again I have decided to give it a go and see what happens. There is, after all, much to concern us all - and it is not just a regional thing, it is global.Where does Asia go from here; remember that Asia, as if you would forget, is just not all about China. Asia is huge, young (in most places) and growing. Europe is not exactly dead yet, but seems to need some serious surgery and one has to question whether the "doctors" are up to it. North America - okay, the USA - is currently an unknown quantity and the world is holding its breath to see what happens next - while Russia and China seem to be making the most of uncertainty - and are a lot stronger than they used to be. Latin America, where I spent a few weeks in the latter part of this year (happily on vacation), has continuing political problems but some bright spots in some of its economies.

But as always it is a matter of perspective. I have always liked the quote from English author George Eliot (1819-1880), when she wrote "It is a narrow mind which cannot look at a subject from various points of view." It is one of the issues particularly I feel of a  generation younger than mine that seeks instant news, and takes what it receives as the final word even if it is a view from a few, without it being properly and widely aired. This, of course, is a generalisation but for my part I will continue to try and bring perspective to what I write, even if I do express a personal point of view.

This last year, 2016, in the Chinese Zodiac has been the year of the monkey. And what a mischievous little brute he has turned out to be. I hope that 2017 and the Year of the Rooster will be better.

Happy New Year.

The Dark At The End Of The Tunnel

I sometimes wonder what on earth I did as a full time employee - and for the wise guys out there, particularly those that used to work with me, that is a rhetorical question and not an open invitation to pass comment!

I try to keep up a regular Blog but struggle to do so. Reason? Happily I've too many other things going on in my life that interrupt the times when I could otherwise be sitting down and writing. There's certainly no shortage of material out there in my areas of so-called expertise. The Middle East, Asia, particularly Hong Kong and China, Finance - and a few odd observations.

But setting aside the temptation to comment on relatively small matters - such as bank headquarters relocations or whether China is beginning to look as capitalist as Hong Kong, there are in my mind a number of much broader issues out there today that are not being viewed in their entirety, and that cause me some concern. 

For example, the situations in the Middle East and North Africa which have the potential to create serious destabilisation, as if events in Europe, Russia and yes... the USA, were not enough already. Or not so creeping nationalism and an apparent revival of prejudices in what should be a world that has learnt to live in harmony and peace. Why can't we put up with and accept each other's idiosyncrasies, religions, creeds, colours, and sexual preferences ... whatever those differences may be.  The list could go on, as indeed could I - and mustn't.

Almost every conversation I have these days turns to every one of the topics I've mentioned above - and then some, such as ones I have had recently about education. When you think about it, many of the troubles we have today seem to be created by people who have not had the benefit of a decent education - and if they have, find it hard to get employment. The devil (in whatever language) finds work for idle hands (and empty minds). We must educate our children better and give them hope.

From the "helicopter" view of the world it seems many people view Middle Eastern affairs by looking at a number of individual issues in the region without recognising or understanding the complexities that underlie much of the trouble. We consider the impact on the EU if Greece leaves the Union. (Amazing to me how a country with a population the same size as half a dozen Chinese cities can hold Europe to ransom, and the armageddon scenario that seems to be favoured by many commentators as the outcome of a Grexit).  We look, in many cases from a distance, at the rise of nationalism around the world with a particularly hateful anti-Islamic brand in Germany, and what appears on the surface to be incidents of racism simmering in the USA, and ask if it ever really was defeated?  We despair at the plight of refugees trying to cross into Europe from Africa, while others besiege the French town of Calais in their attempts to get to Britain. We wonder separately about China's real territorial ambitions in the South China Sea, or what a North Korean drought might do to the Young Leader’s mental stability, and to the fate of the Rohingya. 

