Eldon-Online

Dubai - A View

As my Mother (the indefatigable Mary- 90 years old on Monday) used to tell me, "It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open one's mouth and remove the doubt!" A saying attributed to many from the Bible, through Confucius to Lincoln and lots in between. And I suspect I would have been much better to heed the advice in the case of the latest news from Dubai but alas, I have probably said too much to the media already in response to many questions. Plus the fact that my Blog has received a significantly high number of hits in the last 24 hours, suggesting that either someone forgot to turn off their computer, or someone was looking for news. Ah well, I thought, I had better write down my current thoughts because that way I only have myself to blame if they get misinterpreted!

Starting at the top, was I surprised that Dubai World had asked for an extension of time to repay their debts? Well frankly, yes. If you have been following Dubai at all recently you will have noted the continuing positive statements and assurances coming from the Emirate. Traffic was getting back to pre-crisis levels, job security was becoming less of an issue, and the good restaurants were doing a lot of business. So people were generally more bullish. Bond prices moved up in anticipation of a full payout or successful refinancing for Nakheel in particular. I said as much, if asked, that I believed this would not be a problem.

So what happened? I have absolutely no idea - and other than a very few people at the very top in Dubai - neither has anyone else. So all the speculation amongst the financiers, the analysts and the media is just that - speculation. And thereby lies a major problem for the Emirate. Public relations for Dubai over a period of time now has been less than successful. I have suggested on more than one occasion that it could be improved, and I am sure I have not been alone in expressing my concerns. If you are open and clear in your communication, there is little room for misinterpretation. The converse is true. If you provide unexpected news - unexpected because it was only very recently that assurances were being given which raised expectations - and then close down for 10 days, speculation is going to run wild. Unfortunately. markets will open on Monday for business and unless something is done very quickly to limit the damage, then the markets will, as markets do, over-react.

And why will the markets react this way, other than because they are being clearly spooked by the uncertainties? Because the way in which the announcement was made left out a critical ingredient, which was - does the moratorium cover principal and interest (in which case if this the intention, lenders will have to make immediate and very substantial provisions by the year end), or does it really only cover principle?

Many Dubai World companies are generating revenues. Not as much, obviously, as they were prior to the financial crisis but enough to service their debt. If they had clearly announced an intention to keep interest current, the situation might be a little less fraught.

So, is Dubai really finished; is it going to fall over? My personal view, and this comes with all the usual health warnings of someone who is as much in the dark as anyone else, is that Dubai will ultimately come through this - somewhat chastened perhaps but much wiser. I take comfort from the fact that Abu Dhabi has, so far at least, said nothing to suggest that they will go back on their earlier statements of support. I believe this latest and unexpected change of strategy could be a result of someone saying -  "... before we get any more support from the UAE coffers, we should see - on a commercial basis - what we can do to re-arrange our finances..." It happens in the commercial world and Dubai World is a commercial organisation. Finally, whilst I have the highest regard for the younger entrepreneurial Dubaians (if that is the correct term) who were being afforded opportunities for development far in advance of their counterparts elsewhere, and who did exceptionally well in a bullish environment, I am pleased to see some grey hairs taking controlling positions - creating perhaps some stability in rocky seas.

My worries for Dubai, in the short term, are that the world still thinks short term. Memories in many financial quarters seem to have already forgotten the parlous state of the financial markets last year. And although the Icelanders may be rejoicing that a commercial enterprise has run up almost as much debt as Iceland - there is at least a possible saviour in the wings. The other worry is that like the proverbial rabbit caught in the headlights, Dubai does not move swiftly enough to satisfy the very people who can help.

But it's just a view.

...And More Wait!

While I take a positive decision about my weight, I really wish the Government in Hong Kong could do something positive about another type of wait!

Ever wondered why traffic in Central, particularly in the early evenings, is so diabolical? No, it's not the weight of rush hour traffic, although that clearly does not help. It is the inability of that traffic to move freely. And why is that?

I refer to the habit that some people have got into of being so lazy that they cannot suffer a little wait, or at least be considerate to other road users. They make their drivers park, sit, wait, double park - even triple park, for their convenience. If you are waiting for your car, which then arrives, you are often into the third lane of traffic to try and get in to it. It will only be a matter of time before someone gets hurt - physically.

