Eldon-Online

Protest - Debate vs Destruction

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly for someone who retired from full time employment almost 15 years ago, and who has been described as being “in his winter”, I still receive lots of approaches from journalists for a comment, even from some who try to disguise themselves as being journalists, particularly when there is something controversial going on in Hong Kong. Recent events have proved no different, and neither has my stance.

I have always tended, even when working full time, to leave political commentary to those better qualified than I am. Matters affecting business and the future are however different, and that is where I find myself at present. My own global associations - i.e. where I have lived, can be split pretty much into three distinct geographical areas - 20% Middle East, 30% UK and 50% Asia (mostly Hong Kong).

I am therefore saddened by what is happening in Hong Kong today where I have spent most of my life and I worry about the future of the protesters - particularly the young. Job security for them must be a genuine risk for the future if all goes badly, and the chance that they may be worse off in future as a result of their protests than they might otherwise have been, does not sit happily in my thoughts. As I suggested in a previous Blog, about hindsight, and perhaps what the protesters have overlooked is that if China had assumed full control of Hong Kong on 1 July 1997 life could already be very much different from today.

The genesis of the current protest movement was discomfort over the introduction of an unpopular extradition bill. The manner of its introduction and the lack of ensuing debate could have been avoided perhaps, and I can understand the level of discomfort that ensued. But that bill has largely been dismissed; not to the satisfaction of the protesters for sure, but that initial issue has been overtaken by the protesters calling for full democracy in Hong Kong (of which more later), or even independence from China as is being called for by some. This is something that was not on the table before July 1997, it was not on the table after, and was never likely to be on the table in future. But consider this. Look at the significant developments that have been, and still are, taking place in the Greater Bay Area. An area of intense and continuing economic growth. Then look at some of the major Chinese companies that are profitable and increasingly global. I don’t need to name them as they are largely household names; not the sort of thing though you would have expected from an apparently repressive, business-unfriendly state. But then, what do I know? I only have my experience to go on.

Just as an aside, I have seen a comment today that is being widely reported in the media apparently from a “victim of the police brutality". The comment from the victim said the police should “concentrate on upholding the rule of law”. Now that is a sentiment with which I fully agree - but what are they supposed to do when people are breaking the law and damaging property? Does upholding the rule of law mean they have to stand still and be pelted with bricks and everything else that comes to hand? Please!

Moving on there seem to be those in Hong Kong who see Britain as the defender of Hong Kong’s rights to democracy. A democracy, lest they forget, that did not find its way to Hong Kong under British control although in all honesty I have no idea whether they tried to introduce it, but that’s another story. However, now take a look at Britain today where the Prime Minister (elected by 0.3% of the population), has decided to shut down Parliament for three weeks in advance of Britain leaving the European Union. He says, of course, that this is not designed to thwart attempts to debate the rights and wrongs of leaving the Union without a deal, as seems likely, but if that is not the purpose then I am having difficulty in finding people who can explain why he is interfering with the democratic right to debate. If that is the sort of democracy craved in Hong Kong, then good luck.

I am in favour of protests that make a valid point and that have been properly and seriously thought through. In this regard, China too has been a supporter of protests in the past. In the 1960s and 1970s when I was signing documentation for the import of goods from China which called for the provision of insurance covering such eventualities I would receive notes from China saying they could not provide such insurance because they believed in "strikes, riots and civil commotion". 

The world is already in a difficult place - there are major protests in the United Kingdom because of the "coup" attempt to close the democratic process of parliament and then the attempts taking place in mid-September to close Heathrow airport by climate change activists. But it does not have to be that way - and especially in Hong Kong. It needs some rational thinking, some cool heads, dialogue and a realisation of what is realistically possible and what is not; also, a real understanding of the actual concerns of the protesters by the administration.

Failure to debate is likely to lead to a destruction of the future.

The Undeniable Power of Hindsight

Of all the "sciences", hindsight is clearly the most accurate. "I wish I had thought of that before ...” or “I forgot to take that into account ... “ is the cry of too many when something has gone wrong. Or maybe a comment like “... with the benefit of hindsight”; the inquest into the London Bridge murders in England and the comment by the police afterwards being a recent and particular case in point.

