Eldon-Online

When I'm Sixty Four....

Remember the old Beatles song?

                        … will you still need me, will you still feed me

                        When I’m sixty four?

Well ageing is at last getting to be a recognised phenomenon right up there with climate change, although if no changes are made in that latter department, none of us will be still alive at 64 in a few generations!

One could say, slightly stupidly I suppose, that ageing is a “fact of life”. (Well, it is!).  But whilst it is a fact that has been around for a while now, and there have been many papers and books written on the subject, it has only recently become a primary topic of regular discussion in the media particularly in relation to China. It was some years ago I first heard the phrase that China was going to get old before it got rich ... but then things went ominously quiet.

I first took a serious interest in the subject of ageing a little while before I became one of the relevant statistics. HSBC did some work with an engaging professor of gerontology on the subject of demographics, Dr. Ken Dychtwald, who has been one of the pioneers in studying the subject at length – putting a commercial interpretation on what it all meant for an organisation like the Bank and the territories in which it operated.

China then, as it does now, loomed large on the horizon back then but commentaries were more often aimed at the declining fertility in and the greying populations of, Europe and, in Asia particularly, of Japan.  Fast forward to today, and recent reports on ageing in China.

A society is officially ageing, according to the UN (and to the SCMP, where I lifted the definition from), when 10% of its population is 60 or over and 7% is 65 or older. In China, from the latest available figures, those numbers are 13.59% and 9.29% respectively – whereas Hong Kong’s comparative statistic for the over 60s is 17.14%. No wonder Donald Tsang was so pleased with the statistic he trotted out to justify the government claim that Hong Kong air quality was not so bad, proving that Hong Kong people were living longer – and probably living indoors! 

In China this longevity issue creates a real strain when one considers the effects of the one child policy, which is now really beginning to show through. Situations where one male child marries and has a child of his own, so he has a family of three to feed. But his elderly parents, and his wife's elderly parents are living longer and need supporting, so one person is supporting seven. No social security safety net, no government healthcare net, and unemployment in China is rising. 

But there are problems elsewhere too. Most of the time the older ones amongst us rejoice (as long as we are in reasonable health) that we have an opportunity to live longer, but the strain it is going to put on society as we move forward is going to be almost as immense as the problem in China. Older people will be capable of, and in many cases want to, work for longer, meaning a clogging up of senior job promotion opportunities for the younger generation. If, for whatever reason, people do stop working at around 60 or 65 - and they are going to live until 90 or beyond (I believe there is a statistic that suggests 80% of every female child born in a developed country in the year 2000 will make it to 100 years old), which government is going to sort out healthcare issues that arise - and how does a worker in that environment make sufficient money to put aside as a pension?

It really is a can of worms for Asia, particularly if you care to look at the other end of the demographic lifeline.

One the one hand, you can take some comfort from the young populations that exist in Asia. In India, one out of every three people is below the age of 15. Indonesia, Korea, Thailand and Vietnam also have relatively young populations. In other words they have a "youth bulge" - to use one of the ADB's more technical terms. A bulge that has the potential to stimulate economic growth in the short term and asset creation in the longer term. But the stimulation comes from jobs, and they may no longer be so readily available.

And let's add one more ingredient to this rather depressing scenario. Asia has too many men. They cannot find wives, and if they can neither do that nor find jobs, they might just find extreme nationalism instead.

Lessons? Let us get on with doing something serious, really serious, about climate change but let's also deal with another growing problem that has the potential to create further instability.

Meanwhile, on a lighter note, I'm going back to read some of the revised song titles I have just been sent that will resonate with those who remember the originals; songs that are now entitled "The First Time Ever I Forgot Your Face", "I Can't See Clearly Now" and "A Whiter Shade Of Hair" 

Quality - Losing The Plot.

There was a time when "quality" could be used as a differentiator between products, people and places. A time when a person's word alone was sufficient to seal a deal. A time when the same item produced in two different places could be compared and a quality established as to which was superior. A period when "quality of life" was tangible not only in the balances one achieved between work and play, but measured by the conditions under which one lived; social, educational, political and environmental.

Of course, quality means different things to different people so I would not attempt a universal definition. I merely set out above a number of factors that bring the word to life, for me. So what is in my mind? (Not a lot, some would say, but I digress!).