Just as an example let's look at the Middle East for a moment, which is where I still spend quite a lot of my time. ISIS - better known there as Da'esh (داعش) - keeps rolling along, apparently largely unchecked despite earlier predictions that it was small and could easily be defeated. Far from being driven back or even contained by any forces, be they Iraqi, other Arab States and Iran - they are actually gaining ground. And not content just with finding and slaughtering Christians they are now killing their own Sunnis. They occupy about 50% of Syria - and Iran has taken to providing arms and ammunition to Syria's Assad to defend himself against Da'esh - who now also control about 30% of Iraq. They are heading towards the Saudi border and if unchecked the Saudis are going to get very nervous.

Saudi has a war on its hands with Yemen that is costing them a lot financially. War is not cheap, and oil revenues are down (behind which there is a whole other story). If Da'esh continues to be successful the Saudis may end up also having to defend the other end of its Kingdom, on the Syrian border. Not to mention the disturbances created in Saudi’s Eastern Province by a vocal Shi’a population. Saudi Arabia has a new King, whose 29-year-old son is the Minister of Defence. Not, I suspect, a comfortable position for a young man with minimal experience.

But Da'esh is unlikely to be content just upsetting things in the Middle East. They are gaining in confidence it seems, so expect their "representatives" to start turning up one day unannounced in a city near you! They have attracted Europeans, Americans and Chinese to their ranks. And while we know that security forces everywhere are on the alert, just one or two successful returnees can do a lot of damage where you least expect it.

Da’esh appeals to more people than we would want to believe: people such as those homeless and hungry refugees I mentioned earlier and who have very little to lose. A fertile breeding ground for recruiting urban terrorists. Da'esh, according to the Muslims I speak to are not representative of Islam. Nevertheless Muslim communities will all be branded as terrorists, as many are already, even the vast majority that have done nothing wrong, and will eventually come up against a backlash by anti Islamic nationalist groups such as the German group Pegida who recently held their first rally in the United Kingdom, and who of course claim not to be anti-Muslim! Ultimately, I suspect that Pegida and Da'esh may escalate matters between the believers in each camp.

I'm not a pessimist by nature, and I am not yet downhearted by this but I feel we must keep a close eye on the bigger picture. It is not just the Middle East and Islam - there is much more going on out there.

Usually, from a negative situation one sees light at the end of the tunnel. Daylight, that is, unless the light happens to be a train coming the other way, but what I see at present is dark. 

 

 

 

 

The Dilemma of Cash Flow.

I see that the subject of delayed payments to SMEs by “big business” has come round again as it does every so often. In the recent election campaign in the UK the now ex-Labour leader was vocal in his “outrage” at the damage caused to SMEs by their larger customers, who seemed to take a perverse delight in paying their dues at the very last minute. This outrage was followed in a Hong Kong newspaper article the other day with a similar level of condemnation. And quite right too.

The trouble is this is not a new problem. I remember writing letters, that were actually published for once, to the press in the 1980s on the very same subject. SMEs have lived with a cash flow dilemma for years – but that doesn’t mean to say it’s right.

One suggestion to combat the practice, about which I am less than convinced, is to name and shame the offenders. I personally don’t think it’s an answer because those slow-payers will merely say that they are managing their business effectively to the benefit of their shareholders and, of course, their own cash flow. This is less of a valid excuse in the case of the public services, as seems to be the thrust of the Hong Kong article, where the delays are more of a bureaucratic nature than cash management.

So, if major companies  - or indeed the public services - can’t behave like responsible grown ups and pay their small suppliers on time, there may be some help at hand. And it’s not necessarily coming from traditional quarters.

The banks have tried to help – no, honestly(!) – but the statistics on lending to SMEs don’t make pretty reading. I am not sure how many start-ups fail in the first year these days but it used to be a pretty horrifying number. Over 80% I recall, but for the purposes of this note I am not talking start-up SMEs but established small businesses: those with a proven track record, but who still face the ignominy of chasing cash flow so they can operate efficiently themselves and do simple things like paying their wages and utility bills on time.

Now remember, I am a conservative and extremely boring ex-banker not given to wild enthusiastic rushes into new and untried forms of lending, but some of what is on offer out there now is going to make a difference, and in one form at least also reflects a form of financing that seemed to die a death a good many years ago.