I had a senior colleague once who used to say - "if you look backwards, you will go backwards". I didn't agree then and I don't now because it is by looking backwards you should be able to understand that there are many things in life that get repeated, and you use that knowledge to go forward better informed. That, I submit, is different from being able to change the past - which of course you can’t, and only moving forward! The Global financial crisis in 2008 was a particular example of the former. I was later asked to speak at conferences on the GFC, and I used to point to the causes that contributed to that event by quoting from a book called The Country Banker, published some 120 years earlier, that highlighted the similarity between the cause and effect that were around at the time the book was written and the GFC.

The rationale for following a potentially hazardous course of action, when referring to a similar past event is usually “but it's different this time". It rarely is.

Hindsight; something that perhaps David Cameron wished he had when he started the whole mess that has turned out to be Brexit, and frankly it doesn’t matter which side you are on - the whole thing has turned out to be a total dog’s breakfast. Hindsight - perhaps useful when looking at the causes of two world wars in the last century, and something President Trump might like to look carefully at when poking his fingers in the eyes of Iran. As a side note, I have a friend who is writing a book about certain events of the Second World War and who as a result has been interviewing a number of the remaining people involved. She tells me that an overwhelming majority of them are very nervous about the current state of affairs in the world. These are people who have clear hindsight - and do not like what they see today. It would be as well to remember the Chinese proverb that say that one dog barks when it sees something ... a hundred dogs bark because they heard the first dog!!

And so to Hong Kong; I have no particular insights but I wonder how the architects feel now - with hindsight - of the agreement created prior to 1997 covering the return of Hong Kong to China under the 99 year lease that the United Kingdom held over Hong Kong island and a bit of Kowloon. As with any lease the leaseholder would have had every right to demand the return of the property at the end of the lease. End of story - no arguments. But an agreement was struck that gave Hong Kong a further 50 years of basic autonomy - at the end of which period China will, like it or not, recover complete control over Hong Kong.

The recent demonstrations in Hong Kong over the potential introduction of an unpopular piece of legislation is actually understandable - badly reported in the media (no surprise there then!), the demonstrators have a point to make, although trying to tie this in to - for want of a better word - an additional plea for democracy, is likely going to fall on deaf ears. And frankly if democratic Western Democracies (many of whom do not seem to be in great shape anyway) want to make a case for Hong Kong to become a full democracy should they not have thought of that 40 or 50 years ago. The UK in particular, who had the ability to do something at the time. And what would be the situation in Hong Kong today if in fact China had assumed full control in 1997? 

The world is not perfect; never has been and never will be, and you only have to look at places elsewhere in the world to realise actually how well off you are. That said, when it’s on your own doorstep it becomes very personal and threatening. So it needs sensible voices on both sides to debate these issues - and to rationalise what is possible and what is not.

I know, easy for me to say this. The chances of me reaching the 50th Anniversary of the Handover are minute, and even if I do I will be lucky to be compos mentis, but please don’t let it become a matter of  “... you know, in hindsight!”

Life is Like .... a Toilet Roll!

I must have led a sheltered life - I had not heard that one before but someone sent me a message a couple of days back with that notation. Life is like a roll of toilet paper - it says - the closer you get to the end the faster it goes.

Ooh - how true, albeit somewhat sobering. Mind you - the trick surely is to keep another roll close by so that you can switch rolls and start again. Bit like retirement?

Someone said to me yesterday that her Father was about to retire and was not looking forward to it especially as he's still kind of young in this longer life-expectancy world, but the company policy said it was time for him to go. And let's be honest there are people for whom retirement cannot come soon enough - and then there's people like me. My argument is that currently I know things that I have learnt over many years and which still have their uses - and I am happy to share the experiences while others still want them. And in the case of the gentleman to whom I referred above, and knowing what he has been doing, there is certainly life after retirement for him. New role or new roll!

The alternative to working, unless you are fortunate enough to have enough hobbies and other entertainment to keep you happy, is maybe to sit in front of the television and scare yourself silly by watching the news.

In the (dis)United Kingdom, the best President that America has ever had - according to him - is imminently arriving to dispense more advice on how to run the country and leave the European Union. Apart from opining that the British public love him - some questions there I fear - he has even taken to anointing the people who he thinks would be the best negotiators and leaders. Although the people concerned, by and large, do not seem to welcome the interference support. Anything, it seems, to divert attention from himself, his tax returns, his tariff war (becoming a serious issue for many within the USA) and what is likely to be a higher cost of living when either the goods carry the cost of the tariffs or they don't get shipped at all.

