Eldon-Online

When The Past Comes Back To Haunt You - Pictorially

A great friend and collaborator on many of the things I do these days, especially on the speaking circuit, knowing that I was in Dubai and the UAE in the 1960s and 70s, happened to come across some old photographs on the internet recently of Dubai in that period of time. They really brought back some memories, especially when you look at the place today. Days of few roads. Actually no roads in many places. Electricity was intermitment - which meant so was the air conditioning. But it was fun, it was pioneering, and as a relatively young man there were few responsibilities.

And for leisure?  A game of rugby. Played on sand. Not the nice beach stuff, but rough old desert sand. You wore elasticated knee bandages in the hope that they would minimise the sand burns that were inevitable - and which had generally just about healed by the time the next game came along. Helped in the healing process by sitting for a long time in a hot bath full of an antiseptic like Dettol. Playing the game on that surface did make you "moderate" your game to some degree - although the picture I am about to inflict on you might suggest that the idea was actually just to stand around wondering what the heck was going to happen next - if anything!

Anyway, I digress. In amongst the collection of rugby photographs was one actually taken from a local Dubai newspaper in 1973. It showed the Dubai Exiles (in white and black), a Club I had helped to found in 1969 in full (?) flow against an opposing team - from Bahrain if I recall correctly.

And there, unknown to the sender of the link was a face I recognised. Somewhat younger than now and with considerably more hair - most of it down the side of his face! Centre stage, ball in hands, the author of this Blog!

Scary. Those were the days I guess - but you know what? I would do it all over again!!

The ABC of Finance

Now, you may have landed up in this Blog by accident because you were searching Google for something learned or maybe educational, on finance. Perhaps you wanted a forum to exchange views with finance industry participants. Or you may just be curious about the title. Whatever it is, read on. By the time you have discovered it is not exactly what you were looking for, you will have finished it anyway!

But first to the "A". A happy letter - it starts the alphabet, but is now a letter feared in Europe because it is the starting letter of that other "A" word - Austerity. A concept that some European leaders (not that Greece seems to have found a leader yet, following their elections), seem to regard as a recipe for disaster. A concept that politicians from the left seem to find has a particular appeal for their voters, especially those in the "sunshine belt" of the Mediterranean . But I bet those same politicians don't run their homes the same way they want to run their economies. If they want groceries, heating, clothing - they work out what they can afford, and spend within their limits - or close to them. And if times get tough, they cut back on various things. That is austerity, so I wonder which bit of Austerity they don't understand.

They want growth, but they need money to grow and they don't have it. Where does it come from then - the printing presses? Yes, up to a point but then we all know what happens to countries that just print money - eventually it all catches up with them and they enter a period of depression. Worse, much worse, I would suggest than a period of austerity. Oh yes, and another thing, who suffers the most - who has to pay it all back eventually? The children, and their children and inevitably, even their children. What great parents you all turn out to be.You voted for yourselves a comfortable life without having created the means to pay for it but, just like your household bills, they have to be paid eventually.

Sure, some people get it. While M. Hollande may have been victorious, yet the margin was not as large as it could have been, and he only received a little over half the votes which doesn't suggest a landslide, because almost the other half didn't want him! But look at the poll results for the far left. A huge success for them.That should worry Europe!

And has Europe given up worrying about Greece? I saw today that the leader of their far left says Europe would not dare throw Greece out of the Euro. Really? Alexis Tsipras might regret such a bold statement. But once again, did you notice in Greece the rise in popularity of a neo-Nazi party in the polls. Be wary Europe. It does not look good from where I am sitting.

"B" in the Blog title is for Bankers and Brides. Actually, I was originally only going to talk about brides under "B" - and at a safe distance from my daughter who could suffer sense of humour failure if I write this incorrectly, but it was in relation to austerity! My extremely talented and beautiful daughter (what do you mean I'm biased - well of course I am - but she is!), is about to get married - in a couple of months actually. Made a wise choice - Scottish accountant; they don't come much more careful than that - (but good luck son)! I was merely going to say that for weddings, austerity is not a word on the lips of many! But it's worth it - and I am NOT spending more than I saved for the day!

