Eldon-Online

And The REAL Winner Is .....?

On the one hand - Hong Kong, but on the other?? I really must stop sounding like an economist ...

Talk about fluctuations. The early favourite losing almost all momentum from the outset, and even though the gap narrowed towards the end, the clear winner based on strength, skill and tenacity was .... definitely Fiji!

Oh! You thought I was talking about that other event - the annointing of Hong Kong's next Chief Executive? (Well, you can't really call it an election can you, when hardly anybody votes). More about that in a minute.

But over the weekend, Hong Kong was at its best. As a tolerant host of the Cathay Pacific/HSBC Rugby Sevens, welcoming hordes of overseas visitors, some of whose behaviour and habits would seem outlandish but which was all pretty good natured. I have not seen the attendance figures, but I would be surprised if they were not a record. And - yes I am biased - but so good to see the "auld alliance" back together of Cathay Pacific and HSBC - and even better to see helping to present some of the prizes, HSBC's former Chairman Sir Willie Purves whose early involvement in the Sevens set Hong Kong off on the track of creating what surely must be adjudged one of the best Sevens tournaments in the world. No, THE best Sevens!! Hong Kong does it very well, and although our police force were at full stretch on Sunday with the various events going on - they were unobtrusive. Good for them! Good for us!

And for the other event? What was apparently pre-ordained, was not to be.

But after all the shenanigans at least we were spared the ignominy of having re-runs and second votes. And if the outcome was not what you wanted - sorry, that's life. But you know what - having got it over can we just now get on with it? 

That of course is unlikely to happen. Already we have the analysts, the re-analysts, the commentators who commentate on the comments made by the analysts all trying to give their definitive opinions on what happened, what went wrong, what went right, who is to blame. Is it really any surprise that the first four letters of the word analyst are so wonderfully descriptive?

I thought Henry Tang's description of why he didn't get the position were the most sensible of the whole campaign - "I didn't get enough votes". Well said Henry. I think it is a shame that whoever was advising you did such a bad job, and it is also a pity if the powers that be decided to hang you out to dry, in the interests of - well - themselves really.

The facts seem simple:

a)    CY Leung has received the mandate to be CE of Hong Kong for the next five years.

b)    For whoever is paying attention to us - China in particular, the rest of the world, our trading partners, our competitors (think Singapore, think Shanghai) - we need to demonstrate that Hong Kong is somewhere to be taken seriously, and that we have a lot to offer.

c)    We have had an acrimonious and debilitating run up to the events of this last weekend, making us look rather juvenile. We have some ground to recover.

If we want to drive Hong Kong further into "backwater" status, then let's just carry on as we are, but if we have any pride left in our city - and the Rugby events of the last weekend have left a very positive impression in the minds of many well-placed visitors - then now, right now, is the time to move on.

That includes trying to ensure that C Y Leung is willing to fulfill many of his statements, recognising that the "Occupy Hong Kong" movement under the HSBC Building in Central has made its point (apparently - because I never did see the point of it) and it is time to pack up and move "because you are achieving nothing other than making our city look untidy", and learning from the experiences we have just gone through in how to mismanage public relations.

There is much to be done, and as usual - it is up to us! The "blame" games shouldn't even start. What's done is done - get over it. Wouldn't it be nice if for once we could all try and pull in the one direction and to do what is right for Hong Kong? Then we will know the identity of the REAL winner.

 

Look, Listen ... and Learn.

Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. (Douglas Adams - author of "The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy")

How true is that?

Every day we are regaled with stories of people who never seem to learn from the mistakes of others. Accident "black spots" are designated as such because people never heed the warnings even if they hear about them regularly, and they are well signposted. Political crises occur because the lessons learnt from messes made by previous administrations are not remembered, because ultimately it becomes politically expedient to tread the populist route rather than making the tough calls. Financial crises appear periodically despite the politicians and regulators saying "this is never going to happen again!" after the latest one. To which the rejoinder is always "Oh yes it will!". And it does! We do not learn.  

Of course the learning process does not have to relate solely to mistakes, as given in the above examples.

The ability to listen and learn "positively" is alive and well. I recall occasions not that many years ago when senior figures from Singapore would arrive in Hong Kong and invite small, select groups of Hong Kong businessmen for lunch. They would compliment the invited guests on their successes and then, with them suitably preened, would dredge out of them the "secrets" of their success. Back in Singapore they would sift through the information, pick out the good bits they could use themselves or suitably adapt, and discard the rest. Sadly, because "we knew it all already", there was never a return match.

Singapore today, as many will tell you, is a transformed city. It has picked up ideas that have suited its development and does not worry too much about the "not invented here" syndrome that hinders growth in other cities. If it works, use it! It isn't important where it came from initially.

And they are doing it again. The Economic Development Board in Singapore is flexible in its attitude to attracting talent to the city. It is prepared to cut deals. It will contribute to the salaries of suitable experts from outside Singapore if it means better talent will arrive in the City, develop business, enhance the prestige of the country, transfer their knowledge and contribute to the continued prosperity of Singapore.

Okay - Singapore may not suit everybody, but it is telling a compelling story, and people are listening. Including people from Hong Kong!

And if Hong Kong needs yet another prod that we may not be looking or listening enough - beware the next issue of the Global Financial Centres Index. After the last report that indicated there was little difference now between London, New York and Hong Kong - this latest issue will indicate that Hong Kong is slipping. London has improved slightly and New York is moribund in the index, but Hong Kong has fallen. In fairness, Singapore and Shanghai have fallen too, and we will need to wait until later this month to understand why, and then perhaps we can learn from others? Improve our standings?