And he is stepping into the Brexit debate - rather grandly referred to by certain people who wish to leave Europe as it being "the will of the people", which of course it was - or least just a little over half of the people who voted. Hardly a decisive majority. The other 48% who voted against leaving now have no voice it seems - unless you support the Liberal Democrats.

When you look around the world today you think of the populist trends and the rise of both right and left wing extremes, and then note the honest endeavours of many who suffer as a result of the widening (as commented many times before here) gap between the rich and the poor. Particularly when there are some among the rich who think they should not pay taxes!  No wonder the richer countries want to keep out the impoverished, the disadvantaged, the people saddled with corrupt leaders, in countries with few natural resources and therefore neither food nor water in sufficient supplies.

A world that lacks compassion generally, and no common purpose.

This might not please my Australian friends much, but we were talking the other day about what New Zealand has been doing that is positive under its new leadership. The reaction, for example, to the shooting in the mosque and the action taken over gun laws immediately. Truly genuine compassion. Contrast that with the latest shooting outrage in the USA - 12 people shot which apparently is the 150th incident this year so far where more than 4 people have been shot in one go! Carry on like this and there'll be no-one left in some places.

Nothing detrimental about Australia, of course, because I'm still looking around for places to live. Hong Kong for me is still home, but my other home - Britain - has a significantly declining appeal as a place to go, and seeing as even Mr. Trump seems to be giving advice to Britain now I'm not sure who is running the country!!

Ah well, with all that is going on it is hardly a surprise that the toilet paper comes in handy, and given the number of sheets one needs these days it should not be a surprise when you look and see that the roll is running down rather quicker that one might like! Time to panic buy?

Protectionism and Poverty - The World Today

I am privileged, and according to some of my friends (?) and colleagues, I am rich. That, I submit, from them is a little like the pot calling the kettle black - an old expression that I hope does not cause offence to pots or kettles and that I have not now inadvertently started a “#movement”.

In my defence - not that I am proposing to mount one, I am not as “rich” as many other people I know - at least not in monetary terms, but then neither are the people who call me “rich” - in some cases in rather derogatory terms - actually poor, as they most certainly would themselves qualify for a place in the top 1% of the world’s wealthiest people. [To be in the top 1% worldwide for income, you need to be in receipt annually of around GBP25,000 pension or salary - and in net worth terms - GBP600k. Remember that is to be in the top 1% globally!!]. “Rich” for me though is measured not just in terms of fiscal and asset wealth, but also in terms of freedoms, happiness and health. So yes, I am rich and so I also have to say while we are about it that I am also lucky.

Where I am right now, the people are not financially rich! I am on the Mekong River in Laos. It’s really interesting. The part I have been going down bisects Laos and Thailand and the contrast between the two sides has been stark. The more prosperous Thai side with its brick built villages shows up the poorer Lao side with its run down wooden huts and dirt tracks. Oh yes, say the tourists, the Lao side is just so much more picturesque and unspoilt. I was having a chat with Lee, our Lao guide, and asked him about the border between the two - with the river providing a natural boundary. He told me it was very easy to cross between the two sides to visit but only for a day. No visa needed, but if you stayed any longer you would be sent back to the other side, and anyway you couldn’t work without a permit. So, I asked him more about his feelings when he saw the prosperity on the Thai side and didn’t it make him wish Laos was more like Thailand? His response was simple. Yes, of course it would be better, but then he also said why couldn’t they be the same country? They have many ethnic similarities - even the Thai Baht is accepted in Laos, but of course the Thais don’t want to share what is theirs. And there you have it, the problem in a microcosm. Why should they share something they have built up? What is wrong with possession even if your neighbour is poor.

The world was once made up of small communities, happy in their own environments but then those communities started to spread out to meet their needs for food or grazing then ultimately other raw materials gathering influence on the way by bullying or by diplomacy. But it became a matter of ownership and possession, and over the ensuing centuries it has ever been thus. The explorers, the adventurers ... Marco Polo, Vasco de Gama, Zheng He, Captain Cook. The colonisers and acquirers of land and property - the Vikings, the Romans, Genghis Khan, the Portuguese and Spaniards, the Dutch in Asia and the British everywhere. Did they develop the countries they invaded or colonised ... well some will argue yes ... or did they just take what they wanted. And then did they prepare those countries to fend for themselves when they became independent? I would argue no. They made possession the key word. It’s rather the opposite of what we tell our children, which is to share. As adults do we encourage sharing? 