I am of course referring to crowd-funding principles, P2P lending, invoice discounting – didn’t we used to call it factoring – and indeed the growth of entities known as Challenger Banks in the UK although I think these latter new banking interests look a little too traditional in nature. They may be more nimble because they are small, and they may use technology effectively, but the mind-set may be too old fashioned, a bit like mine!

You may already have heard of Funding Circle in the UK that has been going for 5 years. Both Prosper and Lending Club in the USA have been going successfully for somewhat longer, over 10 years, and this is not a trend that is likely to abate.

The Middle East now has a number of new-type lenders. For example, I suspect you probably won’t have heard of “Beehive”. Their main focus at present is in the Middle East, but they are a peer-to-peer lender, an invoice discounter, an Islamic finance lender. An online marketplace directly connecting potential investors to creditworthy businesses.

While banks today probably still have upwards of 80% of this type of SME lending on their books, I think there is a definite trend away from banks as these alternatives become more sophisticated and better at marketing. And actually some banks, to be fair to them, and other alternative disruptors in the market such as Amazon, Google and Alipay for example are recognising this new source of funding, and in some cases even joining forces

But does it work? Given a number of caveats, it could. 

 

In the first place, and somewhat unusually, it may provide a lower cost of funding for the SME. Unusual because banks price for risk. SME risk is traditionally higher than large corporate risk (although you wouldn’t think so sometimes), so they have to pay more even though – perversely – they can’t afford more but have so far had no other choice. P2P lending creates an opportunity for the SME to borrow more cheaply because the lenders are likely to demand less and competitively they won’t get into the better deals if they demand high returns.

For the investors they can, if they wish, spread relatively small amounts of money across a broad range of businesses and on average obtain  a better rate of return than they might otherwise earn from non-existent interest in bank deposits or investing in high priced and volatile equities.

But … isn’t there always one, this is not an investment vehicle for the faint-hearted and if you are thinking of investing your life savings in these schemes – DON’T!! This will be a market more for a category of people who understand the pitfalls associated with what is largely unregulated lending, and investing through well-established and reliable market participants who you can trust to have done their due diligence properly, and who will on your behalf keep an eye on the borrowing SMEs, paying your returns on time.

Will there be failures? You bet, but there will be successes too. The principle of “caveat emptor”  or – “let the buyer beware” is clearly indicated here and sadly there will undoubtedly be some cheats and tricksters.

But if both SME's and their customers are creditworthy, there is a business opportunity in managing the cash-flow problems of slow payment.  If old-fashioned banks don't seize it, new players with new business models will do so.  Given the rapid rise of new players like Alipay and Beehive, that shift seems to have started!

The Year Ahead – Mixed Feelings – Part II

Whether we like it or not, and there are many in the “dislike” camp, business and economic issues are going to be particularly significant in 2015, and of course politics will play a part in this too. A major election in the UK in May, where the outcome is far from certain unless of course the Labour Party manage to bring back David Milliband. There are issues over whether Greece will stay or leave the Euro, and whether it matters more politically or economically. How are both the US and the German economies really doing, and let’s not forget China – again, politically and economically?

But for me, the questions that I have uppermost in my mind that have the potential to disrupt our day to day lives in 2015 relate to the rise of both terrorism and nationalism.

Now, living in Hong Kong you might be forgiven for thinking that not much of this affects us here, but it would also be wrong to be complacent – especially if you travel to just about anywhere else.

You don’t hear quite so much these days about ISIS, ISIL, Islamic State, or Da’esh, the various names still in use for the aggressors in the war in Iraq, although the latter name is becoming more commonly used. Should this lack of news indicate that the war against these people is being won? Certainly there have been positive gains by the opposing forces, but this is likely to end up eventually as yet another guerrilla war with pockets of resistance popping up now and again, and probably spilling across borders. And let’s be honest, the Taliban are not in favour of Da’esh either so expect a battle between both organisations.

