Eldon-Online

Hong Kong 20 Years On - Almost Halfway!

Okay I admit it, just couldn't resist a comment and before anyone thinks about telephoning HSBC so they can "distance themselves from my comments" - I have been nowhere near the Bank,and the comments are entirely my own. Well, maybe not entirely. I was kind of given a gentle nudge by a comment on my last Blog - and having read a lot of hand-wringing and critical comments about the lack of democratic progress in Hong Kong during the last 20 years and how shameful it is, I guess I had to make some sort of appearance.

Let me say upfront in case anyone believes as a result of what I am about to write that I am either a rabid left-winger or a turgid liberal. I believe in fair play, and a degree of equality but also believe that if people are successful through their own efforts they should be entitled to reap and retain the benefits. I do therefore believe in, and am in favour of the democratic process. 

Perhaps we should put this in context. Firstly, if the UK had been serious about a democratic process being installed in Hong Kong perhaps they should have thought about introducing it 30 years before the "end of the lease" rather than right at the last moment. And if indeed they had thought about it, they managed to keep the concept very quiet.

Also, wasn't there an effort to introduce more democracy into the Hong Kong process just a couple of years ago, and it was rejected because it was not exactly to the liking of some people? Look, if you are creating something new, and although you might hope it was perfect the first time round, is there not a case to be made for launching it and then dealing with the inevitable imperfections as they arise, working on them once you have perhaps a little more time to think them through?

I would also maintain that while the zeal and the effort over the "demands" for democracy as evidenced by the Occupy Central movement was relevant to a few, the real causes for discontent were more related to the cost of housing and job security for the young of Hong Kong; practical issues that remain to be addressed, I believe.

But the comments made about my last Blog were telling, with one section in particular reading "... democracy is not an end in itself; it is instead one means to achieving an end, which end could be defined as 'liberty and freedom from tyranny, plus the pursuit of happiness under a just equitable and effective Rule of Law as determined by a reasonable consensus of society'.

A lot of truth in that statement, in my opinion, and it suggests that despite all the demands for democracy there is also an element of be careful what you wish for when many of the things you want, perhaps not all of them, are already present. Also, in many countries (no, not all I accept) I believe that the so-called democratic process is tainted by lobby groups who try to ensure that they will be well-represented in the parliament (or by whatever name it is called) so that they can continue to operate in a manner favourable to themselves. This leaves the people, who really believe there is a democratic process in place, no better off than they were before. The rich remain protected but at least those who have a vote believe they have had their say. So far, anyway, until the wealth gap becomes more telling as it is likely to become.

I accept this view of democracy is at one end of the scale, and one pursued by people like Noam Chomsky in his, "Requiem for an American Dream". In addition I do believe that a democratic process, properly administered and regulated is the best way to go, but I have become increasingly cynical about the validity of many so-called democratic elections where there are strong beliefs, often supported, that ballot boxes have somehow been "stuffed" to the advantage of an incumbent leader. Is this the sort of democracy we want? And if you look around the world today at the "great democracies" are they really producing the sort of results and leadership you want?

There is no perfect solution, of course, and quotations about democracy are plentiful. Nevertheless, I think we do need to look at the situation of Hong Kong in detail. Is there a general opinion that we would prefer to have a better and freely elected representative body to discuss the issues that affect Hong Kong? If the answer is yes, then it has to come with the caveat that it must actually do things (and I mean "do") that will benefit Hong Kong in the long run both for the population at large but also a place to do business. I would need to be convinced that this would be the situation.

We also have to be realistic. Hong Kong was under a 99 year lease from China. That lease is now over (and has been for 20 years), and the "original owners" - like it or not - have the last word now.

Twenty years on and thirty to go - we still have time to put ourselves into a position of relevance and strength within the context of China as a whole, and for sure the world in general. The last 20 years have been, shall we say, "interesting" - we need to work at making the next 30 years into a story of which we can be proud.

 

Optimism Must Win In The End

I am a regular reader of a weekly magazine that is, rather creatively, called "The Week" where amongst the really good stuff there is a fun "Wit and Wisdom" column. In the last edition there was a quote I had not seen for a long while that goes "What the caterpillar calls the end, the rest of the world calls a butterfly". It stopped me in my tracks because I was only the other day bemoaning the fact to someone that I have gone from being a person that is usually on the side of optimism, over to the "dark side"!! I have tended, rather simplistically, to say you have two choices in life - you can be happy or you can be sad, and I know what I would rather be. And you also have to remember that having wealth and material possessions does not necessarily make you either happy - or a better person.