Lee, the Laotian is interestingly not bitter about the wealth of Thailand, but does wish they had some of it, or that they could live together. Possession is I am sure what drove many of the people of Britain to vote to leave the European Union (and I know I will be criticised for this view) because “protecting your own” is what possession is all about. The USA - a country built on immigrants - now wants to protect the possessions it has acquired and build some wall to stop other people from having the same opportunities afforded to their forbears.

What can one do? Look, this is as much a matter of human nature as anything else. Like a child, you have something - you think it is yours and you want to keep it. But everyone seems to agree that the gap between the “haves” and the “have nots” is growing. This cannot, in the longer term, be sustainable. Don’t we owe it to our children and the generations that follow to see sense, to both educate and encourage this generation - and beyond - to reign in the excesses. Are the huge salaries paid out actually justified, and just how much do you need to live comfortably? Yes, you can still reward success and hard work - and that would be right because there should be no room for the idle. But people like Lee work at least as hard as many millionaires I know - and while he is rich in knowledge and in culture, he needs a little more to be able to build a better house and educate his family. Although being my usual cynical self, that “little more” of course needs to find its way into the hands of the people who need it and not the hands of the corrupt; yet another problem seeking a solution!

Britain - Redefining The Third World

When you hear stories about injustice in countries such as China, Indonesia, Zimbabwe the natural reaction from the west is to shrug and say, "well, what do you expect from these developing or third world countries"? Uncivilised, corrupt, uneducated and generally not a part of the rest of the civilised world. Well guess what folks, Britain is catching up rapidly. The country of my birth, but one I have watched now from overseas just one month short of 50 years, is filling me with dismay. A young man, accused of rape and facing a significant jail sentence was only saved at the last minute by the prosecution lawyer who discovered the police had sufficient evidence in their possession to prove the man was innocent, but they had failed to hand it over. What? And this, say the lawyers is just the tip of the iceberg. Let's be honest (okay ... not a great choice of words), the police in Britain have not come across very well in the last few years with cover-ups and other misdemeanours. They blame it on underfunding - so let's just get convictions and forget the ethics then! How embarrassing.

Then you read on ... same newspaper ... where it reports that thirty per cent of the UK does not have good enough mobile coverage to make calls and texts on all four networks. M-Pesa in Kenya is one of the fastest developing-world Banks using telephony. The citizens of Shenzhen in Southern China now do not need to carry cash because all payments - stores, transport, and restaurants are done using payment channels like WePay or Alipay, and other cities in China are going the same way. Alright, you say, but UK has legacy systems that take time to change, I understand that - but surely if Kenya and China have coverage in some out of the way places you would think Britain should be better equipped. And take Korea (South of course) - now a developed country admittedly and with legacy systems, but it is the world leader in internet connectivity, with the world's fastest average internet connection speed. About 45 million people or 92.4% of the population are internet users.

Medical services - and actually I am a fan of the NHS given the amazing way they treated my Mother - is continuously being criticised in Britain again for being under-funded, facing staff shortages and doctors leaving in droves. And what they will do when all the foreign doctors they have in place are forced to leave, following Brexit, who knows? Oh, by the way whatever happened to the money the Brexit supporters were persuaded would go the N HS rather than to Europe?  What I do know is that my annual medical visits to the hospital I have used in Thailand for well over a decade, for a very modest fee, does me very well. It reminds me also of a trip I made to Ecuador a few years back to visit my daughter who was studying there and I ended up with an eye problem. My inclination was to put up with it and wait until I was back in Hong Kong to have it dealt with, but the pain became too much so I succumbed to an Ecuadorian ophthalmologist who, frankly, was brilliant and charged very little.

Then there are negative reports on education, train services, roads ... the list goes on. It can't all be fake news - can it?

Now, you say, what a "moaning minnie" and what is the point of all this? My point is simply that Britain for many years was at the forefront of world opinions and impressions. It had an acute sense of morals and ethics. It had a judicial system that was the envy of many and a police force that people looked up to (my rather famous amateur running uncle - Stan Eldon - was a policeman and you wouldn't find someone straighter). It had a good health service, and a reputation for being innovative, particularly in the engineering sector. It didn't necessarily hand over its colonies in the greatest shape, but had provided initial infrastructures in many countries and therefore a base from which to work, but without always telling them how to do it.