But then my thoughts on brides got neatly hijacked by Mr Dimon and his J P Morgan Chase colleagues, with yet another example of the excesses that continue to give banks and bankers a bad name, reinforcing the view that the profession is run by a bunch of banksters.

One of the greatest critics of new regulations, claiming they stifle business, Mr. Dimon has quickly been "up front" in saying that they got it badly wrong. USD2bn wrong at the last published count, (which is already a lot) although there were some rumours on the street I hang out on that the amount was actually quite a bit higher. Nice of Mr. Dimon though to be so refreshingly honest, and for senior people in his firm to accept responsibility and leave already. But in an honourable house, the buck stops with the boss who should take full responsibility. But then perhaps like the now standard "Murdoch defense", Mr. Dimon was not aware of what was going on!

And as for "C", well yes, China. For the second time in a month I find myself in the Middle East at the request of people there, to go and talk about China. Talk about a region which has strong historical links with the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Links that were put on the back burner during the last couple of hundred years with the rise (and subsequent decline) of British naval and trading dominance, the subsequent rise generally of the West, and then the growth of nationalism in China which effectively closed off the country for decades. The Middle East has the oil and gas and the money. China has money and a work force for hire. Both want to invest, but the trade links are nothing new. It is just a restoration of an old pattern.

As far back as 745 AD, or whatever the politically correct term is now, a census determined that as many as 5,000 foreigners were living in Xi'an, the so-called "eastern terminus" of the trade route from the Middle East. In terms of the difficulties of travel in those days, it represents a large community.

And today, in the North Western provinces of China, written out in this Blog in a six part series starting in July 2009 by younger son Paul entitled "Travels in China", there is still strong evidence of the Turkic minority in China known as the Uyghers. But the links have gone, so I find it fascinating that business people in the Middle East are once again looking eastwards. Wanting to re-establish ties with an emerging China - and othercountries in the region. Deciding that the future is in the East, and in what my colleagues in the PwC bit of my current working life have dubbed SAAAME. (South America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East).

And if you look at the West today, can you blame them for heading this way?

Hungry Bankers

With bankers ranking around, or maybe just under, politicians in the popularity ratings, having fallen well behind lawyers but still just maintaining a lead over sex offenders, I note that they now appear to have encountered hard times. That said, certain investment bankers are not having to pull in their belts too tightly, as Howard Winn (In his "LaiSee" column - South China Morning Post) pointed out the other day when he showed scant pity towards Lloyd Blankfein's huge drop in salary to a miserable USD12m. (I note, Howard, you generously called the amount "earnings").

 But not ALL bankers are in easy street. I was much intrigued by a report in that purveyor of quality news in Britain, "The Sun" newspaper the other day where it told the tale of a banker (a female one) who was reportedly jailed for 15 months after biting off the top of a gentleman's ear. The poor chap was having a quiet drink with friends - well maybe not that quiet as it was a stag night - when the lady rushed over and bit off the ear. Even after conviction it remains unclear what caused the attack.

Surely you can picture the situation. With bankers being vilified everywhere, with self- esteem clearly at an all time low, and faced with the prospect of maybe being made redundant or worse, or losing large chunks of pay just like Mr. Blankfein, it is leading bankers to resort to desperate measures. But whereas in the past they only wanted blood - now they apparently want flesh too.

 Actually, you could be forgiven for thinking that I have a long term hatred of bankers, but having been one for 40 years that would be a trifle hard to countenance. I feel very sorry for the victim in the case above, but I have to say that the banking profession - or parts of it anyway, seem to do nothing but thumb their noses at the fact that times have - or certainly should have - changed.

 I have been involved recently, wearing one of my variety of hats, in a series of structured discussions with bankers in cities around Asia, and somewhat less structured conversations in the Middle East. All were commercial banks. And the discussions have had a thread of similarity attached, in every place; the perception of banks and the people who work in them. I have to say, it is less marked in Asia than it seems to be in Europe particularly. But share prices are affected across the Board and it matters not whether you are a good, clean, unbailed-out bank, you are nevertheless tarred with the same brush as those who have not been so clever.