As time has passed we seem to have become more willing to compromise on quality in the interests of speed or, worryingly, just "keeping the peace". Allowing standards to drop, for example, in written language. How I used to hate having my business letters reviewed by a third party before they were despatched - but it taught me to avoid ambiguity in my writing. Today we seem perfectly happy to receive letters that are not only written poorly in terms of grammar, but in a shorthand that leads to weird interpretation. I recall a number of years ago when a "circulation file" of already despatched letters came across my desk in another country, all signed by a Western executive. The letters were, frankly, awful and I went through them with a red pen, raising the hackles of the executive concerned who excused his work by saying that the typists were incompetent, would never change, and it wasn't that important anyway. My view was this was a "face" of the Bank, and it mattered to me. Point is - you do not have to give in to sub-standard work in the interests of either expediency or laziness.

Quality of air, at least in Hong Kong, is another issue where not being willing to address a problem head-on is creating present and future difficulties for the City. Whereas we are told by Government that overall air quality has improved in the last few years, try telling that to the pedestrians on Hong Kong Kong Island last week where roadside stations were registering pollution readings in excess of 160 - against an index that suggests at a pollution level of 100, people with heart and respiratory problems need to be extra careful. Air quality in Hong Kong over the last 30 years, probably like other cities, has declined. But I would argue that Hong Kong has worsened faster than most. Initially blamed on factories polluting the air across the border in Shenzhen (largely owned by Hong Kong businesses!), many of which have now moved or closed. Today is a holiday in Hong Kong, as a result of which I can see Kowloon albeit hazily from my window. Not something I was able to do last week from my office - which is nearer to Kowloon. This is because there is not so much traffic on the road today, or cars sitting with idling engines (not allowed, but which happens so that car owners can get into air-conditioned comfort). But it is estimated that more than half of Hong Kong's pollution is locally created - yet we have a Government that seems powerless to institute the changes necessary. This is not a new debate. In a speech I made in November 2006 I pointed to warnings that had been carried out 20 years earlier about the potential worsening of air quality in Hong Kong. 

Quality of leadership is a subject on the lips of many today. Not necessarily from those who believe they could lead better, but those who are anxious to be well led. It doesn't matter where you look really - and I guess there are some potential bright spots but Britain wouldn't appear to be one of them. The BBC last week allowed the leader of the British National Party, a man described by a former Archbishop of Canterbury as a "squalid racist",  to appear on television. The BNP's earlier manifestos called for the immediate deportation of 2 million non-whites from Britain, and the outlawing of mixed race marriages. They have now been forced by law to agree to allow anyone to join the BNP who wants to, and it will be interesting to see how this works in practice. The airing of the show was seen by some as a victory for openness and freedom of speech, but the implications worried me. An opinion poll carried out the following day indicated that 22% of people polled would consider voting for the BNP in an election. This was dramatically up from a rating of around 0.7% some months earlier. But they are not the only extreme right wing group in the world. Protectionism is more likely to raise its head in the face of job losses. Fast growing and young populations in some poorer economies will seek a better life - anywhere they can. As a result of which such nationalistic groups are likely to rise in number and popularity. It is not a prospect I relish.

So where does all this take us ... because the list can go on?

If we forsake "quality" because of some forceful bullies who operate in the financial, business, political and social world, and therefore abandon many of our standards, we will continue to decline. This will ultimately bring us down to the level of the lowest common denominator, inhaling air we can chew rather than breathe, and leaving no legacy worth having to our children's children.

Tall Poppy Syndrome

If you have started to read this in the hope that it is something to do with creating genetically modified flowers that provide a greater volume of a well known narcotic - STOP!!

I am instead referring to a term used, particularly in Australia it seems, which basically means bringing someone down to earth. Now, put up your hand if you were genuinely shocked by the elimination of Chicago in the first round of voting to select the host venue for the 2016 Olympics. Okay, my hand is down - but I must say I was a little surprised at that particular turn of events even though I didn't think Chicago would win. (And to those people who still think it, I am not anti American!).

But think about  it. The world's press headlines in the run up to the vote all trumpeted the fact that President Obama and the First Lady were going to Denmark to "bring the Olympics back to Chicago". Don't blame me for the headlines, I don't write them! They went on to say - ".. if the Games are not awarded to America this could prove financially damaging to the Olympic movement". The USA is the largest financial contributor to the Games. Didn't anyone think that this sort of news reporting might get right up people's noses? (get up someone's nose: Informal - to annoy someone).