I have to confess, looking at recent events all around the world there do not seem to be a whole lot of things that are a cause for optimism. The negative energy that is evident almost everywhere - and trending - is a concern. I have commented previously on the growing trend for nationalism, and I know I am old fashioned, but I also look with some dismay at a world where a sense of entitlement is evident in some countries. Lots of people with their hands out but not prepared to work, believing that people who have managed to accumulate savings over the years should somehow be subsidising others. Compare it to those countries where they actually have nothing and are deserving of some humane support - but where their leaders do not seem to suffer from malnutrition or the lack of a decent place to stay. Add to that the people who are of the opinion that their view is the only view and that no-one else is entitled to be heard. And that particular phenomenon is one that infiltrates everything from politics, to religion, to everyday life. Excepting of course my wife who is always right - well, most of the time.

Then there is the growing despair over the competence and general ability of Governments to deal with important issues of the day. Of course they are usually elected to look no further than the end of their particular garden fence, or they won't get re-elected. They are a little like the financial analysts community who have turned major companies into quivering wrecks in their desire to produce good quarterly results to avoid criticism by the analysts who only see the short term and very rarely the long term vision so badly needed by those companies.

Hence a growing sense of gloom in my recent blogs over insular thinking, short-term goals, and persuasive but unhelpful rhetoric, some of which has a somewhat aggressive tone. All leading to a pessimistic streak that is unusual.

But you know, what's the point in sitting around and moping? Either accept the negative and be miserable - but please don't come and talk to me about it and make me more miserable. Instead, adopt the philosophy of the wonderful comic character Wilkins Micawber who appears in David Copperfield by Charles Dickens and is the eternal optimist. Often beaten down and suffering all sorts of problems he says in one piece ... “Welcome poverty! Welcome misery, welcome houselessness, welcome hunger, rags, tempest, and beggary! Mutual confidence will sustain us to the end!” Perfect.

We take a view today that we are living in the worst of times. It's a comment I have used in various speeches throughout the years because you only have to think back to the lives of most of our parents (if you're my age), grandparents and great grandparents. Think what they lived through. If it wasn't strikes, riots and civil commotion - which we still get today in some places I grant you - it was all out war, or it was an influenza virus. The 1918 flu epidemic killed an estimated 50 million people in a matter of months - three times more than had been killed in the First World War. 

I am the first to admit that I have been lucky to have been born when I was, in the country I was, to a hugely supportive parent. But what happened since has not come on its own; a lot of hard work and effort, supported by others who I hope I have supported in turn. A world that has seen some good time. And it continues to grow and evolve. Things I did that disturbed my elders is replicated today by the next generation, it will continue and it was ever thus. But we have been through good times. There are more people out of poverty today than there were a decade ago. That said, yes, I do recognise and do not like the fact that the wealth gap is widening: there is no need for that sort of greed.

But we should be optimistic about progress. We need to stop gazing at our navels and bemoaning our fate or it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Look instead at the good that is in people - in ordinary people - for example after the appalling fire at Grenfell Towers in London recently. Look at the actions of ordinary people after the terrorist attacks in Britain - religion didn't matter; ethnicity didn't matter, rich or poor didn't matter and it demonstrated to me at least that there is more good in the world than bad.

I think, like Mr. Micawber, that we have cause to believe that optimism will win in the end - just as long as we don't let the lunatics take over the asylum.  

Jigsaw Puzzles ...

Don't you think the world we are living in is rather like one of those irritating jigsaw puzzles that you think is almost finished, and then you discover there are a few pieces missing?

I mean let's start with the election in the U.K. last week where the result which, some weeks earlier, seemed to be a foregone conclusion. It became increasingly clear as the day drew near that this was nothing like the pushover it was supposed to be, and the final tally should have surprised no-one, except maybe some over-confident elements in the Conservative party. But now there are surely pieces missing with a hung parliament and a total new set of dynamics to play with. In the Middle East, recent and generally unexpected developments involving the GCC and in particular the effective blockade of Qatar has heightened some tensions and shifted the dial rather. And it all seemed quiet on the surface. And just for some light relief, in Hong Kong some comments on the status of Uber; a situation that really needs a review to find the missing piece - and perhaps a little more seriously the approach of the twentieth anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to its original leaseholder.