But there is not much point in complaining, because people won't listen anyway. You actually have to do something for yourselves. Every bank I have spoken to brought up the subject of service. I agree. In a world where banking products are easily copied, and where they cannot be differentiated significantly, your points of competitive advantage revolve around service. A breadth of product offerings sure, as long as you do them well, and deliver them easily, effectively, and efficiently - and talk to your client base to find out how they have changed.

 In Asia as well as in the Middle East, the demographics are different as are the expectations, from region to region and country to country. If you are 55 years old, and running a financial institution where the average age of your clients is 32, do you actually know what they want - or are you giving them what you think they should have, delivered in what they at least would consider to be an old fashioned way?

 If that is what you are doing, it won't help to change the public perception of bankers, who will become more and more depressed and instead of biting off your hand for new business, they will be biting off your ears!

A Traveller's Tale

The highly entertaining Nury Vittachi, columnist, compére, wit and observer of some of the more bizarre things in life used to write a regular column in the Far Eastern Economic Review called Travellers' Tales; having such things in it as the classic and still passed around (with variations) today, of the "Morny, ruin sorbees"* conversation in a Bangkok hotel. Well, apologies, Nury, I sort of plagiarised it for this Blog today, just because it fits my purpose.

If you travel as much as I seem to be doing, you have to expect the odd "difficult" experience at airports and with airlines and with immigration and particularly with security. If you smile at them they think you are acting unnaturally and if you don't smile, you're obviously behaving suspiciously! The law of averages itself would see to it that somewhere down the line you will fall foul of something or someone. But I guess I have either become anesthetised to the problems so I don't notice them, or if it really is something out of my control then any amount of screaming and shouting isn't going to change anything - so I don't.

Having worked all my life (so far, anyway) in the service industry, I am only too well aware of the things that can go wrong, and that the nearest person you want to take it out on often had nothing to do with the problem. Equally, those complaint letters that find their way into the newspapers seem, in many cases, to be about trivial things and if you ever get into the detail, the complainant was quite regularly a contributing factor to the problem - although you can't tell them that! 

So a word in defence of our local airline - Cathay Pacific - who appear with some regularity in the local press but who last week got me off a plane in Hong Kong that was late in from Kuala Lumpur (arrived gate 62) on to the train, through transit and security, and onto a London flight (departing from gate 1) in 18 minutes flat. Now that's service!

 And before you start getting all - "well he flies a lot so they are bound to take care of him" or, "he flies up the front of the aircraft, so of course they look after him" - get back in your seats! Perhaps only the "he flies a lot" would have any weight - none of the rest of it is true. There was another passenger also going for the same London flight. In addition there were three passengers catching a Los Angeles flight who were afforded the same courtesy. 

I had already accepted the fact that the inbound flight was going to be late in arriving, and while on board the crew had made arrangements for me to catch the midnight flight to London. But on arrival at the gate the Cathay staff were there - and having clearly stated there were no guarantees - off we went. But the wider point here is this. It was not just the cooperation of the airline - it was the fact that the transport system at the airport works so well, and that the security services were also willing to help. And I can think of plenty of airports around the world where that just would not happen!!

 So, thank you Cathay and thank you Airport Authority.

And on the subject of travel, I wonder how many of you read and swear by the comments on the web site Trip Advisor.  I must confess, I do go through them from time to time as I had generally thought they were a useful source of background information. But then I recalled some news articles recently about the "unreliability" of the sites. The UK's Advertising Standards Authority raised serious concerns that not all the reports were genuine, and placed some restrictions on the claims being made by Trip Advisor. So not quite as independent as you might think. 

I am a firm believer in reporting and feedback, as long as it is fair and objective. Criticism is fine - it enables action to be taken, but I have just watched a programme about some of the people who go to various establishments to comment - particularly on Trip Advisor, and oh my goodness!

One "critic" put a pencil mark on the bottom corner of a sheet so he could check whether the hotel changed the sheets or not. Other than it being environmentally unfriendly to wash sheets too often - not something he considered, he said the reason he was concerned was because he had a skin condition and needed his sheets changed regularly. Fair enough, perhaps, but did he think he should tell the hotel about this? Oh no. It was up to them to enquire, he said.