Also, although it is hard to separate them at times – we need to keep in mind that there is a far broader, saner, more rational face of Islam than that portrayed in the media. However, issues like  the sentencing of a human being to 1,000 lashes by the Saudi authorities do absolutely nothing to promote impressions of sanity.

Recent events, particularly in Europe (Paris, Belgium, for example) – are not likely to soothe fears. In addition the rise of nationalism in many countries, for example, in the UK where the UKIP party is gaining ground, just prior to the elections: in France where the National Front is making significant gains, in Germany where Pegida – an anti-Islamic Group has been attracting much attention but also, thankfully where rival demonstrations have also been held.  But “nationalism” is not confined to Europe. A daily scan of the media – whilst it's not always accurate or objective – does report of such tendencies elsewhere.

The bigger immediate threat surely, although once again I have heard it said by a couple of commentators that it is not really a threat at all even after the Paris “massacre”, is the growth of  in-country isolated cells attacking institutions or people they don’t like, “inspired” by the Da’esh. And what happens when some of these terrorists return to their home countries - will our home security forces be alert to their return? I have to believe that in the majority of cases they will, but some will inevitably slip through the net and disappear for a while. And these “fighters” – now murderers in many cases – may well continue their fight on home soil.Don't forget that Da’esh has attracted people from the West and the East. From Britain and America, from Europe but also from Muslim populations in South East Asia, and from North West China.

We should be, must be, alert to the potential for serious mischief in 2015.

What however seems to be a common theme though is generally – not always – the people who are attracted to these terrorist organisations are often disaffected, under or un-employed, lacking education and with few alternatives in life.

Our world today is no longer confined by nice neat ethnic, religious or linguistic boundaries. We live in a melting pot of cultures, and many countries try to embrace new arrivals to their shores. But by the same token, those new arrivals must also aim to integrate into their surroundings and not believe that their new country should adapt everything to suit them. It’s a two way street – not one-way.

When I started my international banking career it was always impressed on us, not as I recall that we actually needed impressing, that in every new country we were sent to it was up to us to remember we were a guest in that country, and we were expected to learn and understand the culture in which we were working. It was a mark of respect. Today, I fear that respect has gone. Integration has gone. And, as a final point, education is playing a part in that disintegration.

I feel sorry for many teachers in many schools. They are often underpaid, underappreciated, have become "parents" in absentia by default, have class sizes that are too big and are almost dragged into a situation where they move at the pace of the underachievers in the classroom. As a result in many inner cities and some of the poorer developing countries, despite the best efforts of the teachers, we have undereducated children with minimal job prospects living in un-integrated communities. They are an easy target for recruiters to violence.

If this is allowed to continue, we will see more wanton acts of destruction and senseless killings in 2015, and I wonder where the leaders are going to come from that have the ability and the determination to put this right.

If we keep our wits about us, take our surroundings seriously, elect politicians who will serve their communities better, improve education, encourage integration, hold businesses accountable to pay fair wages and salaries and create job opportunities, maybe we will have a chance of success.

The rise of nationalism is not the solution, but I can understand why it is attractive to many. Neither are terrorist acts acceptable in any shape or form, but for heaven’s sake let’s try and re-discover respect and dignity towards our fellow human beings – whatever they believe in. Murder is not an option.

The Year Ahead – Mixed Feelings – Part 1

Oh my goodness, where do we start?

 I have to say I am not known for the consistency of my Blog writing and my 2015 New Year’s resolution, to improve that consistency, like resolutions I suspect of many other people is already out of the window as this Blog is at least two weeks later than I had intended.

 However, I was spurred into action by a comment I received from one legislator the other day who was trying to link the recent lack of activity to a suggestion I might have been ‘sat upon’ by some quarters regarding my series of Blogs on Occupy Central. To which I can only say “far from it”! As Howard Winn writing under Laisee in the SCMP pointed out last October I have always been independent of thought and expression, and my views on that movement struck a positive chord with considerably more people than it seemed to irritate a few others. That is what freedom of expression is all about – an agreement to disagree, without getting either violent or stupid about it. And if you can’t stand negative comments, don’t comment in the first place.