Some weeks ago the British Prime Minister, as you will all be aware, decided that she would change direction by 180 degrees from her previously declared promise not to hold a general election - and hold one! Labour didn't stand a chance, the polls said. The Labour leader was constantly being ridiculed, not least for things he had said as an MP in his earlier years, including his apparent early IRA sympathies. He had no hope. He needed the young voters on side to help him; and on this occasion they were more than willing to oblige. After all, they had been robbed of the chance to remain as part of the EU by the narrowest of margins. An opportunity lost, in their view, by a referendum imposed on them by the Conservatives. You know all this already, and will also be up to date with the many commentaries subsequent to the result. I do think, though, that there was possibly one thing that Theresa May could have done to help her cause in a Britain that is becoming somewhat more xenophobic in outlook. Following the second terrorist attack in London, and the appalling "out of context" insults tweeted by President Trump about London's Muslim Mayor Sadiq Khan, if Mrs May had very publicly said "How dare you - your invitation for a State Visit is withdrawn” it would have shown her to be strong and not chasing a friendship we do not really need. That is to say, a friendship with the USA, yes, but not with that man. Of course we now know that he is questioning whether he should come anyway, in case he gets shouted at by protesters. A more than likely scenario!

The Middle East is somewhat problematic. The effective blockade of Qatar by certain of the Gulf Cooperation Council members (and, rather bizarrely to me anyway, others including Yemen - joining a Saudi-led initiative when the Saudis have been bombing Yemen) is not good news. Again, the media has covered this extensively although it is all rather complicated and in jigsaw puzzle terms there really are some missing pieces. If the GCC has been emboldened by President Trump's emphasis on supporting Saudi Arabia against Iran and he is therefore supportive of this move, what does that do to the large US base that exists in Qatar? I question I believe that is also a puzzle to one or two senior officials in the Trump administration. The puzzle is slightly complicated by Oman not initially joining their GCC counterparts, as they would prefer solutions to confrontations, and for real reasons I have yet to fully understand Turkey is ramping up their support of Qatar. In other words there is, in my mind, much more to this than meets the eye, but it has the potential to get out of hand so keep a close watch on events if you have interests in the region.

And so to Hong Kong. Uber! I could have written a whole piece on Uber, but Jake Van Der Kamp in the South China Morning Post beat me to it! He also focused on a more detailed financial rationale for his comments than I would have done, and provided an argument with which I agreed. Again!
Anyway, following the recent arrest of about 22 Uber drivers for "breaking the law" in Hong Kong the Secretary for Transport said, in response to a question about Uber "The company that you mentioned ... can run its businesses like how existing taxi companies do now". Please, Minister, NO!! If you call an Uber, 9 times out of 10 it turns up. Also, it doesn't matter if you are going from Kowloon to HK Island or vice versa, they still turn up. If on the other hand you are standing by the roadside looking for a taxi the driver either takes one look - thinks “foreigner, no thanks” and drive off, (no obligation to stop, it seems), or they quickly put up a sign to indicate they are from Kowloon and don't know the Hong Kong Island places. Unless of course you look as if you might be able to guide them, and here they usually make that judgement on a sweeping assumption that a foreigner doesn't speak Cantonese. Taxi drivers in Hong Kong are their own worst enemies and it is no surprise that Uber has become so successful. It is time that the government started to look at how Ubers operate in places like Canberra, Dubai, or in Malaysia. Places where they are regulated and provide a service that is needed. Put the last piece in the puzzle and get on with it. And an aside on the Malaysia story I was listening yesterday to a deal whereby a medical services provider in Malaysia has arranged with Uber to transfer patients from a clinic to a hospital or another centre if needed (clearly not an ambulance case) and where the patient gets a discount on the fare.

And finally a brief word on the 20 years since the return of Hong Kong. I must say the media are either finding no one to talk to or no one wants to talk to them - unlikely the latter, to the extent that they have even come to ask me for my comments. Actually, flattered they have asked but there’s not a whole lot I have to say. What did people expect? I believe I am a realist. I don’t think the deal was the best available but then I am not sure that Britain had the strongest hand to play - a bit like Brexit really and that’s a whole different jigsaw puzzle!