But today I feel personally, and although many will disagree with me there are many others who see it the same way - the shine, almost a halo even, has gone. The reputations gained, indeed hard won, are being eroded but - even from a distance I have considerable affection for the place. And let's be honest where I live now, and the other countries where I have resided, are not perfect - as does everywhere for that matter but what I see around me in this region in particular is a desire to improve and get better, while at the same time the more I read about Britain suggests the movement is in the opposite direction.

Can I just say, then, that as with all these things at least in a democracy, the solutions are in the hands of the people. The interested, not the self-interested!

 

Ambitious Dreams - Never Let Them Die!

In this increasingly chaotic world, it is nice to know that there are still people willing to follow their dreams, and not get sucked into the treadmill of routine and job-security - whatever that is these days!

Our daily news sources, no matter what your favourites may be, are constantly regaling us with tales of the outrageous from Syrian acid attacks, through political shenanigans and so much uncertainty in many countries around the world (French elections today), rampant corruption, and down to United Airlines sinking to the lowest depths of customer engagement, and then on down to the pathetic - such as verbal foul-mouthed and racist tirades from a once revered tennis star who should know better – even though when he was playing he had something of a “brat” reputation.

As a result, there’s actually often enough out there that would make the saner people that still inhabit this planet say “What the hell; I give up!” and go seek some quiet corner of the earth (preferably one that has a likely ongoing supply of water) to live an orderly life.

But happily I know people who still wake up in the morning with a dream in their head; with an ambition to do something that is different. I don’t, in writing this, mean just people who want to better themselves in their chosen profession. That of course is ambition and it is a totally worthwhile cause. Ambition in my view is something that should be pursued by everyone who is alive. An ambition to better their own lives in some way – and look, it doesn’t have to be financially driven or all about status although heaven knows there are enough people around who seem to think that is the only reason to be ambitious. And if they improve other peoples lives in the process then better still.

I know for myself I always held the view, wrongly on reflection, that I was not particularly ambitious. My upbringing was unusual, as people who know me will testify, and I was taught to behave in a certain way that manifested itself in a large supply of insecurity and diffidence. I was unlikely, therefore, to take ambition to an “all-conquering, let nothing stand in my way” level, which is what I used to think ambition was all about. Anyway, to cut a long story short – I got kind of lucky at various points in my career that meant my “ambitions” were being satisfied almost without my being conscious that I had them.

But ambitions aside there are also the dreamers. Not in the woolly-headed sense of not having their feet firmly on the ground, but dreamers who have visions. And again, for clarity, not people who want to become a Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg, but people you will meet on the street, or perhaps at a social gathering of some sorts. I would describe them as “ordinary” people, but they are not. There is something that drives them along a path that is somewhat different from the one they had perhaps intended.

I am lucky enough to have three wonderful children who are all very different. I’m not about to discuss their various qualities here, but our second child falls somewhat into the “ambitious dreamer” category. University degree, talented musician and performer, linguist with varying degrees of fluency in Mandarin and Spanish, and his English isn’t bad, so what does he do? With his husband in Australia he has a café, wine bar and bookshop. No business experience to begin with, but a wish to do something different; to follow a dream. It won’t make him rich but he’s making a real go of it.

I am finding more examples of people like this, the most recent of which has been the revelations of (now former) FT Lex writer in Asia Lucy Colback who, despite having already done a few interesting things has chucked it all up to pursue the ambitious dream of writing a book. If you are able to get hold of a copy of the Weekend FT for 14 April you will find in the Life and Arts section a piece written by Lucy on “why ….”. She writes much better than I do, so explains it more clearly than I could. Oh, and as an aside, if anyone reading this has contact with old war horses from the Second World war who would have seen action in and around China and might be willing to share experiences, do please pass on contacts.

Lucy is an old friend, and I wish her well in this latest endeavour, but as another friend said of the venture “I would say that is a bold move, or as Sir Humphrey Appleby (Yes, Minister!) might have said “very brave” !!

And the point of all this? Never ever think that you are too old or too young to follow a dream, an ambitious dream. If you do it and it fails, you put it down to experience and you go look for something else. If you don’t do it … you will never know!

Oh No ... Not Him Again!!

"After Puckoon I swore I would never write another novel. This is it."

                                                                                Spike Milligan.