Which brings us to this year - and where do these years go anyway?

It actually doesn’t matter where you look, but we haven’t got off to the most wonderful of starts this year, with my conclusion being that this is likely to be a difficult and volatile year. And in part because each year our world becomes more complex and more complicated.

[In case you are wondering about the difference between complex and complicated, let me describe my understanding of the two.  Something that is complex may have many parts to it that require putting together properly, but it might not of itself be difficult. Complicated, however suggests to me a considerably higher level of difficulty that requires much work to solve it.]

There is much in my mind that I could write about, accepting that my views are no more or less valid than those of anyone else, but to keep matters manageable I intend therefore to try and keep this to two Blogs .

Oil prices this year are in sharp focus, and I heard a commentator the other day talking about the current oil price and saying that this was absolutely nothing to do with politics and was solely about a greater supply, particularly out of the US and partly falling demand. In other words nothing unusual and the market was behaving, as it should.

Well maybe sometimes I don’t understand as much as I think I do, but consider this:

The Russians have been major suppliers of arms to the Syrians who sit on the Saudi Arabian border, and whose troubles could one day just spill over into the Kingdom. The oil price slump has battered the rouble, which hurts Russia. Also I can’t see the US being terribly unhappy with the pressure being put on Russia as a result of the Saudi position.

Next, and as a result of US policy and the desire of the rest of the world to ensure that weapons of mass destruction in the hands of Iran should be moderated, the US has become rather close to Iran. No progress so far but there is a lot of wooing. Saudi Arabia in turn cannot be desperately happy with the US sort of “adopting” Iran as a favoured Middle Eastern nation in replacement of the Kingdom, but in truth they too would also feel more comfortable if Iran was less nuclear. So, oil price pressure on Iran might make them more amenable to US talks.

The idea of the US becoming self-sufficient in oil and gas through the fracking processes used, will of course have an impact on oil prices – reducing them. However, fracking is a more expensive extraction option in terms of ongoing capital expenditure, which with a low oil price if it is sustained and supported by OPEC means those producers in the USA and of course elsewhere are going to start hurting soon on economic grounds. Draw your own conclusions.

So is the current cost of oil purely based on economic supply and demand? I don’t really think so.

Oil prices, the recent situation with copper prices and the commodities market in general, the currency markets currently volatile especially after the recent Swiss announcements, and problems once more for the Euro. The potential property bubbles being created by wealthy Russians and Chinese presumably beginning to falter as wealth becomes eroded in one country and more probing questions are being asked about sources of funds in another all suggest that skittish markets are going to be the norm for a while. And watch this space if interest rates start to rise at all. There are some businesses, many small, and of course individuals particularly in the housing market, that will not welcome such a move.

So, a word of warning to those with short term memories – if you don’t understand the markets and can’t afford the volatility, stay out of them!

For all of the negatives though, it has to be said that some businesses will seek relevant opportunities and be successful even in these markets. In particular look for companies who are hiring some older people who have experience of managing in markets in a down turn. Some of our younger colleagues haven’t had that experience yet.

But enough for now. I have a few other things that are troubling me. For Part II I want to consider the rise of urban terrorism, mentioned in my columns before and to touch on associated subjects like education, integration of communities, leadership and politics – although I fear that political leadership is now an oxymoron.

Hopes For The Future

I keep being asked what I think about the future of Hong Kong. What surprises me most about this is that it’s a question not being asked by foreigners but by local residents of Hong Kong origin whose knowledge of what goes on at the grass roots level is far superior to mine.

I usually steer clear from making predictions on the basis that my crystal ball is no less shatterproof than that of anyone else. So, why me? Well, as I follow through the conversations it seems that in the first place no one else is saying anything, so I will have to do. Secondly, I am independent – well most people think so anyway - and I’ve been around a long time living in and travelling to different parts of the world. Perhaps therefore I may have a broader view than some. Also, being willing to express thoughts and test theories, I usually have a view – as long as I have some knowledge of the subject, and accepting that my view is not the only one.