He was the same person who reported negatively on hotel service when he was brought a gin and tonic, instead of a gin and lemonade. The drink was changed immediately and with apologies, but no, the later report marked the establishment down for poor service. (Even his Granny, who was with him at the time, thought it was a bit harsh)

He apparently did not get on very well at school, was bullied, was not academically gifted (I can relate to that!) and was not considered to be good at anything much. But as a "critic" he had found something he was really good at!! You can form your own opinions.

 All I have to say on the subject is that if you are planning a trip and Trip Advisor is your sole guide, maybe you should be digging a little broader and deeper.

* Morny, ruin sorbees - Morning, room service!

 

Is It Just Me?

 While the world to our west continues to stumble and shake its way through a wide variety of woes, uncertainties and yes, silliness, there are at least some things happening in Asia that should give us present and future hope. Myanmar for one is high on my list - and here I think the whole world, for once, is holding its breath in unison hoping that nothing will derail the positive changes that have taken place in that country recently.

And although you may see it differently from me, the recent publicity given to the ousting of a highly placed political leader in China is a positive change. A public display of disaffection related to someone of such a high rank would not have been thinkable until fairly recently. Possible links to crime notwithstanding.

Asia continues to mature ... to come of age, with of course the notable exception of North Korea – but that is a completely different story, and perhaps one that has a different ending in store. Watch that space, I suggest.

 Meanwhile the west wobbles.

Job figures in the USA once again, and as commented on ad nauseam in these columns, have not proved to be as robust as had been hoped. It should never be a surprise. But it led once again to the inevitable sell-off in the stock markets. Europe, meanwhile, meanders towards the odd election. In particular President Sarkozy is looking a little healthier after his handling of the outrage in Toulouse, but although gaining on Francois Hollande he is far from being out of the woods. The future for saving the Eurozone if Hollande is elected looks bleak. And Britain's Conservative Government is looking less and less in touch with the people, even though some of the things they are trying to do are possibly sensible - but the way in which they are being introduced is winning no friends.

The media everywhere is still bashing the bankers indiscriminately. Gotta hate someone – and take the heat off yourself!!

And whilst in the West, some oddities and some amazements. 

Like the idiot who jumped into the River Thames during the annual Oxford versus Cambridge boat race, and who could have lost his life as a result, (a wish of his apparently), protesting again elitism. His five minutes of fame (and let's hope the media just ignore him from now on), ruining the hard work and sweat of 18 athletes who have devoted their lives to reaching this achievement. Eloquently stated by Oxford’s rower Will Zeng when he wrote:

 “When I missed your head with my blade, I knew only that you were a swimmer, and if you say you are a protester, then no matter what you say your cause may be, your action speaks too loudly for me to hear you. I know with immediate emotion, exactly what you were protesting. You were protesting the right of 17 young men and one woman to compete fairly and honourably, to demonstrate their hard work and desire in a proud tradition. You were protesting their right to devote years of their lives, their friendships, and their souls to the fair pursuit of the joys and the hardships of sport. You, who would make a mockery of their dedication and their courage, are a mockery of a man.”

Pictures of the grinning Boat Race “protestor” will hopefully be replaced by something less enjoyable to him when he gets jailed without any attendant publicity.

But of course, the “protest” has far wider implications. In an Olympic year in London, how many more people in a misguided, or purely publicity-seeking venture, will try and create disruption to events being contested by hard working, dedicated, single minded and, in many cases poor, representatives from around the world.

 And staying with the oddities theme, I read that the authorities in New York are cracking down on the use of potentially offensive words in school tests. Amongst the words bizarrely (okay, bizarre to me anyway, perhaps not to you) banned by the city’s Department of Education are “dinosaurs”, which might offend creationists; “birthdays”, as Jehovah’s Witnesses do not celebrate them; and “homes with swimming pools”, because not everyone has one. Quite!

Oh dear! Whatever next, or is it just me that thinks the world has gone mad!!

Earth Hour - Beijing Gets With The Programme

It's Earth Hour on 31 March 2012, and it's just gone 8:30pm. The lights have gone out, so it is a romantic candle lit dinner for one in a Beijing restaurant. (Not a problem; I enjoy my own company!) But Beijing ... a city where the many critics of China will naturally assume they wouldn't pay the slightest attention to the idea of conserving energy. But oh no! Think again. There is hardly a light in sight other than candles and my unfriendly iPad - or none that I can see anyway - although in an attempt to keep the food cooked there is some oven light. And interestingly, the noise level has dropped. The traditionally raucous restaurant has conversations taking place in hushed undertones.