 

I have used this quote once before in a Blog, but it is so appropriate to the situation in which I now find myself I just had to use it again. When I stopped writing this Blog on 31 July 2015 I did so on the basis that I had insufficient time to continue writing regularly, and of course there were some critics out there who thought I was past it anyway. Perhaps the latter is true ... but I am of an age where I don't actually care! What does make me humbled and energised to give it another go are the continued notes I have received from a wide variety of people, some of whom I never knew read the Blog or were even aware of it, that have asked if I would reconsider, and write again.This has become especially true during the last few months, and I have found myself writing longish emails to a variety of people who have asked for a view on this or that.

And on that particular point I must reiterate something I have always maintained, which is I am not an "expert" on anything in particular. Sure I've been around, go to many places, and have an opportunity to meet many different people from all walks and at all levels of life. I guess it gives me a perspective that happily I share and in which some people are interested. 

When I stopped writing I was putting in a few more hours on work than perhaps I should have been - depending on who you listened to ... and I had suffered from a powerfully debilitating virus (all now long gone) that had left me a tad drained. And, frankly I was getting fed up with the world.

Fast forward to today and guess what, I am actually doing more than I was doing even back then. I am even more involved in business in the Middle East than I was and in more countries, although for the avoidance of doubt I am still very resident in Hong Kong. I also have increased my involvement with a couple of roles in Hong Kong. 

The upshot of all this is that after quite a number of weeks of debate about whether I can/should/want to do this all over again I have decided to give it a go and see what happens. There is, after all, much to concern us all - and it is not just a regional thing, it is global.Where does Asia go from here; remember that Asia, as if you would forget, is just not all about China. Asia is huge, young (in most places) and growing. Europe is not exactly dead yet, but seems to need some serious surgery and one has to question whether the "doctors" are up to it. North America - okay, the USA - is currently an unknown quantity and the world is holding its breath to see what happens next - while Russia and China seem to be making the most of uncertainty - and are a lot stronger than they used to be. Latin America, where I spent a few weeks in the latter part of this year (happily on vacation), has continuing political problems but some bright spots in some of its economies.

But as always it is a matter of perspective. I have always liked the quote from English author George Eliot (1819-1880), when she wrote "It is a narrow mind which cannot look at a subject from various points of view." It is one of the issues particularly I feel of a  generation younger than mine that seeks instant news, and takes what it receives as the final word even if it is a view from a few, without it being properly and widely aired. This, of course, is a generalisation but for my part I will continue to try and bring perspective to what I write, even if I do express a personal point of view.

This last year, 2016, in the Chinese Zodiac has been the year of the monkey. And what a mischievous little brute he has turned out to be. I hope that 2017 and the Year of the Rooster will be better.

Happy New Year.

Running Sore - Corruption In China

Recent reports from China suggest that social media has played a major part in bringing down a senior policymaker who had been abusing his position and indulging in fraudulent activities on a broad scale. So a victory for the people, by the people.

Let's be clear, it is no secret and neither should it be a surprise that China does not fare well on Transparency International’s annual list that ranks countries in order of merit. For the last three years it has hovered around the 75-80^th position out of about 180 countries surveyed. Even though it was 80th in the last published survey, at least its score had improved. (Perhaps, given the relative “noise” they make about standards, more surprising to me is the position of the United States and the United Kingdom. At least in the 2012 report the USA managed to move into the teens out of its previous rankings in the 20s, and be adjudged marginally less corrupt than Chile for the first time!)

It is perhaps understandable, though not excusable, why China should find itself in this position on the corruption table. When you have suffered from the deprivations of a closed economy for decades, and that economy starts to open up, you discover a lifestyle existing in the world outside that you could not have imagined. In some ways you want to be a part of it especially if you are sent overseas and get used to a way of living, only to find that you are unable to reciprocate hospitality on offer – and when you return home, you discover that your newly acquired lifestyle is unsustainable and unaffordable. So you seek out the opportunities to maintain that life. That, inevitably, leads to corrupt practices - although clearly not everyone should be tarred with the same brush.

As part of China’s ongoing reform process, the Chinese leadership have made corruption one of their primary targets. This was evident as a serious move when they appointed the outspoken and aggressive Wang Qishan as the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Wang was perhaps better known for his financial acumen (although he did a good job as Beijing Mayor) and would have been expected to take a post in that area after his election to the Standing Committee, but his no nonsense approach fits well with his current role. The fact that the measures being taken are having an effect can be evidenced by the food and beverage departments of China’s leading hotel groups, all of whom have taken a very substantial revenue hit in recent months as lavish entertaining by senior officials has been scaled back dramatically.