I don’t know how many blogs I’ve written about the potential future of Hong Kong since I started writing them about 7 years ago. I have urged people not to lose faith in the city, no matter what apparent obstacles have been put in the way. The same can be said of speeches I have made about Hong Kong all around the world both before I retired from my full time employment, and then in the almost 10 years since.

Let’s be clear. I write from a particularly lucky and privileged position. If I decide that I don’t want to stay here (or worse, if people here decide they don’t want me to stay), I do have options. But today, there are none that I have seriously considered. I guess that provides you with some sort of insight into what I think about Hong Kong and its future. Certainly at this moment in time.

Back in June 2007, I was saying that Hong Kong’s previously well-publicised and practised “can do” attitude was in danger of becoming a “can’t do” attitude. Since then, regrettably, not much has changed, and by April 2013 I had amended “can’t do” to “won’t do”! But nevertheless the supporters of Hong Kong keep their faith, in the hope that action will be taken for the overall benefit of this city and its people.

All of which leads me back to now: the present.

Any debate about the future, needs also to deal with the present. If, as in parts of the Middle East today with bombs going off all around you, or you are being overrun by terrorists in the name of Islam. If your homes are being destroyed and your people are being murdered on a daily basis, nothing is going to move forward unless a solution is found to the present.

Hong Kong, happily, is not in such a desperate situation as are so many other places in the world. But it has its own current issues to deal with, and some form of resolution needs to be found so that the community can move on and focus on providing a solid base for growth and attractiveness. Therefore it is difficult to even make a reasonable guess at Hong Kong’s future in the present state of affairs.

A recent news article and video report by the BBC, reporting on the Oslo Freedom Forum (go to the final picture for the video - It reads "Members of Pussy Riot are attending the Oslo Freedom Forum. Watch Laura's report") provides an interesting insight into how much pre-planning went into Occupy Central, and the part of particular interest to Hong Kong starts after about the first minute. It also seems that some of the demonstrators are rather well trained. However, while the instructions about what to do in the beginning would seem clear and are being followed, there is little advice available on “what next?” And this is where we are at the present.

It seems to me inconceivable that any discussion on democracy can take place on a “one to one” basis. By this I mean that if there are to be any talks on the subject then it cannot involve solely the student body and Government. It involves all sectors of the public – which can of course include the students.

On the other hand, if the students have concerns about the future job market when they leave their studies, or the huge and future cost of housing in a place like Hong Kong, or other social service provisions in the future – that is a much more relevant starting dialogue where both sides can engage.

Think about it rationally. When a baby starts to move it doesn’t immediately run, or jump or even walk. It crawls to begin with, then it takes small steps and as it gains more understanding of its capabilities and gathers confidence, it can do more.

I honestly have no doubt about the students abilities, nor about their sincerity, but you know – the amount of goodwill they would generate immediately by saying “we’ve made our point forcefully, but it’s now time to move on” would be really significant.

Students all over the world are often idealistic, focusing their efforts on political reform rather than acknowledging the importance of commercial enterprise, but I heard a story very recently where a young protester who was visiting home discovered his Father was unexpectedly also at home. When asked why, the Father explained that his business had been so severely affected by the demonstrations that he had no customers. The young man, I understand, has not returned to the protest lines – but I suspect he is also unlikely to speak out for fear of abuse. Oh dear!

Does Hong Kong have a future? Of course it does – but everyone needs a greater level of mutual understanding. If we don’t get it, then any dialogue between those students who are heading for the job market in the near future or who want to get into the housing market are going to find a discussion about the future not just a “nice to have” but essential.

In my walks down through the students in Gloucester Road there is one sign I always see which reads “Hong Kong Is My Home”. Well it’s mine too!!

Nice Legs: Shame About The Face!

