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17 June 2009


Herbal Incense

lot of good information, I come here all the time and am very happy with your updates, Thank you


I liked your site, you are very interesting to write. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!


I liked your site, you are very interesting to write. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

David Eldon

Thank you. I will put something out on China in the next day or two.


You write well will be waiting for your new publications.


I think you are not quite right and you should still studying the matter.


Shanghai rise is benefitial for HK.

Why? As Shanghai becomes more and more like HK, the rest of China will become more and more like HK (more free, flexible laws, improved regulatory framework, more flexible policies in place, etc..)

Shenzhen will also be reaping from the fruits of increased policy decisions.

HK-Shenzhen will eventually merge and will be the undisputed IFC hub of China and Shanghai will be Chicago of China.


incidentally, I see that this year's Global Financial Centres Index by the City of London has Singapore in the top 3 financial centers of the world.

even making allowances for the biases and unreliability of such rankings, it does look like Singapore's planners (accused by some commentators of a jack-of-all-hubs strategy) have played their cards well.


China is huge and other markets that come closest (though not close) in size host more than one financial center. The US has NY-Chicago, the EU has London-Frankfurt.

Between HK and Shanghai, one will emerge to become Asia's financial one-stop shop (like NY/London) and the other will dominate a financial or geographic niche(s) (like Chicago/Frankfurt/Tokyo/Singapore).

Language and business culture favour HK, national politics favour Shanghai. The race is on but my bet is on HK - after all, political will was not enough for Tokyo.


echoing mr webster viewpoint above, I agree the main risk for HK is the policy risk. I think inferiority complex is probably too strong a phrase, I would rather say HKer tries to have it both ways. Trying to be both Chinese and Western. It's a gateway but at the same time charging high commission for its services. Multi-national corps will try to cut out this middleman if they can.
Meanwhile, as you rightly pointed out, the HK govt has not been able to deliver a united front to China. And I personally have doubts that what HK Govt proposed to China carries that much clout.

Noah Webster


Your sanguine observations concerning Hong Kong's future as a financial services centre in China are most certainly justified, provided there is free and fair competition between the two markets.

However, the day Beijing decides otherwise (for example, insisting all Chinese IPOs list in Shanghai, or pulling any number of other administrative levers at its disposal, both on the mainland and here in Hong Kong), then that is the day it shall be so.

Although I do not subscribe to this nefarious viewpoint, I believe it is this political calculation that causes the incessant hand-wringing to which you refer, and it is not without merit.

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