It is selfish people who make their drivers come down town to pick them from areas such as the front of Princes Building , and then expect them to stay - preferably parked until they come out of the building. If they are delayed by 20 or 30 minutes, it doesn't seem to matter to them, and if they are with a friend they seem to enjoy the final discussion/chat just to indicate how important they think they are. Meanwhile cars are backing up round corners, and jammed on Chater Road because the traffic cannot get past the offending vehicles, slowing everything down. Cars with number plates like NP 36**; NZ 15**, CG *8, all of which have been recent culprits. (Okay, so I have partially protected them, but I have the photos - and I am sure they won't read this anyway, but steam released!)

Every so often the police come by, and then the drivers take off in a hurry, knowing that they should not be waiting so long, or be double parked, but the uniformed services undoubtedly have better things to do than act as traffic wardens and as soon as they leave the scene - back come the cars.

I feel sorry for the drivers actually. I am sure that if they are not there when the "boss" comes out of the building, expecting to step directly into his or her car, they will be told off.

Many other "world" cities seem to manage to cope with the problem through higher standards of driving discipline, ( I am sure someone will pick me up with a "world" city example that is worse - but I am talking about the city I live in), and through the employment of traffic wardens - and indeed, there seem to be some wardens in Hong Kong, occasionally, but never where they should be. Probably concerned about the stream of abuse they would suffer if they tried to book certain people. During the course of the day in Central, there are a number of favourite (but illegal) stopping places where drivers remain for as long as they dare until a policeman comes by and moves them on. Surely the amount of fines you could impose on illegal or disruptive parking would in most cases pay for the wardens, and would have the added benefit of making Hong Kong's roads a little easier to navigate.

I guess it is as much a plea for a little common courtesy to others. And yes, to whoever is thinking it, if I don't like it I can always go live elsewhere - but it's probably the pollution that will drive me to that decision before selfish individuals! I have enough friends who do behave decently to make that choice easier.

Weight For It.

The reminders of ones own mortality seem, unsurprisingly, to be more frequent as one grows older but for some reason, at least in my case, they always appear to happen around this particular time of year. Five friends or acquaintances in the last three weeks alone and scarily, to me anyway, not one of them over 60. Were there underlying reasons? Perhaps in the case of two, yes, but the others were quite unexpected.

This alone sets one thinking, and having adopted a rather more sedentary lifestyle in recent years as sporting activities gave me up one by one, I discovered the distinct possibility that Michelin Man might have been modeled on a mirror image I was beginning to notice was following me around. Trying to ignore the fact that shirt collars were apparently shrinking in the wash, together with waist bands that suffered a similar fate at the dry cleaners, I battled bravely onwards. The need to meet deadlines and keep my work up to date was a convenient excuse. I was sampling any and all air line food because "it was something to do" on a long flight (actually, on short ones too). I was consciously sitting down to finish set meals at corporate events as it would have been rude to my hosts to leave anything on the plate (an old Westerner's habit - more as in "old Westerner", rather than an old habit - okay, it was how I was brought up! It was rude to leave anything, because it meant you didn't enjoy it and anyway, there were lots of people who would have been glad to have anything you left. )

Meanwhile my family were setting an example that I sort of missed. A new interest in training for triathlons from one, a continuing interest in extreme long distance planetary runs from another, a daily walk at speed from a third - and by proxy, of course, I was benefitting from all of this activity.

But then, another birthday slips into view and disappears, and younger friends who should still be around are suddenly no longer with us. The lifestyle begins to suggest (rather like the occasional doctor one sees), that even a modicum of additional exercise would not go amiss and, all of a sudden, the penny drops again.

Some years ago, about 2BR (two years Before Retirement) I think, I was wagered a decent sum of money that was to be handed over to charities of my wife's choice, were I to lose a fairly substantial amount of weight. I took on the challenge and won it, didn't know when to stop, and carried on removing further kilos. (I really understand how anorexia can get to people but, believe me, I was nowhere near that point!). However, in going down that path I began to look really old - no, seriously - to the point that I was asked at one time if I would say something publicly to reassure customers that I was actually well and healthy; they thought otherwise, it seems.