There is no doubt in my mind that a significant reduction in corruption can only benefit any country that gets it right - economically and socially.

So, while the tone from the top has been set and implemented it seems to be taking a much longer time to filter down to the lower ranks. I am being told by a number of different people I talk to from around China that corruption at party, municipal and village level has never been higher. These days you have to pay someone for every little thing – presumably to people who know that they have a limited time frame in which to create some wealth for themselves. But while corruption at the top is usually counted in large sums, paid by large companies with deep pockets – the payments made at the village level are by people who already have little, and can afford it less. But with the increase in revelations by social media networks, such as that experienced by Liu Tienan, it is likely to all end in tears – eventually. Nowhere to hide!!

With the focus on the example being shown by the Leadership, perhaps it would be as well to bear in mind the paraphrase of an old English proverb that says “take care of the pence and the pounds will look after themselves”. In other words, deal with the easy and small things first – corruption at the more widespread lower levels  - and the bigger levels of corruption will be dealt with over time as a matter of course.

And note, one can only talk about “curbing” corruption – eradication is not possible, as the Transparency International rankings will tell you. Developed countries have developed less detectable but nevertheless effective means of corruption – so it will never go completely.

It was Chinese philosopher Laozi (604bc – 531bc) who wrote  “a journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step”. If China is going to succeed in curbing corruption, then at least the single step has been taken. 

Crumbling Empire ... Where To Now For The USA?

Why is that people always get to use the best titles before I get there? (And why do I get so side-tracked when I am trying to write blogs more regularly?) 

I had thought about rushing to print with a piece called “Eye Spy” when the revelations made public by Mr Snowden hit the public domain. A man who clearly broke the law, but whose views of ethics and morality seemed to hit a chord with the global public, leading to much justification being put forward in support of his actions. Nevertheless, no matter how much courage the man has in speaking out, I was always taught that you were not entitled to take the law into your own hands. But like so many things, does even that get justified by an “… unless…”?

Clearly snooping on the affairs of others when it is unjustified is – even in our new world of transparency – a disgusting habit. And to try and justify it by rather petulantly saying “Well, everyone else does it” does not actually impress me much. I was also always taught, “two wrongs don’t make a right”.

No wonder America is, or was, called the land of the free. It is free to criticize everyone else. It is free to allow its citizens to run around schools armed to the teeth and kill young children. It is free to say, “we are the arbiters of good taste, and good governance”, and we have the best rules that must be followed by everyone else because we have got it right, and if you don’t follow us then you have got it wrong! And we will punish you, without recourse, but don’t think about calling us to account in return.

Apropos the “land of the free”, I came across an article in The Washington Post from January 2012 that provided in somewhat less emotive terms “Ten reasons the US is no longer the land of the free”. So, I thought, perhaps the comments I have made from time to time in these Blogs that have been critical of the USA that led some readers to believe I was anti-American (conveniently ignoring the fact I am critical of lots of places, if I find something to be critical about), were maybe hitting a raw nerve or two.

Nevertheless I was a little surprised during a discussion I was having with an American friend a couple of weeks back, when he suggested America was behaving just like an Empire of old. And if I accepted that as a theory, then I should note that its “power” was coming to an end. Soon. Caused by the emergence of new economies geographically, some high-handed behaviour domestically, and a growingly vociferous lack of acceptance by many countries – by US allies even - that the USA had the monoply of getting it right.  And the power of the US economy, evident particularly since the end of the 2^nd World War, was in terminal decline.

Personally I had never thought in terms of the “American Empire” – so I started to look it up and found that many others apparently had thought of it! Stick phrases like “The end of the American Empire” into your favourite search engine and the number of people who have already come to this conclusion may overwhelm you. And there was me, in my total naivety, not even knowing they were one.

So where to now for the American Empire? If history is anything to go by, nowhere that great really.

The British at one time managed to have a huge Empire, which basically denuded many countries of their natural resources and their wealth, leaving nothing much behind by way of “compensation”. Great administrators the British, but look at the old colonies of Africa and how they are managed today – and how poor they are.

Other Europeans, for example the Dutch and the Spaniards, had bits and pieces of Empires, and the Portuguese had the odd colony.

Step further back in time to the Ottoman and  Athenian Empires and that most original of the “Classical” Empires - the Romans, from whom the word Empire (imperium) originated. Where are they now? Shadows of their former selves.