I asked them what they thought of her they fell about the place
And they said nice legs shame about her face
                                                                                   Lyrics: "The Monks"

In a reprise of previous articles I have written about the "headline effect" on news stories, I am only too familiar with the impact that a random and potentially misleading headline can make, hence the heading to start this particular Blog. Therefore if you came across this site hoping to read something sllghtly risqué or naughty, or perhaps even where The Monks were playing next, (actually they disbanded in 1982) move on!!

One of the rather impolite, and now probably considered politically incorrect, sayings when I was a teenager would be to refer to a member of the opposite sex who possessed a beautifully sculpted body but who had a face much better suited to radio than television, as someone having "nice legs, but shame about etc ...".

The phrase rather bizarrely came to mind towards the end of a recent three week long business trip as I have traveled literally more than once around the world, to America, Europe, the Middle East back to Europe, the Middle East again and now home this weekend, during which the subject of Hong Kong came up from time to time. Why? People had seen a few pictures and read a few stories and wanted an "unmedia" related overview of events. 

Those of you who know me will of course understand that amongst my many failings is a desire to investigate both sides of a situation or story. By way of illustration, when I left the Mongkok District of Hong Kong where I worked over 30 years ago, my colleagues gave me a painting of some scales of justice that they had titled "The Judge". Today it sits in my study at home. It must be something to do with the Western birth sign under which I was born, Libra. The common traits of a Libran are, apparently as they suit my purpose "... a strong sense of justice and fair play. They will never resort to cunning methods to get what they want. They are well-known for their diplomatic skills and have the ability to listen to differing points of view with a great deal of patience."

I am very comfortable, therefore, in giving an overview of what I see as the principal points in a situation, even if my concluding views would not suit everyone. They can't. You cannot please all of the people all of the time - and if you do, then something is wrong somewhere.

What was interesting to me, with all the questions and the comments? The impression created overseas by the current pictures and stories that were all negative towards Hong Kong. But the follow-on questions I received were all about the long-term future of Hong Kong, and why Hong Kong was apparently giving a boost to cities like Shanghai and Singapore with these distractions.

I have, even before I returned but particularly now since returning, been approached by the media asking if I will give them my views on the long term damage being done to Hong Kong by the current protests. And those views will have to wait.

Even more interesting to me though on my overseas conversations was how short they were on the subject of Hong Kong.

"Ah, okay" they would say after a few minutes, "But what is going to be the impact of the Ebola virus on the world if it spreads out of control, and is ISIS really a major threat to cities as fighters return to their home countries willing to carry out wanton acts of violence, and what is really happening in the Ukraine, and the Japanese economy, and Europe". The point is, while in Hong Kong people think that "Occupy Central" is the most important thing in our lives - to the world outside it is kind of interesting, but not that important. It reminded me of the quote attributed to Lyndon Johnson the US President who once said ".....it's a lot like pi**ing down your leg. It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else". I was also talking to someone a couple of days from the New Territories (in Hong Kong), where the view of the protests over in Central seems to be one of "Oh, really. Are they still there?" Complete disinterest.

Actually, I do want to come back to the long-term future for a second.

I have seen a variety of comments in the media (where else), about the damage that is being caused to people by this continuation of the protests, and alternative comments about the fact that business is generally unfazed by the situation. The truth undoubtedly lies somewhere between the two. A retailer who operates in Causeway Bay but not in Central will see the situation quite differently. But that is now. What of the future?

As I have said consistently on these pages, no one has ever really made a profit by betting against Hong Kong. But that was then. The long term future, frankly, is Hong Kong's to lose. In other words if we continue to innovate, keep pace with change, retain a fair and lawful infrastructure where legal judgments are respected and businesses are allowed to generate profits to keep people employed and to prosper, Hong Kong will survive.

I know this is a generalisation but as I have had to point out before - this is a Blog, not a book. A full discussion would take too many words. But in summary of today's situation Hong Kong still has nice legs - it's just a shame about the face! 

Fate - Out Of Our Hands

How do you deal with life? An odd question, perhaps, but every day when one goes to school, reads the newspapers, watches television, talk to people, you are dealt a huge amount of information to filter. Information that is subject to individual interpretation, the “spin” of the teacher, the writer, the presenter or the author.