So now, senses restored, I am back in the groove. Thus if you see an elderly looking gweilo (I can call myself gweilo if I want to!) staggering slowly up Old Peak Road - all the way to the top occasionally - please don't break his concentration, or reduce his oxygen levels by speaking to him, but do give him a friendly wave, and pick him up if he has fallen over. If I start to look a little gaunt - the weight always comes off my face first which is a real nuisance - don't be alarmed. I actually look forward to the point when I can get back into my trousers without that sharp intake of breath prior to fastening them at the top, without bits of my neck hanging over my shirt collar, and being able to put on a different watch occasionally.

And if I reach my goals, there will be a couple of charities that should surely benefit from my own pleasure at having realised in time (hopefully), that while some things change you can positively help yourself.

When I'm Sixty Four....

Remember the old Beatles song?

                        … will you still need me, will you still feed me

                        When I’m sixty four?

Well ageing is at last getting to be a recognised phenomenon right up there with climate change, although if no changes are made in that latter department, none of us will be still alive at 64 in a few generations!

One could say, slightly stupidly I suppose, that ageing is a “fact of life”. (Well, it is!).  But whilst it is a fact that has been around for a while now, and there have been many papers and books written on the subject, it has only recently become a primary topic of regular discussion in the media particularly in relation to China. It was some years ago I first heard the phrase that China was going to get old before it got rich ... but then things went ominously quiet.

I first took a serious interest in the subject of ageing a little while before I became one of the relevant statistics. HSBC did some work with an engaging professor of gerontology on the subject of demographics, Dr. Ken Dychtwald, who has been one of the pioneers in studying the subject at length – putting a commercial interpretation on what it all meant for an organisation like the Bank and the territories in which it operated.

China then, as it does now, loomed large on the horizon back then but commentaries were more often aimed at the declining fertility in and the greying populations of, Europe and, in Asia particularly, of Japan.  Fast forward to today, and recent reports on ageing in China.

A society is officially ageing, according to the UN (and to the SCMP, where I lifted the definition from), when 10% of its population is 60 or over and 7% is 65 or older. In China, from the latest available figures, those numbers are 13.59% and 9.29% respectively – whereas Hong Kong’s comparative statistic for the over 60s is 17.14%. No wonder Donald Tsang was so pleased with the statistic he trotted out to justify the government claim that Hong Kong air quality was not so bad, proving that Hong Kong people were living longer – and probably living indoors! 

In China this longevity issue creates a real strain when one considers the effects of the one child policy, which is now really beginning to show through. Situations where one male child marries and has a child of his own, so he has a family of three to feed. But his elderly parents, and his wife's elderly parents are living longer and need supporting, so one person is supporting seven. No social security safety net, no government healthcare net, and unemployment in China is rising. 

But there are problems elsewhere too. Most of the time the older ones amongst us rejoice (as long as we are in reasonable health) that we have an opportunity to live longer, but the strain it is going to put on society as we move forward is going to be almost as immense as the problem in China. Older people will be capable of, and in many cases want to, work for longer, meaning a clogging up of senior job promotion opportunities for the younger generation. If, for whatever reason, people do stop working at around 60 or 65 - and they are going to live until 90 or beyond (I believe there is a statistic that suggests 80% of every female child born in a developed country in the year 2000 will make it to 100 years old), which government is going to sort out healthcare issues that arise - and how does a worker in that environment make sufficient money to put aside as a pension?

It really is a can of worms for Asia, particularly if you care to look at the other end of the demographic lifeline.

One the one hand, you can take some comfort from the young populations that exist in Asia. In India, one out of every three people is below the age of 15. Indonesia, Korea, Thailand and Vietnam also have relatively young populations. In other words they have a "youth bulge" - to use one of the ADB's more technical terms. A bulge that has the potential to stimulate economic growth in the short term and asset creation in the longer term. But the stimulation comes from jobs, and they may no longer be so readily available.

And let's add one more ingredient to this rather depressing scenario. Asia has too many men. They cannot find wives, and if they can neither do that nor find jobs, they might just find extreme nationalism instead.

Lessons? Let us get on with doing something serious, really serious, about climate change but let's also deal with another growing problem that has the potential to create further instability.

Meanwhile, on a lighter note, I'm going back to read some of the revised song titles I have just been sent that will resonate with those who remember the originals; songs that are now entitled "The First Time Ever I Forgot Your Face", "I Can't See Clearly Now" and "A Whiter Shade Of Hair"