"But my prediction is that in 2011 the "Dear Leader" will become the "Dearly Departed Leader" ."
Rather scarily, in December 2010 at an Economist Magazine event in Hong Kong called "The World in 2011", and in my Blog dated 20 December entitled "Whatever Next" I made the above prediction (alongside four others, in the hope I would get at least one right!). Although I was the "public face" of that prediction, in all honesty it was a joint effort. The creation mainly of my good friend and Canadian collaborator who eventually persuaded me that it was possible.
Today, 19 December 2011, we received the news that it has happened. Kim Jong Il, North Korea's leader for the past 13 years is no longer. Dead, apparently from a heart attack on 17 December.
The second half of the prediction as to the future of Kim's son will still need to be followed carefully.
The world may be nervous about the possible repercussions of a power struggle affecting the rest of the world, but personally I do not think it will amount to much. I do think that this could be the opportunity the world needs to start making inroads into North Korea. Kim Jong Un, 28 years old and "The Great Successor", despite his European "education" is understood to be a complete under-achiever of limited ability and intellect. On the one hand, this could be a dangerous, if not lethal, combination. But on the other hand - is this the opportunity "the Generals" crave? Hopefully the diplomacy has already started - and the world is on the same page. China has a major role to play here, and it can be statesmanlike and responsible within the global context.
As a person who has never been happy about making predictions - especially about the future (partly because my success rate has not been high) - getting one as big as this right (I think I got them all right actually - but the others were dead certainties) inevitably means that my forecasting days are over.
My crystal ball has never been better than that of anyone else, which remains the case, but it is always nice to get one right occasionally, particularly when you were beginning to doubt yourself. Always go out on a "high", they say. Quit while you are ahead. And that really is what I should do without tempting fate.
But ... with the Eurozone crisis unresolved, French elections that could turn everything upside down, the establishment of the new leadership in China, and a still uncertain Middle East ... there are many possible topics for predictions. None of them, however, are likely to be positive and I think that 2012 is going to be generally gloomy, but with a lot of hard work and probably considerable compromise, we will come through it and be facing the end of next year with renewed confidence.
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