You can argue that other heads of state, Kings, Presidents were also present in Copenhagen, and they made impassioned speeches on behalf of their country, so what was the difference between them being there and the US President? Simply the manner of his arrival and the newspaper headlines that accompanied it. The message received by others - and I have been asking a lot of people in different countries - (I have been in four in the last 7 days; five if you count Hong Kong), is that the news accompanying the President indicated he was going to walk in and take the prize. I don't blame the President. His heart was clearly where it should have been, but the timing was awful.

The Tall Poppy cutters obviously thought so too!

I feel for the cities that lost the vote. So much work and effort goes into the preparation of any bid but most people seem to think that it is the turn of Latin America anyway. The chosen city of Rio de Janeiro is a beautiful place, although it has a patchy history, a questionable security record and some difficult challenges ahead. They have something to prove in being awarded this prestigious event, and I am sure they will rise to it.

To my Brasilian friends Felicitações e boa sorte. See you there!!

P R and C ... and Sixty

P, R and C - three seemingly random letters from the alphabet but which, put together as I write this week, have some interesting meanings.

In the first instance, PRC is of course the key set of initials leading people in many parts of the world to focus on the celebrations in China, as the People's Republic celebrates its 60th Anniversary. A number of friends are already in Beijing waiting for 1 October, to be present and to experience the atmosphere - although I suspect the visuals may actually be better experienced on the television. Wonder if the celebrations will be shown in Dubai, where I am headed?

Of course, feelings about the whole event - the cost, the scale, the symbolism and the multiple messages it sends - are already subject to much scrutiny and interpretation. I have not met anyone yet who is  ambivalent about it, from university professors to taxi drivers and hairdressers (okay, barber in my case!), from Americans to Chinese, Australians and Africans - everyone it seems. From the overly optimistic to the prejudicially pessimistic. And the media for once is very mixed; some actually with glowing positive reports as to what all this means for the future - "balanced" by the downright scary.

China has spent lavishly on a couple of events in the last few years, what with the Olympics and now this parade. And we will never know the exact amounts. But when was the last occasion they spent like this? Maybe 20 years ago when they celebrated their 40th? Let’s remember that China operates its calendar under a sexagenary cycle, meaning that 60 is a particularly important milestone as calendars go. Yes some (or all) of that money could have been used for other purposes and yes, China is not perfect in so many ways. But I would argue it has improved dramatically certainly in the last 30 and is continuing to do so. It is probably one of the only economies in the world today that has some growth – having avoided some of the excesses suffered by its so called “developed” teachers and advisers. Why not have a party, and lighten up a little?

It is always interesting to me that people are quick to be critical of China, who take some pride in their nationalism. Is it possible that the Americans are any less nationalistic, or the Thais or the Singaporeans? As I wrote earlier, China Is not perfect. Its government does things that interfere with civil liberties but you cannot tell me that such issues are not present in the countries mentioned above. Oh, and they all have another thing in common - the death penalty. What a civilized world in which we live!

China is celebrating 60 years in a way they know best. It's a country that has 1.3bn people - of course there's going to be a cast of thousands. At least people can take a little ownership and say that they were a part of it.

Whether it suits us or not, we have to get used to the idea that China is a part of the world in which we live, and will be around for many more lifetimes. Perhaps the time will come when the world is going to need China's help somehow, and they'll have every right to turn around and say - why should we? But they won't, because that's not how they play their game.

Returning to the alphabet, where I started, not only is PRC in the news this week, but for me P and R are also in the news – and just happens to involve C too. Lost?

Public Relations are an important part of our world today. It doesn’t matter if you are a Fortune 500 company, or an individual – PR is all around you.

The announcements made by HSBC at the end of last week concerning the relocation of the Group Chief Executive to Hong Kong were a real PR coup in my opinion. Coming just one week before the 60^th Anniversary, the timing was perfect. The return home, in many ways, provides a ringing endorsement that Asia in general and China in particular is seriously important as far as the economic future of the world is concerned.

