The opening two lines, and the last two lines of
verse seven, from Robert Burns' poem, "Man Was Made To Mourn" seemed
to lend themselves to an opening commentary for December, particularly with the
month-ending tragedy in Mumbai, and the continuing uncertainties prevailing
around the globe. Uncertainties which take on a myriad of shapes and colours, starting
with the terrorist attacks in India and Turkey, the Somali pirates and their
audacious raids on shipping to the continuing questions about what to do with
Iraq; Continuing economic uncertainties that have left no one immune, and which
seek an elusive "bottom" that seems so far away, even though we know
it is there, somewhere; Political confusion in Thailand and the
"wait" while the transition in the USA takes place; social uncertainties
– some in the wake of the economic crisis - about the impact of unemployment, injustice, aging
populations, HIV AIDS and genocide; Uncertainties over the impact of Global
Warming and the lack of action by Governments, people and businesses, of
pollution, of forests...the lists go on and on. And when all of these align -
what happens next? Is that where we are heading now? And what IS a
"perfect storm" anyway?
"Where to next?" is a question I get
asked frequently, but my crystal ball as a practicing banker (commercial!) was,
frankly, never better than that of anyone else. It seems unlikely, therefore,
that it will be sharper now. Naturally I have views, as do many others, but
theirs are probably more qualified and better articulated than mine. But then -
as we have learnt time and again - the future is never a linear extension of
the past or present. To be otherwise would make forecasting easy.
Okay, so I am in a less upbeat mood than usual! My
preference for optimism is a little less visible right now, and let's face it,
if you walk around with a smile on your face these days people either think
you're nuts, "on something", or an investment banker who has just
been promised a retention of his bonus! None of them terribly acceptable in
today's market. But, no, it does go deeper than that.
In January of this year I wrote a piece entitled, "What, Me Worry? - Yes, Me Worry!". At the time I was more concerned that we had not got to grips with the economic realities of a downturn in the financial markets, but here we are, nearly at the end of the year and there is little by way of "comfort" to suggest there have been improvements. In fact I would say the opposite. The economic woes have not been dealt with by Governments in a sufficiently robust or early manner, and have led to a heightening, rather than a reduction, of unease. The economic woes do have solutions, and some of them are really hard to carry out, but the medicine is available. In some cases the solutions could lead to social unrest. It’s a fact, and as a preference it should be avoided, but if it becomes a matter of survival – and the patient lives as a result, I would submit that the choice is obvious. We have been through it before - and survived (and then forgotten the lessons learnt, it seems!) But the recent spate of terrorist attacks, opportunistic in some ways perhaps, is fueling the general malaise. While weak and ineffective Governments seek to appease increasingly agitated hostile domestic audiences (voters), by thinking about protectionism and such like.
So, back to the question "where to next?" Some strong global leadership wouldn't go amiss, both on a financial and a political front, and neither would a dose of "perspective" on situations that are impacted more by rumour and supposition, and less by facts. But if we don't get it right - if the resolve is missing, we are heading for a long bleak 2009 – and perhaps beyond.
The Scottish Roots come forth!
'Weak & Ineffective' governments pandering to voters? But also coming up with self serving solutions, which voters are 'informed' are in their best interests regardless of contrary expressed opinion!
Strong global leadership certainly required! But do the disparate choices of Obama inspire inspiration? Too early to say! But certainly grounds for concern!
How appaulng if the USA were to lose its international clout - then there would be an 'elusive bottom'!
Hopefully not!
Best wishes, Bob
Posted by: Robert Chesney | 05 December 2008 at 00:23