Libya - Liberated Liability?

And still it dominates the headlines.

The first phase of the Arab Spring - Tunisia, Egypt and the skirmishes in Bahrain and Yemen - now seems a long time ago. No significant progress or changes have been made in any of those countries, and with the Moslem world now about to enter the Eid holidays after the holy month of Ramadan, not much is going to happen immediately either. The lack of progress will not come as a surprise to many Middle East watchers, with the key still seen as being a resolution to the Egyptian "conflict". The longer the delay in appointing a new Government, the more chaotic is going to be the end result.

Syria, with the suffering and the brutality being meted out by Assad's Government troops also remains distressing and worrying, but it would be preferable that a resolution here needs to be orchestrated by the Arab League without relying on outside "help", unless it is properly sought. And it also needs to be done soon, before we get any more loss of innocent life.

But Libya is where all eyes are focused right now. And despite the positive signals that favour an ultimate resolution by what are still being referred to as "rebel forces", despite the "legitimacy" they have been given by various foreign powers, we have not got to the end game yet.

News today, for example, suggests that these rebel forces are prepared to let Gaddafi go to a "safe" country - Nicaragua has been mentioned - if he is captured alive (the odds of which, I would suggest, are remote). I would also suggest, though, that allowing Gaddafi to leave the country - humane though that might be - should only be contemplated under the most stringent controls as to his future activities, and I would with all due respect to the leadership of Nicaragua feel that they might not be able to provide the most secure haven.

Even as soon as tomorrow morning, Gaddafi may have been found - dead or alive!

But look at the resistance being put up by people loyal to the Gaddafi regime. It surprises many of the people I speak to who ask why some Libyans remain supportive of a despotic and unstable leader? Even though they have the means to see for themselves the excesses enjoyed by the family, and the cruelty with which they dealt with the civilian population. But you have to remember that Libya is not a cohesive country, bound by a common purpose. It is a country of tribal clans, some with scores to settle. And indeed, some with blind loyalty. Even the death of Gaddafi does not necessarily mean all the trouble will immediately stop. But allow Gaddafi the freedom to roam relatively freely abroad, and I wouldn't mind betting that it would not take him long to get up to some potentially globally damaging activities.

There is also the question as to how the world will behave, should Gaddafi be captured and held for trial. What would a "fair trial" look like? I am sure that there can be very few rational people in the world who believe that Gadaffi's actions could in any way be justified, and therefore the outcome should be predictable.

And in the meantime what happens now? Well, maybe Libya is about to be liberated but I fear that it is going to remain a liability for some time to come.