I have received many requests from journalists seeking my opinion on the move and on a number of the ramifications surrounding the decisions but I think I had better keep them to myself, other than to say, “Welcome home”!

And before I leave PR. I hope you noticed the announcement last week that the China Investment Corporation (CIC) has invested a substantial sum of money into Noble. That, coming on the back of a rating agency upgrade, saw a lot of positive PR for a company with which I am happy to be associated. 

Finally, I had to smile at a smart (paraphrased) response from the eloquently elegant Madam Fu Ying, Chinese Ambassador to the United Kingdom that I saw on a news channel yesterday who, when asked by a British reporter whether the next 60 years might see a change in China, leading to giving people the vote said, “You mean, copy the way you do things?” Touché Madam. 

All in all, a pretty good week for P, R and C – and happy birthday to a Sixty Year Old from an Over Sixty!

Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent ...

For the followers of Shakespearean quotations, the title is a well-known line from Richard III Act 1, Scene 1 - deliberately incomplete (and out of season!).

 Judging by some recent comments that have drifted back to me, there are some out there who seem to think I Blog because I can't "let go" and still have a hankering to be in the limelight. For them, I have information. I Blog because I enjoy it, because there are apparently some folk who find it reasonably informative and at times entertaining, and because I have the freedom to say what I like. If I am in the news at all these days it is because I have been asked to be there - I have not sought it. And I am happy with that thank you. So, with that little bit of discontent off my chest - to the subject(s) on my mind at present.

The quotation as used in the title is often recited in its above incomplete form to indicate negative thoughts or emotions, but to appreciate the actual meaning of the words used by Shakespeare you have to read the whole stanza:

 Now is the winter of our discontent

Made glorious summer by this son of York;

And all the clouds that low'r'd upon our house

In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.

 In other words far from being miserable Richard, the future King, is actually happily welcoming a change in his fortunes following the installation of his brother Edward IV on the throne; they were both sons of the Duke of York. A gloomy period has, for him, been turned into summer.

So, am I saying that the gloomy predictions I was making earlier have now gone away, turned the corner perhaps, and that all is well with the world? Well ..... actually, no!

It is true that many parts of the world are reporting encouraging economic figures. Japan, France, Germany, Hong Kong all saying they have come out of, or staved off recession and let's be fair, that of itself is an achievement. And after the real winter of discontent we faced globally it is a much more glorious summer than many might have expected - if you still have a job, that is!!

The economists though, remain cautious or undecided and there seem to be few willing to predict that we are back to normal (whatever that is) - with most hedging their bets on the "well, the worst seems to be over, and some results are encouraging, but we've got a couple of years to go yet" scenario. And I am firmly with the "switherers". Honestly, nothing would give me greater pleasure than to be able to put my hand on my heart and say "Yes, I think we have come through this okay, under the circumstances, and there will be no more surprises" - but I cannot. I remain concerned, and will continue to be so until I see the job market improving, credit card debt being reduced, shareholder expectations being tempered, banks getting out from under the large gorilla of bad debts sitting on their backs and a return to a properly functioning market economy unhindered by politicians.

And while many of us live our lives and judge the world through the financial presses, just take a look at the world in which we are living.

The Middle East troubles continue. The war in Afghanistan (in which there are likely to be few winners) where the loss of life amongst the coalition forces (British Forces in particular) recently seems to have escalated, the difficulty with holding elections in that country, newer and bigger bombs in Baghdad, fraudulent elections in Iran ... the list goes on. It includes the potential release of the Lockerbie bomber perhaps today, even, on humane grounds because he wants to spend the last few weeks of his life with his loved ones. Not something that went through his mind when he was involved (even if he was not the actual bomber) in blowing up the Pan Am plane that was taking people back to see their own loved ones in America.

[I actually worry that the decision by the authorities in Scotland to release the man has something to do with taking exception to the protests being raised by US Secretary of State Clinton, and others - on a "don't tell us what to do" basis. I hope I am wrong].

Politically in Europe we have a sick British Government where, it seems, the Prime Minister is not allowed to govern while he is on holiday in Britain but it's okay for one of his colleagues to run the country from Corfu on his Blackberry. And as for the Italians - just what are they going to do with their philandering Prime Minister? Okay, private lives are just that - private, but Mr. Berlusconi's private life is very public and must bring into question just how much gravitas he brings to Government.