Read any newspaper today and in every daily edition you will read the stories that start  “…in a survey of 127 people …”, or “scientists have now concluded that …”, and goes on to say that such and such a product is now good/bad/healthy/unhealthy for you. Or common “wisdom” suggests you shouldn’t fly a particular airline because it is jinxed. Malaysian Airlines for example where an aircraft has gone missing and when the same airline has had one of its planes shot out of the sky through absolutely no fault of the airline - and don’t say they were “wrong to take a short cut” – there was a procession of luckier aircraft that went through that very same air space in the hours before Malaysian Airlines.

And the food surveys, “best” diets, wine studies, chocolate reviews, but also parenting, fashion, political and economic forecasts – whew! The list goes on and on and on. Surely this information, or perhaps misinformation or half –truth overload will get you in the end. Red wine and chocolate were supposed to be positively good for your health. Recent studies – at least by headline – now suggest they are no longer so wonderful. But the evidence in the reports actually seems to say that while they are not bad, they are actually no better than anything else comparable. Oh, and today we learn that sitting is more harmful to your health than smoking. Really? I am now standing up to write this.

Of course the business world has found the answer to all of this in “Big Data”. Always assuming of course that you have the right person or team to ask precisely the right interrogatory questions of that data!

But the information dispensed doesn’t stop with things like food, health and safety!!  It also stretches to broader political issues. For example the “black warning”  (just recently reduced to “amber”) imposed by the Hong Kong Government on travel to the Philippines because of the shooting of a tourist bus carrying Hong Kong tourists in 2010. A tragedy, for sure, but if the tourists had been from another country, would the shooting have also prompted a travel ban to the Philippines by the Hong Kong Government? I think not.  And if such bans are purely on grounds of safety and security, the same HK Government should perhaps issue at least an amber warning in its own country for the way mini-bus drivers operate their vehicles!

The trouble is that this information overload is often more confusing than helpful. These interpretations by third parties can shape peoples minds into narrow channels to the extent that they cannot see a broader picture. It stifles rational and independent creative thought, and it makes people stressed and depressed. It also prevents some people moving on for fear of taking missteps, or being criticised.

A recent practical example is a question I had from someone who asked if they should still go on a trip at the end of this month for a break because they were going to a country that has a minority Muslim population. With all the problems in the Middle East (even though the country to be visited was nowhere near that region), could those problems spill over into other countries?

The purely “to be safe” answer of course has to be yes, because you can never ever guarantee that what happens in one country will not happen elsewhere. Not every single member of the global community is a decent, law-abiding, respecter of human rights and human dignity. But that should not mean that you wake up every morning afraid to go out of your front door. Or stop eating because some study of a few people has shown a particular food to be carcinogenic in 80% of mice but only if they eat 15 times their bodyweight.

By the way, my advice to the travel question? Go! Statistically you are more likely to be hit by a wayward bus in Hong Kong than being a victim of a terrorist attack.

We are being smothered by studies and statistics. We are perpetuating the dissemination of all sorts of information by means of (anti) social media, often without any consideration of accuracy. We are adopting an attitude of  “I heard it here – so it must be right”.

Well of course as an individual you are entitled to do and think whatever you want (subject to the laws of the country in which you live of course!!), but there seems to be a need for more individual thought, an individual assessment of situations and not just a blind acceptance of information because someone else has done the work. Moderation in all things is an adage that has generally stood the test of time, together with common sense and perspective.

Everyone is different. Me? I guess I am a fatalist at heart. On balance, I do enjoy life. I have ups and downs like everyone else. But I also like to consider individual situations on the merits as assessed by me in the light of the information I can obtain. It means keeping an open mind, and it does not mean that I will always get it right – indeed, far from it, but I am not going to stop doing something unless there is a good reason – and if I’ve got it wrong then it was meant to be, but at least I will have lived my own life and not one prescribed by a myriad of conflicting studies and reports.