Eldon-Online

Middle East - Change For Good?

Recent events in the Middle East have been attracting some headlines, but maybe not in a joined up fashion, and I wonder if we are missing something here.

Think back to the Iranian elections in the middle of 2009. Despite the declared outcome, which was decidedly inconclusive and quite probably should have led to a regime change in that country, the matter seems to have moved into history. Since then there have been other political disturbances in the region, relatively minor in nature. But recent events in Tunisia have led to a change in leadership, with the President having been brought down. Was it this that emboldened the people of Egypt, sparking the revolts there against the 30 year rule of President Mubarak? Despite the fact that the people probably believe 30 years under one ruler is possibly long enough, Egypt seems to have been seen as one of the more stable Middle Eastern regimes. And then there have been the events in Lebanon with the stand off between the Hariri factions and Hezbollah. Riots in Yemen - always a likely tinderbox internally as much as externally. Not to mention the ongoing problems of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Worrying signs? I would suggest this recent outbreak should be viewed with more concern than usual.

Of course, instability anywhere in the world should always be a cause for concern but this in recent years has been particularly so in the Middle East. Judge that from the amount of attention paid to it by the Western powers, where any fears about the Middle East have been centred on the impact they would be likely to have on the rest of world. The perennial problems surrounding a solution to the vexed issues of Israel and Palestine. The threat of nuclear-happy regimes plunging the world into a war they don't want, especially when some nations are already involved in wars in the region they probably shouldn't be in, (although that is perhaps a personal view not shared by all), and any potential to disrupt the oil supplies craved by the west and the east.

But these latest issues seem to be different from previously. They appear to be internally focused, country by country - but why are they suddenly happening everywhere - almost as if the disturbances have been somehow orchestrated? Which, by the way I am fairly sure they are not, although if I am wrong would lead to a big ... what if!

But there a two implications here that I would suggest keeping an eye on, particularly if you are doing business in the region.

The first is what does this mean within the countries currently facing these problems? Are the riots and disturbances being led by moderates fed up with corrupt, overbearing and despotic regimes? if so, they are certainly not rebelling against the feared militaristic and brutal regime of the type practiced by Saddam Hussain which therefore begs the question - who are the rioters, and are we going to find new, better managed regimes taking over as a result of any successful riots? From everything I have seen so far, I fear not. And surely Israel is taking a more than careful look at a situation where they could suddenly find themselves surrounded by totally hostile nations instead of the uneasy peace that exists between some of those countries today.

The second implication is one about which I am particularly curious. So far, the difficulties appear to have risen largely in the region's democracies, where citizens have been permitted to express their feelings through some form of ballot box and where the occasional, but perhaps less focused, disturbances have occurred. But the Middle East is still home to a number of monarchies, or "family-inherited" regimes. In the current climate, should these less democratic States now be looking over their shoulders - wondering whether they too are sitting on a tinder-box?

It is true that in a number of cases, the expatriate populations vastly outnumber the indigenous, and as a result those regimes should be relatively safe from insurrection and turmoil. But there are others where dissent seems never very far from the surface, despite the best efforts of the intelligence and security forces (is intelligent security an oxymoron?), to keep them under surveillance and control.

Certainly, I would imagine the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Syria are looking very carefully at their friends - and enemies! I would.

This has some way to run, and those believers in the predictions of Nostradamus and others who predict the end of the world and conflicts in the Middle East causing the next world war should be rubbing their crystal balls even more vigorously.

Watch this space, as the saying goes - clarity is going to take some time to achieve.

City Life - A Little Pinch Of This And That.

I suppose that many of us have tried our hand at cooking something at some time or another, with varying degrees of success. And if you have been very lucky,(hopefully when someone else has been paying!) you have tasted the work of a master chef. But award winning chef or just cooking at home, I guess that we have all experienced meals that have been better than others.