In America they are struggling with health care reform, having decided that they want something "uniquely American" to quote President Obama who meanwhile decides to ridicule the British NHS - not a perfect system by any means, but not the disaster it has been painted.

So, while we enjoy our "glorious summer", remember that winter is not too far around the corner (yes, I know, I am talking about the Northern Hemisphere - but that's where the main trouble spots seem to be). And perhaps, just perhaps, we might be back to seeing headlines that echo the opening line of Richard III - without the follow on.

 

With All Due Humility, A Job's A Job...

The height of humiliation, according to the South China Morning Post, is to work as a domestic helper. Try telling that to the thousands of Filipinas in Hong Kong and around the world, many with university degrees they can't put to good use. But, it seems, taking a job as a housekeeper is too embarrassing in China.

Let me tell you a true story. The only two points of significant difference between this story and the one in the newspaper are that firstly the subject (let's call her Mary) did not have a University degree, and secondly her life commenced many years ago.

Mary was born in one of the toughest parts of Glasgow, one of six children. Her Father, she said, was a good man because he always made sure his children had something to wear on their feet when they went to school, unlike many of the other children around them. The soles of the shoes were changed regularly, when there was a new piece of cardboard available. Mary was a bright child. Never out of the top two or three at school and where her worst subject was geography where she "only" got marks in the 70 and 80 percent levels. This, despite receiving punishment (usually the strap) almost every day for being late in the classroom. It was only some years later her teacher found out that Mary was late because she had to take her younger sister to school first, and the younger one started later than Mary. But, said Mary, she didn't want to go around making excuses. 

When she was 14 years old Mary had to stop school because the family needed her to work to earn money, so she entered domestic service as a housekeeper.

Ultimately the second world war intervened, and Mary joined the army where, due to her skill and intelligence, she rapidly rose through the ranks and became a gunnery sergeant, receiving high commendations and top marks wherever she went. As the war was coming to a close Mary married another sergeant - a commando who she had met when he was doing some training. Sadly he died just before the war ended leaving Mary a widow with a child on the way.

To cut what could be a very long story into a manageable tale, Mary found work as a cook/housekeeper to a family who were prepared to take her on with a baby. The job, managing an extremely large house was, to say the least, demanding. The employers were reasonable, but they entertained large numbers frequently and it was not uncommon for Mary to be up at 6 in the morning and not be in bed until 11 at night having had a full day cleaning and cooking. She was never known to complain - accepting (rightly or wrongly) that you play with the deck you are dealt. You take the opportunities when they arise, but you get on with life.

Mary was involved with the same family, parents and children, until at the age of 72 she decided she should slow down and stop full time work. Throughout her working life she never asked for an increase in pay - preferring instead to rely on the provision of a roof over her head and the pension she received from the army for the loss of her husband, as well as by then an old age pension.

Her intelligence never wavered. She reached the London finals of The Times crossword puzzle in her 70s, but declined to attend them because she did not want to be in any form of public eye, or the pressure that went with it.

Her humility, her grounding, her loyalty and her total lack of selfishness have provided for others a base from which to work. But humiliation for working as a domestic helper?? It would not have crossed her mind. A job, she would say, is a job - and if you can do something with the few opportunities you can find in life, then grasp them.

Happily, Mary today is in her 90th year and as sharp and as fiercely independent as ever. She lives comfortably and quietly, but of the headline in the newspaper today she would probably have a few choice things to say about "too high expectations", and to stop whining - be happy you even have a job, as there are many who don't.

I shall speak about it to "Mary" when I call her tonight - although I will call her Mum!

    

Blame It On Education!

Amidst all the doom and gloom-laced newspaper headlines foretelling the end of the world, isn't it "refreshing" to discover that there are some people who really don't worry about the current state of affairs? Take the story that broke at the end of last week of the 13 year old British boy who has become a father after having had sex with a 15 year old girl. When asked what he would do to support the baby financially he said "what does financially mean"? 

Come on, at least he's honest. It would surely not be too far fetched to suggest there are quite a few people out in the world today who are considerably older, apparently better educated - if length of time at it is any measure - and in receipt of huge dollops of money regularly (unlike our young father who "occasionally gets £10 pocket money" from his dad!), of whom it might be said were similarly confused by the meaning of the word "financially".

