Eldon-Online

The Middle East - Internal Combustion.

Events in the Middle East have moved more quickly in the last month than many anticipated, and although I am always reluctant to re-visit previous Blog themes, at least too quickly, I have spent much of the last two weeks responding to questions on my own take as to what is happening there.

I claim no special knowledge, no particular expertise, no guruhood. The fact that I have been associated with the region for more than 40 years seems to give people confidence that I know "what is going on". What follows, therefore, are my own amateur "musings". Others will, I know, with better knowledge and information have their own points of view, so take these as my contribution to a general debate, listen to others, and in the end sift through what you have heard to draw your own conclusions.

The easy bit for me to start with is to point out what is not happening. This is not a wave of anti-Western, anti-Christian or anti-external anything else - at present. It is a series of internal protests, perhaps in some cases long overdue, against corrupt, dictatorial non-democratic Presidents or family dynasties, by a modernising Arabia that is changing faster than its leaders. An Arabia that will no longer tolerate the injustices they perceive as being carried out in their own backyards. An Arabia that is taking the next steps onwards from the sentiments expressed so vividly in his book "Farewell to Arabia", written in 1966 by the late David Holden who, coincidentally (?), was murdered in Cairo in 1977.

It seems clear, to me at least, that the events in Egypt were precipitated by a successful uprising in Tunisia, and those in Libya by the success enjoyed by the Egyptians. It suggests a bubbling fermentation of discontent just under the surface in those two countries, waiting for the catalyst that would unite the opposition into a coherent force against the incumbent regimes. Tunisia provided the spark, with technology providing the mobilisation tool through the internet and mobile phones.

Elsewhere, North and South Yemen have been snapping at each other for a long time despite their apparent unification in 1990, and similarly the Sunni minority and Shia majority in Bahrain have been in disputes of one kind or another for as long as I can remember. The excuse to act, fuelled again by events elsewhere, was not far below the surface.

But I suspect we are not done yet. Other regimes across the top of Africa are looking variously vulnerable, although perhaps not as seriously as that of Colonel Gaddafi. In the case of Libya, I had become increasingly hopeful that they harboured a genuine desire to show some remorse and display some common sense by re-joining the global community. Despite some odd misjudgements being made by the West, for example, over the Al Meghrahi case. Gaddafi's son, Saif, appeared to be at the forefront of reform but the chances of any of the problems in Libya having a happy ending look very remote today. I don't think Gaddafi will be with us much longer and then, as with Egypt, we will have to see what we get as a replacement.

Recent actions taken by their HIghnesses Kings Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Jordan have been very telling. Hand outs, restructuring of parliament in the case of Jordan, and other measures designed to hold back any thoughts of insurrection in those countries by the local population have obviously been the advice given to otherwise nervous monarchies.

As an aside in the case of Saudi Arabia, a country where I have lived and worked for a number of years, I have been fascinated by the progress made in very recent years as a result of the work of the elderly and now ailing King Abdullah. In a Kingdom that has isolated itself from the modern world, it has nevertheless made changes internally that would have not been thought achievable a few years ago, and it is Saudi that I am watching most carefully at present.

I could go on ... and on, with more in-depth thoughts about these countries, and ideas I have on places like Kuwait and Oman, but unless I was writing a book I would run the danger of trying to condense too many thoughts into 1000 words or less.

The summary I have been leaving with the people who have asked me is, in macro terms, relatively simple.

For me, this is internally focused by country - not externally focused by religion or other considerations. The political ramifications are yet to become evident, and we need to watch carefully who emerges from the shadows to lead the new regimes. Hopefully they will be strong leaders capable of understanding the needs of their modernising populations, and recognising there is a world out there that would benefit from unity rather than division (but don't hold your breath on that one!). I am not as bothered by the political risks at present as I am by the economic risks.

The economic fall-out could be dramatic. While we remain globally dependent on oil, until such time as there are serious alternatives, large scale reductions in exports over an extended period of time will have a major impact on a world economy that is only now beginning to show signs of recovery. And this time it is not just the West that will suffer - it will be the East as well.

I am not a purveyor of doom and gloom. There are plenty of people out there who already fill that role. And when you get to my age you begin to realise that your time has become shorter - so you should aim to enjoy each day as best you can. But

- while 2012 is just a number that the numerologists can have fun with,

- and while I do not subscribe to Nostrodamus' end of the world theory for 2012 (and if it ends I won't be here to defend myself anyway), 

I do think we must keep a close eye on the Middle Eastern region of our globe and listen very carefully to the pleas of those who seek our help and support.

There Are Nine Million Bicycles In ... Where?

Do you remember that great song by Katie Melua 6 years ago about there being nine million bicycles in Beijing? As a frequent visitor to that city, I am at a complete loss as to where they all are now (or even were then, come to that), given the number of cars on the road, which have been increasing by a frighteningly high number every day. Certainly until the end of last year, new car registrations in Beijing alone were running easily at 10,000 a week on average. And given that some of them would have belonged to new drivers, I guess the driving test bureaus were being kept busy approving new licenses! I don't mean to be critical, especially given the falling standards of driving in Hong Kong and Britain, to name but two, but driving and road discipline in Beijing is neither good nor enforced. Perhaps being subjected to the most enormous traffic jams is a bit of a blessing. Anyway, the authorities are keen to restrict the new registration levels for the city, which will fall to only 240,000 new registrations this year - give or take a thriving trade in fake licence plates!

 But there we go. An example of what improving living standards and increased wealth can do to a country. It encourages you to give up the trusty, non-polluting, health inducing bicycle (well, so long as someone does not bump into you), and replace it with a gas guzzling polluting monster that doesn't actually seem to get you from A to B much faster. (Oh! And judging by some of the pictures I have seen of bicycles in China, the cars don't necessarily carry as many people). 

And with that as background it was with a sense of some amusement that an article in the London Evening Standard newspaper, forwarded to me by a friend earlier this month, caught my eye. It was about the growth of bicycle use in London. 

The author of the piece, Ross Lydall, an astute observer of the London scene was pointing out that those “bankers in the City” (not a misspelling - either word!) are now refusing to change firms unless they are able to secure a parking space for their - yes - their bicycles. The well-heeled Savile Row suited financial community, having pedalled rapidly through the streets of London (sounds like a new verse to an old song) and parked their bikes more securely than a junk bond, then want showers and locker spaces. No bike space, no shower, no locker – no move!

Now I am sure the pedallers in Beijing in days gone by were not nearly so demanding. In fact securing your bicycle was almost an insult, as it then prevented someone else from using it that needed to get from X to Y, while you scouted around to find another similarly unlocked bike to continue your own journey. No “material possessions” stuff there.

But here we are, in what has arguably been the most successful financial centre in the world (until someone in the Government came up with the brilliant idea of driving business away through the imposition of stifling taxes - and yes, I know the bankers sort of brought it on themselves), increasing the use of cycling so dramatically, to the extent that it is said more bicycles cross central London bridges in the morning than cars.

I do applaud the change in lifestyle that brings a leaner, healthier worker to their offices in London, and hope this is a trend that will continue to grow, but you can't help wondering that if the rise of Beijing (and Shanghai of course) is demonstrated by the abandonment of the bicycle and the adoption of the car, what does the reverse mean for London in the short to medium term?

Perhaps the London cyclists will in time adopt a rather shapeless "uniform" for cycling made of a durable grey or brown material to provide them with protection from all weather conditions, and which has a high Chinese collar. And then, when they realise that the world has overtaken them as a financial centre, they will demonstrate their resurgence by returning to their cars - if there's any oil left to run them by then - but that, as they say, is another story!