Accepting that everyone has different tastes, chefs try to create something that will appeal to the majority, recognising that there are always going to be outliers who would prefer something else, or who are allergic to certain foods, or who are just picky. Chefs experiment. A little pinch of this, a teaspoon of that. They taste, they modify. They know that when they have created something unique, different, but appealing to the senses of sight and taste, it is the result not of ingredients hurriedly and haphazardly thrown together but it has involved patience, trial and error. And they get it wrong sometimes. It has parallels in performing arts, too, where the "overnight sensation" is rarely "overnight", but has been lucky enough to have been spotted after many years of training and hard work. Of course as always there are exceptions, but I believe the general rule holds good.

A good Chinese meal, with its many courses, provides contrasts in taste and texture.

So where I am I going with the culinary tales? A city is like a number of dishes under preparation which, when combined, should create if not a feast, at least a decent dinner. The leader of the city is hopefully a "master chef" who, with the assistance of his or her staff - Government/Civil Service (in Hong Kong), aims to create a meal which the majority can enjoy without indigestion. Creating a variety of dishes that, by the way, are subject to scrutiny along the way by a panel of judges (the Legislature) - some expert, some not!

But for that meal to be filling, nourishing,tasty and appealing it needs many ingredients.

A city cannot be just a place, let's say, for business only. It would be like serving one dish consisting only of pak choy (白菜) and calling it the whole meal. It needs meat, fish, soup, vegetables, rice, accompaniments, seasoning and desserts to make it complete.

A city needs a similar amount of variety. It has to have a heart and soul. It needs its support activities; its doctors, teachers, hospitals, schools, police. It must have a social structure and an integrated community to make it work. It needs its culture, for example the arts, in all their various forms. It needs its sports and social events that are appealing not only to the local people, but to others from overseas who in coming to the city spend money in our shops and businesses.

And here is where I think our Government and our Legislators might let us down.

Take, for example, the vote in the Legislative Council last Friday where the Government request for funding to host the Asian Games in 2023 was comprehensively defeated. Now actually I am not against the decision. The Government should never have put in a request that it seems was financially flawed. It initially understated the amount needed, which brought into question just how open-ended was the financing likely to be. But just as important to the failure was the headline assertion that holding the Games in Hong Kong would be good for our elite athletes. Umm, yes I am sure it would, but actually wouldn't it have been even better for the thousands of school children and adults who would have benefitted from having newer, bigger, better facilities? In other words, wouldn't this have gone down a lot better as a community project (and if the arithmetic had been better)?

One of Hong Kong's more international attractions is the Hong Kong Sevens. The annual rugby tournament that visitors from all over the world come to see in our 40,000 capacity stadium, built by courtesy of the Jockey Club. But remember, this is NOT actually the Hong Kong Sevens. It is the International Rugby Board (IRB) sevens that happen to be played in Hong Kong. Already hugely popular, it is continuing to grow in interest and stature, and annually people are left looking for tickets because the allocations have all gone. But let's say that Singapore builds better facilities, a 60 or 75,000 capacity stadium for example and provides Government support, then the IRB may well say - "okay, we're going to hold the event in Singapore in future". 

Meanwhile back home, Hong Kong is playing with the idea of building a new stadium in Kowloon that may be ready in another 5 years, if we're lucky. Capacity? Around 42 - 45,000. By the time it is complete the rugby could have long gone, and how much revenue is then lost to Hong Kong, permanently,as a result?

And then to the arts where Funding remains an issue in Hong Kong. It has never been high on the "dishes" list of the "complete meal" and, as has happened in Britain recently, is usually the first to have its funding cut in a downturn. In fact an article in the UK Guardian a week ago deals with the issue of the arts humorously and compellingly, making the case that although everyone believes the Arts to be loss making it is actually a profitable part of the overall picture. Maybe our legislators should take a look at what happens elsewhere before consigning requests for funding to the scrap heap.

Maybe, just maybe, rather than knocking the Government for everything it does and creating collateral damage as a result, the Legislative Council could be creatively constructive and suggest ways these projects could be made more palatable or acceptable. 

The Government coffers are not exactly empty. And there has to be some room to help the master chef create a better dish for the benefit of many - not just a few.