But it's the fatherhood rather than the financials I am considering here, in addition to wondering out loud whether there will be any legal action as a result of underage sex!

 Of course the "blame-game" has already started. This is clearly the fault of promoting sex education in schools, say some critics. If you didn't teach them about these things, the children wouldn't have an urge to go off and try it for themselves, they say. (Yeh, right!). Other "experts"  wade in and say that you must have sex education in schools. Presumably because they remember their own uneducated exploratory fumblings in the corner of a long forgotten school yard, which they tried to relate to some story their parents told them about birds and bees. The necessity for this type of education, they continue, is because parents no longer seem to take this responsibility on, preferring to leave it to the schools. 

And in relation to that last point, it seems that no criticism on this child's fatherhood has been levelled at the parents. So, whichever camp you are in with regard to sex education/no sex education in schools, the fundamental point must be the fact that parents are now failing in their own basic responsibilities towards their children. They are the ones who should be doing the educating, not leaving it to the schools and then blaming them when something goes wrong.

Don't blame it on education.

(As a brief aside, on sex education, if you are ever in Bangkok have a meal at "Cabbages and Condoms", you won't be sorry, for a number of good reasons). 

Now, while I am on the subject of education, and moving from Britain to Asia, it appears that Hong Kong is playing host to the daughter of one of the worlds most reviled "leaders". Bona Mugabe has apparently been studying under an assumed name at the University of Hong Kong since the autumn and I am partly - or perhaps I should say minutely - sympathetic to the views of the University spokesman who said we should put education above politics. There is now some doubt about exactly which establishment she has been at, or is intending to attend, but no smoke without fire! She must have been/be around here somewhere!!

Maybe by exposing Miss Mugabe to the feelings of the entire world about her father, she will experience some sort of remorse and work towards making a difference. But, sadly, I suspect not.

It is not Miss Mugabe who has snatched the headlines, however, but the reports of her mother allegedly assaulting a Sunday Times photographer in January, two journalists reportedly being threatened by guards in Hong Kong last week, and reports of a purchase by the Mugabes of a US$5.8m home in Hong Kong.

And in case you have forgotten, Zimbabwe is currently facing annual inflation of 231m%, and has just issued a $100 trillion banknote (worth US$33 - or it was at the time the note was issued!!).

So, back to education - which is where we came in. There have been calls for the Hong Kong Government to remove any approval for Bona Mugabe to study in Hong Kong. Why should we provide "cover" for a member of a corrupt family who have been banned from many other countries? We, wisely in my view, refused entry to the paedophile Gary Glitter, on the grounds of undesirability yet we seem willing so far to turn a blind eye in this case.

Likewise, shouldn't the Government be considering whether the Mugabe money (where did it come from - don't we have anti money laundering requirements here any more?) is in fact welcome? The people of Zimbabwe may find a better use for USD5.8m, and whereas they may not be allowed to raise questions, we can. I would suggest that the Government listen very carefully to the call by the people from around the world who may find our present "acceptance" of the situation to be - well - uneducated!

Vote for Hong Kong

It's election time in the USA. It is where I am right now and as I write it is still Tuesday so it ain't over. Personally I shall be pleased when it is. Not because the outcome is not important, it is, but because of the months and months it seems to have been assaulting our ears in Hong Kong and elsewhere - and the money the process costs in America. Frankly I prefer the British electoral system. Call an election, keep the period for electioneering short and restrict the amount of money it costs.  (Similar to the USA, though, it still doesn't guarantee we get the right person at the top!)

So with elections being topical I started to think, as I often do, about Hong Kong. Not from a political leadership perspective, but from the point of view of Hong Kong's position in the world, in Asia and in China - particularly in the post "American Crisis" era.

 Historically Hong Kong has thrived on crisis; political or economic. It was done by a mixture of entrepreneurial and practical business people with common sense, a facilitative civil service and a hard working labour force. 

 What's changed? 

 Well not a lot when you think about it. The entrepreneurs are still there, university-educated perhaps but with less of the raw gut instinct of their fathers. The civil service is still there and has the ability to perform as before, even if it does not always show the inclination to do so (due partly to the presence and pressure of a less business savvy and more banana-driven and hirsute legislature), and the workforce still seems to be largely willing to perform as hard as before. So although we, along with everyone else, who has been caught up in the "American Crisis”, have some issues, we've nothing to be concerned about long term, right?