I am pleasantly surprised, and wonder what other cities are doing - both in China and outside. And what this exercise,this global initiative, well-meaning as it may be, is actually achieving. An increased level of awareness about energy conservation? Maybe. A permanent change in behaviour? Probably not. At least not yet!

In the West - yes, maybe there is a greater awareness of the  damage that the lack of environmental control can bring - although I still see little evidence of it being practiced in some places, unless we run events like this on a regular basis as a reminder.

It is a little like people going on a diet and once they have lost the weight they wanted to, then saying to themselves that they have achieved their objectives, and going back to their previous eating habits. The lights switched off tonight - most especially in homes and in empty office buildings, will undoubtedly be on again tomorrow night.

China has pollution problems, as does Hong Kong (semantics - I KNOW it is a part of China), but I am also increasingly convinced that they are becoming more and more aware of the problems. Taking the whole issue seriously, and believing that "education" is part of the solution to the problem.

Certainly tonight, in my part of Beijing anyway, the hour has been fully embraced, and I mean fully - although now the lighting has returned to normal I guess I might have avoided those foods splashes on my shirt if I could have seen what I was doing - but then again, maybe not!

I hope the laundry process, especially the stain remover, is environmentally friendly!!

And The REAL Winner Is .....?

On the one hand - Hong Kong, but on the other?? I really must stop sounding like an economist ...

Talk about fluctuations. The early favourite losing almost all momentum from the outset, and even though the gap narrowed towards the end, the clear winner based on strength, skill and tenacity was .... definitely Fiji!

Oh! You thought I was talking about that other event - the annointing of Hong Kong's next Chief Executive? (Well, you can't really call it an election can you, when hardly anybody votes). More about that in a minute.

But over the weekend, Hong Kong was at its best. As a tolerant host of the Cathay Pacific/HSBC Rugby Sevens, welcoming hordes of overseas visitors, some of whose behaviour and habits would seem outlandish but which was all pretty good natured. I have not seen the attendance figures, but I would be surprised if they were not a record. And - yes I am biased - but so good to see the "auld alliance" back together of Cathay Pacific and HSBC - and even better to see helping to present some of the prizes, HSBC's former Chairman Sir Willie Purves whose early involvement in the Sevens set Hong Kong off on the track of creating what surely must be adjudged one of the best Sevens tournaments in the world. No, THE best Sevens!! Hong Kong does it very well, and although our police force were at full stretch on Sunday with the various events going on - they were unobtrusive. Good for them! Good for us!

And for the other event? What was apparently pre-ordained, was not to be.

But after all the shenanigans at least we were spared the ignominy of having re-runs and second votes. And if the outcome was not what you wanted - sorry, that's life. But you know what - having got it over can we just now get on with it? 

That of course is unlikely to happen. Already we have the analysts, the re-analysts, the commentators who commentate on the comments made by the analysts all trying to give their definitive opinions on what happened, what went wrong, what went right, who is to blame. Is it really any surprise that the first four letters of the word analyst are so wonderfully descriptive?

I thought Henry Tang's description of why he didn't get the position were the most sensible of the whole campaign - "I didn't get enough votes". Well said Henry. I think it is a shame that whoever was advising you did such a bad job, and it is also a pity if the powers that be decided to hang you out to dry, in the interests of - well - themselves really.

The facts seem simple:

a)    CY Leung has received the mandate to be CE of Hong Kong for the next five years.

b)    For whoever is paying attention to us - China in particular, the rest of the world, our trading partners, our competitors (think Singapore, think Shanghai) - we need to demonstrate that Hong Kong is somewhere to be taken seriously, and that we have a lot to offer.

c)    We have had an acrimonious and debilitating run up to the events of this last weekend, making us look rather juvenile. We have some ground to recover.

If we want to drive Hong Kong further into "backwater" status, then let's just carry on as we are, but if we have any pride left in our city - and the Rugby events of the last weekend have left a very positive impression in the minds of many well-placed visitors - then now, right now, is the time to move on.