Some believe that as we move forward we are in for an “Asian Empire” – and perhaps we are. Note, not necessarily a Chinese Empire, but an Asian one; a more likely scenario, in my opinion, than an African or Latin American one. Maybe an economic empire, which has probably been the overiding hallmark of the American Empire – although Korea, Vietnam, the Cold War, Iraq, Afghanistan and a few others cannot be ignored.

Or perhaps we are missing something here that is much more fundamental.  If we go back to the 15^th century BC (or the more PC BCE) and the then New Kingdom of Ancient Egypt, ruled by Thutmose III, was huge, and 12 centuries later you had the Assyrian Empire (located in what is now Northern Iraq), followed by the Median and Achaemenid Empires (both Persian). Don’t they say history repeats itself?

So that’s what the Arab Spring is all about! Now we know.

Hong Kong - A SAD City?

You have probably heard of SAD ... or Seasonal Affective Disorder to give it a proper name. It means basically that if there is a lack of sunshine people get depressed and I am sure you have noticed it yourselves. How much happier do the folk around you seem when the sun is out? Many countries because of their geographic position will have a higher percentage of SAD sufferers than others. If you are in virtual darkness for most of the winter because it just doesn't get light for many hours each day you can understand the depressed feeling it would create.  Others suffer a change in mood because of unusual weather patterns. Dubai today, for example has a lot of glum looking people around because it is - somewhat unusually for this time of  the year - raining. 

SAD, as the name suggests, is supposed to be a seasonal affliction, but I am getting a sense that in Hong Kong we are beginning to suffer from the syndrome on a regular, even annual rather than a seasonal basis.

Okay, maybe in Hong Kong I have to admit perhaps we do have a lot of things on our minds that could be distressing. Pollution is never pleasant. Striking dock workers, a recent phenomenon and by the way where did their Australian brethren come from to support them? (I wonder whether the Australian dockers union knew that some of their brothers had an all expenses paid trip to Hong Kong. And were trying to compare wages in Australia with those in Hong Kong - hello; real world!) There is the threat of a new Occupy Central movement in support of Universal Suffrage - this is going to be depressing for the many commuters who will have to thread their way past the debris of such a movement that seems to have been created to provide "grandstand" opportunities for the politicians involved. Perhaps the Government could consider hosing down the streets at night to keep them clean.

And then there is "Government" itself - that re-branded (but hard working) civil service that occupies the Governmental role, unelected and unremovable facing off against the elected  de facto and permanent opposition who operate with no accountability for their actions.

Okay, perhaps there is a reason to be depressed after all. But has nobody got any good news out there? If we do, it is getting increasingly hard to find.

How many times did I hear former Chief Secretary Anson Chan, in extolling the virtues of Hong Kong in her promotion of the city overseas and indeed within Hong Kong itself, point to one our greater strengths - a "can do" attitude. This has become a rather petulant "won't do" attitude now. And it's not doing our future any good at all.

I am in the Middle East at present, where I visit from time to time, and where the attitude to the future is just a little different - despite the rain!! There is a recognition here that the world is not sitting on its hands and doing nothing. Investments here and in Sub Saharan Africa and In Latin America are growing quickly, and those who sit on their hands too long will get pins and needles. We are undertaking an exercise that looks at the future of the world, and the impact it is likely to have on business here. Business that is going to be done by younger people using technology far in advance of anything we know about today. Few older people running companies today have any idea as to how their businesses will be done in 10, 15 or 30 years time, yet they have to start putting in place the framework that will enable them to face up to new competition. Where new market players without traditional baggage, will be fierce competitors.

This is the sort of thinking that Hong Kong needs. As a City, even, not just its individual corporations.

The business community doesn't speak up enough, I get told, because they fear being "branded" as uncaring or sympathisers with the present form of Government, or worse, the Chief Executive who has still not been given much of a chance lets be honest (no pun intended), then the media will have a field day saying that comments from the business community - yes, the same community that creates jobs - are self serving.

Is the business community really willing to push the Government to do something about pollution, and no it does not all come from China, even if there are costs involved? Heaven knows, we tried a few years ago. But how come Tokyo and Seoul managed to clear up their heavily polluted cities (and please don't tell me it's all because of the wind that we are where we are!)?

But if we carry on doing things the old way, and if we allow a bunch of disruptive and grubby tents to be erected in the business district of Hong Kong, and do nothing about the levels of pollution, then we will be a SAD city in more ways than one.