Well, maybe we'll be lucky, but this is no time for complacency and it is pleasing to know that at least some in the business community are looking seriously at the subject. Mind you, looking, debating and agreeing are only a part of the sum; action is harder.

 I was delighted to be asked recently to give my views to a group of business people. Delighted because at this stage of career I am pleased to be asked my opinion about something - well just about anything actually.

 I used a couple of stories to illustrate the points I was making but my main thoughts from the first story, in brief, looked at:

 - the world over the next 30 years; a more interconnected, interdependent and international world. A world in which Hong Kong, despite the ties with China and the obvious synergies, must remain international in focus unless we want to become just another city in China - and a small one at that.

- whether we need to ask ourselves some basic but sensitive questions. For example have we become all too comfortable in relying largely on China? Do we realise there are markets in directions other than north? 

- Simply put, Hong Kong is where it is today because of our international focus. Because this is a city where people from different places can do business together. If we want to remain relevant to China, and the world, our internationalism cannot be left behind - unless we want to be left behind.

 In terms of the second story, the salient point was that as Hong Kong moves forward we have to increase our appeal. In the comments above, I talked about our interconnected world. In such a scenario people we need in Hong Kong will only be attracted here if our city offers them and/or their families the best lifestyle. This means being honest with ourselves. Are we sometime soon going to go beyond paying lip service to cleaning up our environment or do we expect to be able to do as little in the next 30 years as the last 30 and still have a city worth living in? Simply put, if Hong Kong hopes to compete going forward, it must be a desirable destination for both business and leisure.

 Lastly I made a few points about aggression; being aggressive in defending our turf and our reputation. There is a re-balancing taking place in world economies. We are becoming increasingly volatile in the global economy - a volatility that is being partly driven by flows of information and misinformation. But in this environment we need to consider what we must do to stay ahead of the competition. 

Once again, these trends raise some sensitive but basic questions for Hong Kong. Questions about how to best fend off the competition, to make sure we stay ahead of ALL those cities in Asia that want what Hong Kong already has? But also questions about dealing with negative perceptions transparently and promptly and aggressively protect Hong Kong's regulatory reputation.

So, a few thoughts on this Election Day but for me - and I hope for those of you who have an interest in your future, when you have an opportunity - Vote for Hong Kong.

Obituary - Farewell to Common Sense

Some time ago a friend forwarded to me an obituary. Not his in anticipation nor, happily, mine. I filed it away because I knew it would come in useful one day - as it had clearly been useful before. An obituary, lamenting the passing away of common sense. I suggest you read it by clicking on the link before you read on.

If the structured finance crisis was not already enough to demonstrate the toxicity that a mixture of greed and insanity can bring, then surely we learnt the lesson that paying out millions of dollars in compensation to Chief Executives of institutions that had been brought to their knees was not morally acceptable; particularly to the people in those same companies who had lost their jobs. Didn't we?

Okay, so the amounts are now lower, but the headlines scream as loudly. Today's UK Daily Telegraph newspaper greeted its readers with the headline "Failed bank chief is £2m winner". This, of course, relating to the ousted head of HBOS, who has presided over the failure of a bank where, at the time of the forthcoming merger with Lloyds might see a loss of upto 40,000 jobs, according to some estimates (a little overdone, in my view). Oh - and he gets to keep a job in the new organisation!

In the meantime, across the pond, incredulity remains that a company like Lehman has gone, the folk at Bear Stearns who were rescued thank their lucky stars for achieving "first-loser" advantage, AIG were happy that they were too big to fail (insurers to the Government perhaps?), while toilet paper sellers are still doing a roaring trade around the offices of the likes of Morgan Stanley, Washington Mutual and Wachovia Bank. Everywhere across the globe, speculation is rife about the future - and now the US Government has acted to help shore up the world economies by chucking a couple of hundred billion US dollars at it!

Well, at least the markets have reacted positively today in response to this (rather late) gesture - but the British Government, in case they are uncharitably feeling a sense of schadenfreude,  can take the smile off their faces if they think they have acted expeditiously and smartly; think Northern Rock first of all, and then heed the words of an adviser to Hong Kong's Monetary Authority and to the Bank of England (now former adviser), Sir Charles Goodhart, whose view was that HBOS might have survived if the Government had acted more quickly. Back on the lap of poor old Gordon Brown - blamed again. It seems, they say, that if you meet him, make sure he doesn't wish you good luck!

