You may or may not be familiar with an often quoted phrase that reads "the Empire on which the sun never sets". The phrase was attributed to a writer in 1821 who was describing the extent of the British Empire as being a nation where at least some of their interests were in daylight at any given point in time. The origins of the phrase, historically, go back much further than the 19th Century of course. The Persian King Xerxes is said to have used a somewhat similar expression before invading the Greeks in the 3rd Century BCE. And in the modern era around the 16th and 17th centuries the phrase was applied to the Spaniards and the Portuguese. But are we about to witness a new "owner" for the phrase? China!
In this sense I do not mean that China is intent upon invading various countries around the world and imposing their rule on them, in the manner of the Europeans, but it follows a similar pattern as China searches the world for resources.
It doesn't matter which newspaper you read in whatever country, or which conference you attend on whatever subject, there is often an underlying "sameness" in the topics that are top of mind in discussions, and they reflect our world today and the future. The sort of thing that I am working with colleagues on at present as we try to look forward, and which apart from issues such as technology, demographic change and the rise of state-directed capitalism (okay, economic nationalism) also looks at the "war" for resources. And where China is concerned it is this last element, resources, that is giving rise to their possible accession to the role of being the country with interests that will be in daylight for 24 hours.
The forecasts come at you from all directions. Diets in China are changing rapidly, and as a result there is a greater demand than before for foods that would not normally have been a part of the staple diet. The demand for meat, for example, is growing rapidly meaning that water resources and feed for the cattle is needed. And in relation to cattle feed, more than 60% of the world's soya bean production is going to China. And then there is food consumption generally. Recent figures I have seen suggest that already more than 30% of global rice production, 25% of the world's corn and 50% of pork products are being exported to China.
The urbanisation of China has meant the conversion of agricultural land to use for building, resulting of course in the decline of land available to feed a growing population. No problem you say, China is a vast country and has lots of land, but only about 15% of China's land mass has been suitable for agriculture, mostly in the eastern half of the country. Even in 2008 the China Daily was reporting that arable land was barely above the critical minimum. so, with the reduction in that land, the population growth, the diminution of water supplies and a population with changing tastes for food, no wonder China is looking around the world for sustainable supplies of food.
And where are they looking? Try Africa for starters. Nations that have arable land which is underdeveloped, relatively small populations and an appetite for an infusion of development funds. Step up, China (and places like Qatar, as well).
Cooperation agreements have proliferated between China and African nations which will help China to secure food supplies for some time to come. The unknown elements that exist with these agreements include how long it will be before the African countries decide that China is taking too much of their natural resources - in this case food. Or a change of African Government decides that previous deals were "unfair" and want to renegotiate new deals. And if China has done nothing to reverse its own land shortage, and therefore has to pay up, it could be held to ransom but that's a longer term story.
Africa is not the only continent that attracts China. In Latin America, both Argentina and Brazil in particular have attracted Beijing's attention, although there is a little more scepticism about land purchases by foreigners in both countries. On that continent you find flights going to all corners of the region carrying Mainland Chinese on a mission. People ranging from the agricultural industry to their Bankers, singlehandedly searching out the best deals.
Of course it's not just food, it's other commodities too - minerals, high grade coal and, of course, oil. Do you ever wonder why China is not so enthusiastic about intervening in Iran or Iraq? They see a resolution to these issues as being better solved by diplomatic and political means - not by war, with which actually I agree, but their main eye is on the oil. Did you know that if car ownership in China ever reached the same levels per household as America, China would consume the total global annual oil supply to run them?
Just to keep itself fed, running, and earning money China is going to need to be everywhere. As a buyer of goods including raw materials and food, as a supplier of manufactured goods and services, as tourists, as consumers of products.
They will be doing business 24/7 on some continent or other. And it's going to involve the continents of Africa, the Middle East and Latin America like never before, ultimately creating a new trading region that will potentially put the West on the sidelines.
I think the title has moved on - a bloodless coup!
Interestingly Henning Mankell's 2007 novel The Man from Beijing has as the plot backdrop a plan by a Chinese government clique to appropriate arable land in Africa. I have to confess I found the book really quite hard to follow but that bit was quite thought-provoking!
Posted by: Lucy | 09 May 2013 at 00:06