That includes trying to ensure that C Y Leung is willing to fulfill many of his statements, recognising that the "Occupy Hong Kong" movement under the HSBC Building in Central has made its point (apparently - because I never did see the point of it) and it is time to pack up and move "because you are achieving nothing other than making our city look untidy", and learning from the experiences we have just gone through in how to mismanage public relations.

There is much to be done, and as usual - it is up to us! The "blame" games shouldn't even start. What's done is done - get over it. Wouldn't it be nice if for once we could all try and pull in the one direction and to do what is right for Hong Kong? Then we will know the identity of the REAL winner.

 

Look, Listen ... and Learn.

Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. (Douglas Adams - author of "The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy")

How true is that?

Every day we are regaled with stories of people who never seem to learn from the mistakes of others. Accident "black spots" are designated as such because people never heed the warnings even if they hear about them regularly, and they are well signposted. Political crises occur because the lessons learnt from messes made by previous administrations are not remembered, because ultimately it becomes politically expedient to tread the populist route rather than making the tough calls. Financial crises appear periodically despite the politicians and regulators saying "this is never going to happen again!" after the latest one. To which the rejoinder is always "Oh yes it will!". And it does! We do not learn.  

Of course the learning process does not have to relate solely to mistakes, as given in the above examples.

The ability to listen and learn "positively" is alive and well. I recall occasions not that many years ago when senior figures from Singapore would arrive in Hong Kong and invite small, select groups of Hong Kong businessmen for lunch. They would compliment the invited guests on their successes and then, with them suitably preened, would dredge out of them the "secrets" of their success. Back in Singapore they would sift through the information, pick out the good bits they could use themselves or suitably adapt, and discard the rest. Sadly, because "we knew it all already", there was never a return match.

Singapore today, as many will tell you, is a transformed city. It has picked up ideas that have suited its development and does not worry too much about the "not invented here" syndrome that hinders growth in other cities. If it works, use it! It isn't important where it came from initially.

And they are doing it again. The Economic Development Board in Singapore is flexible in its attitude to attracting talent to the city. It is prepared to cut deals. It will contribute to the salaries of suitable experts from outside Singapore if it means better talent will arrive in the City, develop business, enhance the prestige of the country, transfer their knowledge and contribute to the continued prosperity of Singapore.

Okay - Singapore may not suit everybody, but it is telling a compelling story, and people are listening. Including people from Hong Kong!

And if Hong Kong needs yet another prod that we may not be looking or listening enough - beware the next issue of the Global Financial Centres Index. After the last report that indicated there was little difference now between London, New York and Hong Kong - this latest issue will indicate that Hong Kong is slipping. London has improved slightly and New York is moribund in the index, but Hong Kong has fallen. In fairness, Singapore and Shanghai have fallen too, and we will need to wait until later this month to understand why, and then perhaps we can learn from others? Improve our standings?

Clearly our drop in ratings is not (hopefully) directly connected to the CE race chaos, but it is yet another indication - as if we really need any more signposts -  that Hong Kong should be concerned about its reputation as an IFC, and the mess with Messrs Tsang, Tang & Leung isn't doing the city any good.

There is plenty of good advice available in Hong Kong. Innovative ideas that were once the lifeblood of this city cannot have just disappeared, but perhaps no one is listening.

Meanwhile ... Back In The Real World

As Hong Kong waits with breathless anticipation for further raunchy revelations or alleged underground illegalities to emerge, aimed at besmirching the candidates in the race for election as the city's next Chief Executive, the world around us meanwhile has been witnessing some rather more serious issues that should be commanding greater attention from our somewhat parochial media. 

Elections, for want of a better or more accurate description, have taken place in both Russia and Iran during the last few days. The North Koreans meantime have, once again, successfully pulled the wool over the eyes of a number of countries by offering to talk about the cessation of their own nuclear ambitions in return, as usual, for food to feed their starving masses. And the odious Assad continues to kill his Syrian countrymen, women and children without conscience or any regard for humanity. Like father like son, I guess.