But is all of this enough? Despite the market rally, have we now bottomed out in the west or is it just a temporary "happy blip" to make us feel better over the weekend? To be followed by the stark reality that on Monday morning we will still not have created any more jobs, an increasing number of people will realise they can no longer afford the rent on their swanky apartments, and the credit card repayments will continue to come under pressure.

No I do not think the world is coming to an end in financial terms, and we will muddle through eventually, but common sense not only suggests we should not live beyond our financial means. It also means that beyond finance, we should not condone (by turning a blind eye) the farce that appears to be Zimbabwe and other similar situations; that hiding behind religion - whichever one - is not an excuse for terrorism, and that many other of todays idiocies (see next blog;  "Non-Compete Clause") could be addressed appropriately by a strong dose of common sense.

Let's hope there is a cure for the apparently deceased.

River Deep, Mountain High - The "Service" Puzzle

What is it about companies that name themselves after huge natural geographic features like Amazon and Everest? Even the about to be nationalised Northern Rock might fall into the same category. Large organisations that build a decent reputation and then let it fade. A victim of success, perhaps, followed by a period of masterfully executed "hand sitting" on past glories. Or is it just a continuing acceptance of lower standards.

I regaled readers of this blog on 17 September with a string of "mishaps" and lack of communication by Amazon in "Up the Amazon (.com) Without a Paddle". To their credit, in January this year after a direct appeal to Chairman Jeff Bezos and another letter to the legal department, I received a reasonably terse note stating that they had removed the reviews to which I was objecting. It was as if they were saying, "If we say sorry, he might take us to court and sue us because we have admitted to identity theft". Despite my notes in writing that this was not what I wanted to do. Such is the level of concern today over litigation. The point is, it took over 6 months and much time-wasting to get a resolution to something that, I consider, would take rational, empowered people a month to decide upon. Anyway thank you, Amazon.com. Enough. Matter closed.

But no sooner have we navigated the Amazon, when up ahead of us looms Everest.

I honestly am not the complaining type, as a rule, but the parallels between Amazon and Everest incidents are scary. Forget the preamble about how we got into a contract with this "home improver". We did, based on a perception of product quality - and ignoring the advice of others. And that was when the trouble started. Letters from the company, resulting in emails by me to the author of the letters - totally ignored. In desperation, a letter to the Managing Director, which, unlike Amazon was actually responded to by a "Customer Relations Co-ordinator". Dates for commencement of the contract agreed; 9 days to complete the work. The workers didn't seem to turn up on nice days, and on bad weather days said it was too wet to work outside. Complaints telephoned in were - "noted". Scaffolding outside the house - creating an open invitation for aspiring burglars. More complaints, more excuses and, joy, an on-site meeting - some 20 days after the commencement of the contract. Promises that a couple of more days work would complete the project - but by now the house was going to be empty - and the scaffolding was still up - even more incentive for sharp-eyed burglars (as if they needed any!). After a further 16 days - during which time no workers came, the scaffolding still up, - and the burglars decided they were free and clear. They used the thoughtfully provided scaffolding, presumably disguised as workers if necessary, forced a window and then had enough leisure time to dismantle the alarm system and place it neatly on the floor. They then opened another window from inside the house, to provide another getaway.

Can you imagine what Everest has done since by way of response? If you said nothing, you are pretty close to the mark. The promised telephone call back? - not yet received. The faxed letter to the Managing Director? unanswered - not even by the Customer Relations Co-ordinator, who wrote somewhat hopefully in September 2007 "...we take our commitment to customer care very seriously". (And by the way, a copy of the letter is on its way by registered post so someone will have to sign for it!)

Oh well, they said that the Chinese Year of the Rat was not good for Roosters or Horses! And if the burglars happen to discover this blog, why the heck couldn't you have taken the ancient Volvo?

The rant? It all comes back to service standards and certainly to company leadership. We should be more serious about who we put in charge of companies, any company - and if there is a service provider out there named after another fabulous natural geographical phenomenon - you're not getting any business from me! It's too risky.