And no, of course we must never ignore the plight of the poor, the homeless, and the apparently hopeless. They have them everywhere in the world too - New York, London, you name it. But equally we should not ignore some of those other things that cost some money to create but which help to make the meal whole.

 

A Line On Property

Not Hong Kong property, (about which enough has been written), but property from elsewhere being sold in Hong Kong!

I often get surprised by the advertisements that appear in our local Hong Kong press, extolling the virtues of buying a desirable property in say Melbourne or London, although the latter is probably more prevalent. Actually, "uncomfortable" might be a better word than "surprised". Not because the advertisements say anything illegal or technically inaccurate, of course. Now that wouldn't be allowed, would it? No, I get uncomfortable because the London pad of your dreams, "only 25 minutes from London's Oxford Street shopping area by underground train" is often not quite what it seems.

Some of my Hong Kong friends have a reasonable working knowledge of London - or parts of it, and have property there. But this is property in the more fashionable areas of the city like Belgravia, Sloane Square, smart parts of Victoria, and Mayfair. Areas of a rather genteel London (well, everything is relative!), slap bang next door to Harrods, a genuinely short distance to the fashionable shops on Bond Street or Regent Street, and Theatreland. Good restaurants and Clubs.

But these are not quite the geographical locations of the advertising in question.

For example, there have been some recent opportunities to buy properties in the "newly fashionable" areas of Islington and Edgware. And the advertisements are always accompanied by a little diagrammatic showing you just how "easy" it is to hit the centre of London in a short period of time by train - from the moment the train starts its journey.  But let me tell you that if you are stuck at the top end of the Northern Line on the London Underground, which is where these little satellite towns/villages are located, and if you think you are going to have an easy ride on the tube every day to get to the famous London shops and sights, think hard before you buy.

The Northern Line is arguably the worst of the London Underground's lines. It was started in about 1890, it is deep, claustrophobic, carries over 200 million passengers a year - and is starting renovations that will see the line closed at weekends for about two years, and a reduced service in the evenings, just as you wanted to come home from dinner. It probably has the poorest record for delays of any line in London.

But that information is not included in the sales pitch. Of course, why would you? 

Then just recently there have been the advertisements for property in Croydon, the self-styled "third city" of London. (Not sure who gave it that name - maybe the same people who came up with "Hong Kong - Asia's World City"?). But Croydon less than three years ago was the subject of a London evening newspaper report that said, "Poor Croydon badly needs a facelift. Computer models of how the badly lined south London capital might look in five years' time were presented in a wishful brochure last week. Examination of the treatment plan reveals both naïve optimism and a refusal to face uncomfortable truths". Recent investigation suggests little has changed so far.

And like so many other cities around the world, it has its seamier side. Indeed, one of its (in)famous daughters said of it only last month "It's so rough. My Dad was in the pub the other day and somebody got shot". The speaker? Kate Moss - she of supermodel fame. The subsequent commentary on her remarks from local inhabitants was, perhaps surprisingly, actually largely supportive of her words, although one wit reportedly said - "Don't knock Croydon Kate, if we didn't have the criminals where would you get your drugs from?" Naughty - but kind of funny.

The purpose of these observations is not to disparage Islington, or Edgware or even Croydon. I am sure they are nice places to live in, and I am equally sure that the properties being sold are of a decent quality. But from the people in Hong Kong I have asked who have shown an interest in acquiring something in London, (and not the same types as those with the properties at the smart end of town), it is clear that they have no idea where they are buying. (It's a bit like the stocks they buy on the Hang Seng index - they buy by the stock number, not the underlying business of the company). London to them is like putting a circle around Central, Mid Levels and the Peak, whereas what is on offer is like living at the Lo Wu border or Yuen Long. It is not what they expect.

The moral of the story?

