Thanksgiving Week, and not a good one for turkeys in the USA. But if you think the rest of the Blog is going to be about a member of the genus Maleagris, sorry - think again.
I have in mind a somewhat luckier Turkey; as depicted below:
A country of almost 75 million people, predominantly of the Muslim faith but with no official religion - in other words a secular state. And if it can stay that way, it will likely do well.
A country which has been somewhat schizophrenic in its outlook - Janus-like, facing as it does in both geographic directions, never sure whether it was a part of Europe or the Middle East. And yet with strong connections even to China where the Uigers exist as a Turkic minority race.
A country with a strong desire to join the European Union, although I suspect right now it must be breathing a huge sigh of relief that it had been unsuccessful. But now a country with some desires and designs of its own.
For many years Turkey has been viewed as somewhat chaotic. Out of touch. An occasional holiday destination. A haven for terrorists. A producer of cheap goods (and not good quality) but at least one that could cope with lower volumes and orders rather than having to compete with the monster factories established in China, for example, who could only operate profitably on large volume orders.
But the last decade has been changing all that. Political stability. Better education, leading to a more skilled workforce. A successful economy. A serious tourist destination - and now Turkey sitting as it does on the outer edges of the Arab Spring, and looking both East and West, is being considered as a sea of stability and a conduit through which businesses and people can safely trade, East to West and vice versa. A country with aspirations and a growing belief in its ability to succeed.
A detour. I have just been in both Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The contrast today between those two countries is striking.
The Saudi heads of Saudi businesses were sharp, bright-eyed, intellectual, progressive businessmen. No reliance on Government handouts and a feeling that they didn't have to work too hard, that might have been the impression of them in earlier years. In a word they are impressive. If the country as a whole was able to move faster down the reformist line they have travelled so far, the global business world would be the better for it (and so, I believe would the country).
Egypt as you might expect given the turmoil in the country, and I have to confess I was only in Cairo, was looking depressed. Of five business people questioned in depth, one was extremely bullish about the country, two were depressingly negative, the fourth was slipping down the "happy" scale the more he talked and the fifth had a "party" line about him. The verbal language was mutedly positive, the body language decidedly defeated. A colleague who had a number of other meetings found no-one positive about the country. The roads are jammed as police seem to leave drivers to sort themselves out. It appeared in some places the general public were actually directing the traffic. It is sad to see, but the longer the country drifts, the greater difficulty there will be in restoring order. It is like an illness where a cure is harder to find the longer the disease has been allowed to continue untreated.
But there was one striking common feature about the discussions in both countries. Turkey.
A similarity of opinion from people that we spoke to who agreed that Turkey was the future place to do business. And I have tested it out here in Hong Kong where the level of serious interest in Turkey is also growing.
Turkey probably cannot ignore the West - 55% of its exports head for Europe at present, but that's a market where demand is going to fall at least in the short term. It is a stable, democratic state with strong Middle Eastern roots, and I suspect investors will be closely looking at what more they can do in Turkey. And the demographics of certain parts of Asia, like those of Turkey are similar where half the Turkish population is around 28 years or under.
If you had to put a country on your watch list for your future business, one would have to ask "who's for Turkey?" Unless they do something incredibly insane - I am!
How very interesting! Rather surprising to most people! Which, I suspect might be an understatement! But will it be a 'Wild Turkey' or a 'Domestic Turkey' (from the genus meliagris) - & how long will the 'disambiguation' take? If history is a guide, perhaps this may be a long shot!? Perhaps the Saudi influence of business experience may tip the scale? Essential, of course, must be that reliable political stability, clearly now distinctly lacking in the EU zone! As you imply, Turkey had a lucky escape!
Posted by: Robert | 22 November 2011 at 03:32 AM