In the case of Russia, the election result which gave back Mr Putin the Presidency he had temporarily had to give up, came as no surprise. Well, maybe not entirely true. While the result was never in doubt in the minds of the foreign community, it surprised the people inside Russia who had been protesting en masse against his "leadership". Perceived to have had a tear in his eye when acknowledging the cheers of his supporters (he said it was the cold wind that caused the damp eyes), maybe he was crying about the fact that he had to pay people to stand and wave their flags in his support.

 But although this was supposed to have been a fair and democratic process, there are certainly not many (actually, not any) people I have spoken to who believe it to have been the case. Allegations of fraud are rife, amid concerns that this marks a reversion to the bad old days of dictatorship. We can but hope not.

On the face of it, better news from Iran - but is it? 

In the 2 March elections for the legislature, a high turnout of voters saw a great amount of support for those allied to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Almost ensuring that Ahmadinejad will not be re-elected President next year. And while the Supreme Leader is not exactly a fan of the West, he is potentially less volatile than the current President.

But how will the President react to this result - given his history? Probably quite badly, but maybe not immediately. There has been much talk in defence circles recently about the heightened level of concern surrounding Iran's nuclear capability and its attitude towards Israel. There is also concern being expressed by the same circles about Israel's potential action - rather than its reaction. The major question being "who strikes first". Not, you will notice, an "if" - but almost a foregone conclusion that a pre-emptive strike is more probable than possible. That surely is worrying.

And still in the Middle East - what about Syria? A matter for the Arab League to sort out -  Western forces really should not intervene, but this is getting to be too much. Whilst I can understand the comment made by a former British Ambassador to Syria who said that even if Assad goes the same way as Gaddafi and Mubarak - hopefully the former in my view - there is no guarantee as to what we might get by way of replacement. A regime not so cold blooded as Assad surely, but then again and regrettably, when the first wave of euphoria at the toppling of Assad is over there will be many scores to settle. Acting under orders or not, you won't get much sympathy from a mob baying for retribution. 

Yes, North Korea has pulled it off once again. How many times is this?  "If you give us some food we will be happy to talk about not proceeding with our nuclear capability"  At least feeding some of the people is the right thing to do from a humanitarian perspective, but come on people - been there, done that, or prove me wrong - Please!! And by the way - nothing on the discussion table about stopping nuclear supplies to Iran?

But, you say, why should any of this bother Hong Kong? We have no political strife, only political satire. We are economically okay. What does a Russian election, a bit of North Korean kabuki which we have all seen before, and the actions of some mad people in the Middle East have to do with us?

Well, potentially quite a lot actually.

If Russia reverts to its old ways, repression, communism, "four legs good, two legs better", markets around the world will get nervous, and China is a little close in proximity to Russia.

North Korea will remain quiet for a little while, as it has done in the past while it consumes its food (not sure who gets it, but looking at the size of the new leader I can make a guess). But then it will start to get a little belligerent again, as it has done in the past. Let's think about this. The "boy", to remain in power, needs the support of some octogenarian generals who will see, at last, an opportunity to do something they have wanted to do for a long time. Something dramatic. They won't care, but China is a little too close for comfort.

If Ahmadinejad wants to make a point to the Supreme Leader that he still has power and, like a cornered snake, decides to attack first then any semblance of stability in the Middle East goes out of the window. This will of course impact the developed world, in the midst of its fragile recovery, and it will impact China. 

And if China is impacted, so too will Hong Kong be, because most of our eggs have been invested in the land mass to the north of us!

It is not a comfortable situation in which we find ourselves, while we hide our sniggers behind our hands at the discomfort being felt by at least one of the candidates for Chief Executive. But if the global situation is not enough to concern us - or at least make us aware that there is a real world out there - also give some thought to the reaction of Beijing to our Hong Kong blues! Could they by now be fed up with their potential poster child? Will they now say enough is enough? They had their chance, but now Shanghai is going to be positioned as the financial centre for China while we really do become what others have predicted - just another city in China.

Our fate, I would argue, is clearly in our own hands.

To Be Or Not To Be ... Hong Kong Elections!

To be, or not to be: that is the question: 

Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer 

The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, 

Or to take arms against a sea of troubles, 

And by opposing end them? 