Even though the pictures look wonderful, the price is right, and the countryside appealing - is it actually where you expected to be? Is the station entrance for your 25 minute journey to town outside your front door, or do you have to walk 20 minutes to get there? Are the pictures you are being shown an artist's impression, missing out the warehouses in the street behind you, or are they genuine photographs of the neighbourhood? And if you can afford to spend £200,000 or more on a property, you should be able to spend a little more to go visit your potential purchase before you sign on the dotted line - even if the sales person offers you a further 10% discount if you sign then and there.

No Time For Reflection

I don't really like the idea of wishing time would move faster. I remember being told on my 21st birthday (just a few years ago, of course!!) that if I thought the first 20 years had gone quickly, then the pace gathered speed even more quickly afterwards, with subsequent years racing by. So it has proven to be the case, and this should therefore create in everyone the thought that you live for the day. Make the best out of it that you can.

You can do nothing about the past - other than pick up and remember the important lessons (investment bankers in particular, take note!) - but you can do something about the present and the future. You can look to the immediate future which, if your health is reasonable and you are able to live within whatever means you have, is under some degree of your own control. And you can look to the distant future and the life you want to try and create for your children, and your childrens children.

Of course, there are plenty of selfish people around who think only of themselves by saying "I have always had to look after myself - so the children can do so as well" ... but in my naivety I still believe there are many more decent minded folk around. But perhaps counter intuitively, I have to say they seem to come from the less privileged parts of society.

Well, here we are already in 2011. If you are a Korean, you became one year older yesterday - even if you were born on 31 December 2010 (and you were already one at birth), but the world is not about to slow down and let you catch your breath. 

The West, Europe particularly, is in my opinion still going to go through some generally tough times in the next 12 months. The European economies are not out of trouble yet, and Britain with its austerity package, is about to face the anger of the unions and the students. Petrol prices in that country are set to soar - putting aside the 2.5% increase in VAT that happens on 4 January, taking it to 20% - there is a further fuel tax to be introduced in April 2011. With costs of basic supplies across the board rising, unemployment doing the same, and for tourists now facing punitive taxes to leave the country, no wonder my aged Mother still insists that I am better out of the country than in it!

It seems that the USA has had some "better" news, particularly on the employment front, but everything is relative, isn't it? How much were the employment figures boosted by seasonal work, I wonder? And I noted from the news the other day that people who bought property in the initial crash are now defaulting on those new loans in bigger numbers than before.

Asia, meanwhile, shows signs of resilience. Hopefully it is not going to be a case of "we're all right, so let's not worry about what is going on elsewhere". We had better worry, but we do have the skills in place to continue to grow. But the more we grow, the less the West will like it, and the more protectionism we will see. We need to live for the day, indeed, but not smugly.

The newspapers in the last week have all been about "that was the year that was". Picking out the highs and the lows. I would rather they had concentrated on providing some insights into the year ahead. Where are the opportunities, the jobs, the new ideas, the countries of growth? To encourage people to seek alternatives - maybe not pleasant in terms of expectations- but surely better to be contributing something than expecting to be paid out from taxpayers money. And on the subject of tax, who is going to be generating those jobs and the cash that is needed to run them? If you tax people out of existence, they have the ability to take their talents elsewhere. And they will take their ideas and jobs with them.

It is fashionable in Britain these days to say "it won't happen; there will be no brain drain". Maybe they are right, but maybe they are not. I know of at least one employer (non-British) that is planning to shift a large number of its employment opportunities to another country. It will offer some of its British employees the opportunity to relocate, but jobs will be lost.

It would be wrong of me to say that reflection has no part to play in our lives, but given the current state of our global economy I would suggest we need to concentrate more with getting on with life, and doing less reflecting on the past. Striking (lawfully, and hopefully peacefully) and objecting generally are a part of modern day "rights" - in developed countries in particular, but there is also a requirement to tackle difficult times head on - because if you don't, there will be nothing left on which to reflect.

Thus on a rather generally downbeat note of caution, but nevertheless tinged with some optimism may I extend best wishes for a healthy, courageous 2011, in the hope that when we do get to the "reflecting" bit next December we can say it was tough, but look what we achieved.