The Undeniable Power of Hindsight

Of all the "sciences", hindsight is clearly the most accurate. "I wish I had thought of that before ...” or “I forgot to take that into account ... “ is the cry of too many when something has gone wrong. Or maybe a comment like “... with the benefit of hindsight”; the inquest into the London Bridge murders in England and the comment by the police afterwards being a recent and particular case in point.

I had a senior colleague once who used to say - "if you look backwards, you will go backwards". I didn't agree then and I don't now because it is by looking backwards you should be able to understand that there are many things in life that get repeated, and you use that knowledge to go forward better informed. That, I submit, is different from being able to change the past - which of course you can’t, and only moving forward! The Global financial crisis in 2008 was a particular example of the former. I was later asked to speak at conferences on the GFC, and I used to point to the causes that contributed to that event by quoting from a book called The Country Banker, published some 120 years earlier, that highlighted the similarity between the cause and effect that were around at the time the book was written and the GFC.

The rationale for following a potentially hazardous course of action, when referring to a similar past event is usually “but it's different this time". It rarely is.

Hindsight; something that perhaps David Cameron wished he had when he started the whole mess that has turned out to be Brexit, and frankly it doesn’t matter which side you are on - the whole thing has turned out to be a total dog’s breakfast. Hindsight - perhaps useful when looking at the causes of two world wars in the last century, and something President Trump might like to look carefully at when poking his fingers in the eyes of Iran. As a side note, I have a friend who is writing a book about certain events of the Second World War and who as a result has been interviewing a number of the remaining people involved. She tells me that an overwhelming majority of them are very nervous about the current state of affairs in the world. These are people who have clear hindsight - and do not like what they see today. It would be as well to remember the Chinese proverb that say that one dog barks when it sees something ... a hundred dogs bark because they heard the first dog!!

And so to Hong Kong; I have no particular insights but I wonder how the architects feel now - with hindsight - of the agreement created prior to 1997 covering the return of Hong Kong to China under the 99 year lease that the United Kingdom held over Hong Kong island and a bit of Kowloon. As with any lease the leaseholder would have had every right to demand the return of the property at the end of the lease. End of story - no arguments. But an agreement was struck that gave Hong Kong a further 50 years of basic autonomy - at the end of which period China will, like it or not, recover complete control over Hong Kong.

The recent demonstrations in Hong Kong over the potential introduction of an unpopular piece of legislation is actually understandable - badly reported in the media (no surprise there then!), the demonstrators have a point to make, although trying to tie this in to - for want of a better word - an additional plea for democracy, is likely going to fall on deaf ears. And frankly if democratic Western Democracies (many of whom do not seem to be in great shape anyway) want to make a case for Hong Kong to become a full democracy should they not have thought of that 40 or 50 years ago. The UK in particular, who had the ability to do something at the time. And what would be the situation in Hong Kong today if in fact China had assumed full control in 1997? 

The world is not perfect; never has been and never will be, and you only have to look at places elsewhere in the world to realise actually how well off you are. That said, when it’s on your own doorstep it becomes very personal and threatening. So it needs sensible voices on both sides to debate these issues - and to rationalise what is possible and what is not.

I know, easy for me to say this. The chances of me reaching the 50th Anniversary of the Handover are minute, and even if I do I will be lucky to be compos mentis, but please don’t let it become a matter of  “... you know, in hindsight!”

Comments

[David Eldon]

To "a fan" - an interesting question, although having been out of Britain for more than 50 years and without having any particular intention to return I am not sure I can speak to British "obligations".
However that aside, your email address, as provided, appears to have been created for the sole purpose of asking a hypothetical question and now the address seems to have been deleted. I have to ask myself why. Journalist?

[A fan]

Do you think Britain has any obligation (moral or otherwise) to give citizenship to all BNO passport holders in HK? China is not even recognizing the Joint Declaration, and in my (and I guess many HK people's) view reneging on the promise of one country two systems and high degree of autonomy.

I certainly hope we will continue to have your unique insight (or at least hindsight by then) when the basic law expires!

[amy]

Hi Mr. Eldon - I'm a journalist in Hong Kong; I'd love to get your comment on something related to this post, but I can't find your contact details. Would you kindly contact me on the email I provided?

[Rajib Dalui]

Nice post author. Thank you. Keep it up.