Clearly our drop in ratings is not (hopefully) directly connected to the CE race chaos, but it is yet another indication - as if we really need any more signposts -  that Hong Kong should be concerned about its reputation as an IFC, and the mess with Messrs Tsang, Tang & Leung isn't doing the city any good.

There is plenty of good advice available in Hong Kong. Innovative ideas that were once the lifeblood of this city cannot have just disappeared, but perhaps no one is listening.

Meanwhile ... Back In The Real World

As Hong Kong waits with breathless anticipation for further raunchy revelations or alleged underground illegalities to emerge, aimed at besmirching the candidates in the race for election as the city's next Chief Executive, the world around us meanwhile has been witnessing some rather more serious issues that should be commanding greater attention from our somewhat parochial media. 

Elections, for want of a better or more accurate description, have taken place in both Russia and Iran during the last few days. The North Koreans meantime have, once again, successfully pulled the wool over the eyes of a number of countries by offering to talk about the cessation of their own nuclear ambitions in return, as usual, for food to feed their starving masses. And the odious Assad continues to kill his Syrian countrymen, women and children without conscience or any regard for humanity. Like father like son, I guess.

In the case of Russia, the election result which gave back Mr Putin the Presidency he had temporarily had to give up, came as no surprise. Well, maybe not entirely true. While the result was never in doubt in the minds of the foreign community, it surprised the people inside Russia who had been protesting en masse against his "leadership". Perceived to have had a tear in his eye when acknowledging the cheers of his supporters (he said it was the cold wind that caused the damp eyes), maybe he was crying about the fact that he had to pay people to stand and wave their flags in his support.

 But although this was supposed to have been a fair and democratic process, there are certainly not many (actually, not any) people I have spoken to who believe it to have been the case. Allegations of fraud are rife, amid concerns that this marks a reversion to the bad old days of dictatorship. We can but hope not.

On the face of it, better news from Iran - but is it? 

In the 2 March elections for the legislature, a high turnout of voters saw a great amount of support for those allied to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Almost ensuring that Ahmadinejad will not be re-elected President next year. And while the Supreme Leader is not exactly a fan of the West, he is potentially less volatile than the current President.

But how will the President react to this result - given his history? Probably quite badly, but maybe not immediately. There has been much talk in defence circles recently about the heightened level of concern surrounding Iran's nuclear capability and its attitude towards Israel. There is also concern being expressed by the same circles about Israel's potential action - rather than its reaction. The major question being "who strikes first". Not, you will notice, an "if" - but almost a foregone conclusion that a pre-emptive strike is more probable than possible. That surely is worrying.

And still in the Middle East - what about Syria? A matter for the Arab League to sort out -  Western forces really should not intervene, but this is getting to be too much. Whilst I can understand the comment made by a former British Ambassador to Syria who said that even if Assad goes the same way as Gaddafi and Mubarak - hopefully the former in my view - there is no guarantee as to what we might get by way of replacement. A regime not so cold blooded as Assad surely, but then again and regrettably, when the first wave of euphoria at the toppling of Assad is over there will be many scores to settle. Acting under orders or not, you won't get much sympathy from a mob baying for retribution. 

Yes, North Korea has pulled it off once again. How many times is this?  "If you give us some food we will be happy to talk about not proceeding with our nuclear capability"  At least feeding some of the people is the right thing to do from a humanitarian perspective, but come on people - been there, done that, or prove me wrong - Please!! And by the way - nothing on the discussion table about stopping nuclear supplies to Iran?

But, you say, why should any of this bother Hong Kong? We have no political strife, only political satire. We are economically okay. What does a Russian election, a bit of North Korean kabuki which we have all seen before, and the actions of some mad people in the Middle East have to do with us?

Well, potentially quite a lot actually.

If Russia reverts to its old ways, repression, communism, "four legs good, two legs better", markets around the world will get nervous, and China is a little close in proximity to Russia.

North Korea will remain quiet for a little while, as it has done in the past while it consumes its food (not sure who gets it, but looking at the size of the new leader I can make a guess). But then it will start to get a little belligerent again, as it has done in the past. Let's think about this. The "boy", to remain in power, needs the support of some octogenarian generals who will see, at last, an opportunity to do something they have wanted to do for a long time. Something dramatic. They won't care, but China is a little too close for comfort.

If Ahmadinejad wants to make a point to the Supreme Leader that he still has power and, like a cornered snake, decides to attack first then any semblance of stability in the Middle East goes out of the window. This will of course impact the developed world, in the midst of its fragile recovery, and it will impact China. 

And if China is impacted, so too will Hong Kong be, because most of our eggs have been invested in the land mass to the north of us!

It is not a comfortable situation in which we find ourselves, while we hide our sniggers behind our hands at the discomfort being felt by at least one of the candidates for Chief Executive. But if the global situation is not enough to concern us - or at least make us aware that there is a real world out there - also give some thought to the reaction of Beijing to our Hong Kong blues! Could they by now be fed up with their potential poster child? Will they now say enough is enough? They had their chance, but now Shanghai is going to be positioned as the financial centre for China while we really do become what others have predicted - just another city in China.

Our fate, I would argue, is clearly in our own hands.