Wm Shakespeare (Hamlet) 

 Shakespeare had a much greater talent than most of us for expressing ideas succinctly – and asking questions the same way. But while the meaning in this speech by Hamlet was whether it is better to live or die, it is not my intention to go quite that far! 

By freely expressing your thoughts on politics or religion, no matter how well intentioned, you stand to lose more friends than you might expect, which is one reason I rarely get involved publicly, preferring to remain blissfully ignorant on the side lines of the machinations being undertaken - over which I have absolutely no control; not a good situation if you're a bit of a control freak! 

But first, let me take a step back.

Although it might have been the best deal on the table at the time, the return of Hong Kong to China in 1997 left Hong Kong with a somewhat unwieldy or even "unworkable" political structure.

In simplistic terms, the recipe was:

a) Take a Civil Service (and a very good one at that), and call it Government. It was unelected, unable to be voted out of "power", yet it was to be held accountable for whatever decisions it took.

b) Elect 30 representatives by a process of universal suffrage out of geographical constituencies, and 30 representatives from a series of “functional constituencies", generally representing business interests.

c) Create a Legislative Council (Legco), put all 60 representatives inside and call it - for want of a better word - opposition, who are actually accountable for very little.

Although there is provision in Hong Kong's Basic Law for full universal suffrage, this is unlikely to happen for some time yet and therefore political parties in Legco (represented largely by the 30 geographical constituencies) will be waiting a while before they might be in position to form a Government. So they tend to say whatever they think will get them re-elected even perhaps if they think the "Government" is probably correct. But agreeing with the Government does not appeal to most of the 45% (2008 figures; last Legco election) of eligible voters who bother to exercise that right. Apathy reigns with the remainder.

The election of Hong Kong's Chief Executive follows another system. It is an "election" decided by an Electoral Committee that represents around 0.01% of Hong Kong's population

Traditionally it appears to be done on a nod and a wink from Beijing, with their candidate then endorsed by the Committee after, of course, long and serious debate on the merits - or otherwise - of the candidates before them. In the past, the process has been reasonably clear-cut, and so it looked this time round until recently.

The favoured candidate, according to the people who should know, was Henry Tang, until recently the Chief Secretary of Hong Kong - he stepped down to concentrate on running for Chief Executive role. In the background was the seemingly less likely C Y Leung. Former Convener of Hong Kong's Executive Council, and widely reported to be unpopular.

But then the wheels started to come off Mr. Tang's train. First there was his admission last year of infidelity, but his wife stood squarely behind him and all was forgiven apparently. After all, he would not be the first among a list of leaders who have strayed - and undoubtedly will not be the last.

But perhaps strangely, a little before that admission was made came a flurry of views in the Chinese press that were suddenly supportive of Mr. Leung. No particular reason seemed to be forthcoming - but it was as if the media had suddenly woken to the qualities of the candidate in second-place. Being of cynical mind, I don't suppose this would have been anything to do with people in high places becoming aware of the announcement about to be made, and deciding to "float" the idea of a credible new candidate?

And so it has continued. In the best traditions of politicking, little gossipy things were hitting the media on and about both camps - and then came the bombshell. Or should that be bomb shelter!

The "discovery" of an illegal structure having been built under a home owned by Mrs. Tang. Not, of course, the first time that illegal structures have featured in Hong Kong, some belonging to senior people in both private and public sectors, but once found usually dealt with quickly and removed. It is harder though, to remove a 2,300 sq ft (214 sq m) illegal construction built under a property.

The suggestion that it could have been an oversight was hastily dismissed, and then the previously supportive Mrs. Tang was made to tearfully confess that it was all her idea.

If the people who make the decisions about who should, or should not, be elected were worried about the earlier admissions - they must be positively stressed out by this one. But what happens next is beyond the knowledge of a non-Chinese foreigner. We shall have to wait and see, although the question Henry Tang must be asking himself is "To be ... or not to be"?

If the polls are anything to go by, the public view is that Mr. Tang should not stand for election. I can only suggest another quotation, while he thinks about it:

To lead people, walk beside them ... As for the best leaders, the people do not notice their existence. The next best, the people honor and praise. The next, the people fear; and the next, the people hate. 

Lao-tzu - Chinese philosopher - 6th Century BC